Overall, we identified Alsace, Burgundy and Champagne as the most vulnerable regions, where the probability of tardive frost is projected to significantly increase throughout the 21st century for two out of three
phenological models.
However, the latter notably depends on the specific
phenological model, implying a large uncertainty in assessing the risk exposure.
The third
phenological model produces opposite results, but the comparison between simulated budburst dates and observed records over the last 60 years suggests its lower reliability.
Cook, B.I., Mann, M.E., D'Odorico, P., Smith, T.M., Statistical Simulation of the Influence of the NAO on European Winter Surface Temperatures: Applications to
Phenological Modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D16106, doi: 10.1029 / 2003JD004305, 2004.
Not exact matches
«The original maize
model in CLM only has three
phenological stages, or life cycles.
Because poor simulation of meteorological variables is common in climate
models, a determination that meteorological variability is more important for certain variables than leaf variability may point to meteorological bias correction as a more fruitful development path — for certain
model applications — than the development of a dynamic
phenological routine.
In fact, from the validation I have seen and the difference with «naive» 1D
models or purely
phenological extrapolations / fits, you will have to argue a lot before I accept to let them go out of «experimental».