Wilson and his team included a checklist of signs that
this phase of bull market is topping out.
By no means are we suggesting that we're bearish on the market; rather, the likelihood is growing that
this phase of the bull market rally may be approaching a level that is unsustainable in the near - term.
To position for the next
phase of the bull market, we recommend:
Living in Silicon Valley, we also saw just how crazy the dot com
phase of the bull market affected many stocks, including the ones we owned via stock options or as part of our regular portfolio.
Small value does best in the first early
phases of a bull market, which is the kind of the data mine in the small cap effect.
Both of these articles make me think we are in the last
phase of a bull market.
It is not history, facts, or intelligence that guide most investors through the final
phases of a bull market; it is hopes and wishes.Richard Russell
Not exact matches
In general, so - called value stocks — often defined as those trading at earnings multiples below the market average or their own historical norms — have tricked a lot
of investors in the most recent
phase of the current
bull market, which has worn on nearly seven and a half years.
When there's a
bull market or the economy is in the expansion
phase of the business cycle, there are plenty
of other investments.
Over the past two years, the behavior
of the stock market can be described less as an ongoing
bull market than as the extended topping
phase of what is now the third financial bubble since 2000.
The manic
phase of the secular
bull that ended in 2000 lasted roughly 5 years.
However, they also have difficulty identifying whether the stock market is indeed in a
bull phase that is climbing the wall
of worry or whether fear is justified and the
bull market is nearing the end.
Encouragingly, prices are also reversing from last year's break out line and I can say the second
phase of a major
bull break out pattern is complete.
Nevertheless, the very fact that chart pictures
of this type make their appearance, as a rule, only at the end or at the final
phases of a long
Bull Market, lends credence to our characterization
of them.
Table 1 shows the years
of each
bull - bear cycle, the length
of the
bull and bear
phase, and depth
of the following bear market.
Bull and bear markets often coincide with the economic cycle, which consists
of four
phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough.
The average length
of the last 13
bull markets was about 1,500 days, making the current
phase two - times longer than average.2 However, the market has a long way to go to extend past the longest
bull market on record that started in 1987 and ended in 2000, lasting nearly 4,500 days.
Remarks: Due to their conceptual scope — and if not explicitly stated otherwise — , all models / setups / strategies do not account for slippage, fees and transaction costs, do not account for return on cash and / or interest on margin, do not use position sizing (e.g. Kelly, optimal f)-- they're always «all in «-- , do not use leverage (e.g. leveraged ETFs), do not utilize any kind
of abnormal market filter (e.g. during market
phases with extremely elevated volatility), do not use intraday buy / sell stops (end -
of - day prices only), and models / setups / strategies are not «adaptive «(do not adjust to the ongoing changes in market conditions like
bull and bear markets).
Any ratio above 1 means that a fund does a good job
of capturing gains during
bull phases while lessening the impact
of bear markets.
That's fine in the
bull phase of the cycle, but it can spell trouble in the bear
phase, when cash flow might go negative and skilled claims adjusters are hard to find.
Practices that can be gooten away with during a
bull phase of the market will fall flat during the bear
phase.
The spread tightening in the
bull phase of the cycle is initially relatively rapid, and gives way to smaller bits
of incremental tightening, until it is too much, or an exogenous force acts on it.
Bull and bear markets often coincide with the economic cycle, which consists
of four
phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough.
Bull markets are usually associated with an expansionary
phase of the business cycle.
They have high or negative P / E multiples near the bottom
of the cycle, because the
bull phase is anticipated.
Due to competitive pressures, that rating is likely to be liberal, but during the
bull phase of the credit markets, that will be hidden.
(Much as I had hubris toward the end
of the
bull phase... let me stab myself.)
On average it takes 2,176 days — nearly six years — after the end
of a
bull phase before the Dow makes its next 1,000 - point gain, explains Rosenberg.
Bull markets have shallower moves and longer duration, the same way that the bull phase of the credit cycle g
Bull markets have shallower moves and longer duration, the same way that the
bull phase of the credit cycle g
bull phase of the credit cycle goes.
I got to see above 30 % «average» return and developed convention after seeing couple
of ace stock pickers like Paul Asset that getting 25 % cagr or above is indeed possible and achievable over long term
of bull and bear
phases.
Anyway, enjoy this if you want, because it outlines my thinking on how to recognize whether you are getting near the end
of the
bull phase of a market.
Despite common perception, secular markets spend a lot
of time in
bull or sideways
phases, and roughly an equal amount in each.
I can spot a bad balance sheet easily, but often companies with the worst balance sheets soar during the
bull phase of the market.
In the
bull phase of the credit cycle there are a few defaults, but when you analyze the defaults, they occur for reasons unrelated to the economy as a whole.
when the amount
of zombie debts drop below a threshold, the credit markets realize that the rest is solvable, and the
bull phase starts, usually with a roar.
Do not be deceived into believing that such bear market rallies are the outset
of a new
bull phase.
It is only a dream that this fund — or any fund — would be at the maximum
of the range for stocks just as the market was entering a
bull phase, or at the minimum stock allocation as the market was entering a bear
phase.
While most commentators are telling you the
bull market has been going on since 2009, the 15 % to 20 % dip in the major indexes from the spring
of 2015 through February 2016 did so much damage to many sectors (commodities, transports, industrials, financials, etc.) and the broad market that it's possible this rally is an entirely new
bull phase — not just an extension
of the last one.
I am not arguing for isolationism in investing, but there is a tendency in the
bull phase of the credit cycle to assume that nations don't default, and so lending to sovereign credits that are weak becomes the trade
of the moment.
Good regulation
of financials limits the ability
of those regulated to be yield hogs, particularly in the
bull phase of the credit cycle.
The lower rated the bonds, the more they fell, which was the opposite
of slower moving but long - lasting
bull phase.
We focus on many key points, but most importantly in the character behavior drive and character traits
of the American Pit
Bull Terrier, American Bully and the puppies must meet all
phases of the sound temperament, our CHampagne Kennels trademark.
Like owners
of Boxers will tell you, if you can get through their puppy
phase you'll have a relaxed and loyal dog for the rest
of their lives.The Boxer is probably best suited for an experience dog owner or an owner with the time and the willingness to train.If the list had included 20 breeds the next ten would have been populated by Basset Hounds,
Bull Terriers, Cairn Terriers, Cocker Spaniels, Doberman Pinschers, Great Pyrenees, Pomeranians, Schnauzers, Shih Tzus, Whippets and
of course, your favorite breed
of dog.
Mark your calendars — this Thursday, November 26th, the next
phase of the wildly popular Red
Bull Island will be released in PlayStation Home.
Hamburg, 13th July 2015 -
Bull, the Atos brand for its technology products and software, today announced that it has completed the first installation
phase of the new supercomputer «Mistral» at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), based on Intel ® Xeon ® E5 - 2680 v3 processors.
The price
of the tokens increases as the
phases pass and it's in this price increase that we are resting a near - term
bull thesis.
There are some indicators
of a
bull phase in its earliest stage.
The early stages
of a
bull phase always cause worries.