Not exact matches
IIRC, the authors were
perturbed by the fact that small changes in the input - value mix of the
model produced large differences in the rate of
climate change.
There may be reason to strongly suspect that in any sufficiently complicated dynamical system
model (such as
climate) with stochastic parameters (e.g., exactly when and where a lightning strike starts a major wildfire or a major submarine earthquake
perturbs ocean circulation in a region or a major volcanic eruption introduces stratospheric aerosols), it is almost certain that any given run of the
model will have periods of significant deviation from the mean of multiple runs.
IIRC, the authors were
perturbed by the fact that small changes in the input - value mix of the
model produced large differences in the rate of
climate change.
Knutti et al. (2006), using a different,
perturbed physics ensemble, showed that
models with a strong seasonal cycle in surface temperature tended to have larger
climate sensitivity.
At UCI I work with Mike and Hossein in using a cutting - edge global
climate modeling framework (UPCAM) to understand the behavior and role of low - level clouds in a
perturbed climate system.
Later there is this sentence: «comparisons of
perturbed - physics ensembles against the observed
climate find that
models with ECS values in the range 3 °C to 4 °C show the smallest errors for many fields (Section 9.7.3.3).»
Any accurate
climate model must succeed in a good description of the basin, both in its natural state and in states
perturbed by regional and global human activities.
In
perturbed physics projections, «a single
model structure is used and perturbations are made to uncertain physical parameters within that structure...» [5] That is, a
perturbed physics experiment shows the variation in
climate projections as
model parameters are varied step-wise across their physical uncertainty.
Collins, M., et al.,
Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of
perturbed physics and multi-
model ensembles.
Figure 1 from Rowlands [4], below, shows «
perturbed physics» projections from the HadCM3L
climate model.
Here we extend the evaluation to those variables and analyse several ensembles; two multi-
model ensembles (MMEs) from CMIP3 and four structurally different single
model ensembles (SMEs, sometimes also referred to a
perturbed physics or
perturbed parameter ensembles) with different ranges of
climate sensitivity.
If there is good reason to suppose that the paradigm is failing or about to fail, as there is with the current
climate paradigm based on GCM
models and a
perturbed equilibrium
model of response to changes in pCO2 or other greenhouse gases, then it becomes incumbent on corporate management to assure that plausible alternatives are investigated to the best of their judgment and ability, including financial.
In general, the histogram of
climate variables only related to dynamical process (SLP, SW clear - sky radiation) tend to be U-shape in SMEs, possibly because
model parameters related to dynamical processes are not generally
perturbed in the SMEs.