For example, Hansen's recent paper on Scientific Reticence is quite explicit that much of important
physics of ice sheets is not included in the models, hence his raising of matters to do with nonlinear behaviour (eg disintegration) of ice sheets.
To study the concept, NASA scientists used a numerical depiction of
the physics of ice sheets to capture natural sources of heating and heat transport from freezing, melting and liquid water; friction; and other processes.
They used the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a numerical depiction of
the physics of ice sheets developed by scientists at JPL and the University of California, Irvine.
Not exact matches
Another promising approach involves combining
physics, statistical modeling and computing to derive sound projections for the future
of ice sheets.
Scientists may also become able to distinguish between different scenarios sooner by studying the
physics of local
ice -
sheet changes and refining reconstructions
of changes during warm periods in geological history.
The West Antarctic
Ice Sheet: Instability, Disintegration, and Initiation
of Ice Ages, Reviews
of Geophysics and Space
Physics, Vol.
Evolving Understanding
of Antarctic
Ice -
Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea - Level Projections, Earth's Future, 5.
It's interesting to note that most
of these elements include
physics that modellers are least confident about — hydrology,
ice sheets and vegetation dynamics.
And through detailed studies
of the local
physics of ice -
sheet changes and more refined reconstructions
of ice -
sheet changes during warm periods
of the geological past, scientists may become able to distinguish between the two roads sooner.
The problem with the paleoclimate
ice sheet models is that they do not generally contain the
physics of ice streams, effects
of surface melt descending through crevasses and lubricating basal flow, or realistic interactions with the ocean.
For example, how much confidence can we really have in results from
ice sheet models, which very likely miss important mechanisms (e.g., due to limited understanding
of ocean -
ice shelf interactions, calving
physics and influence
of small - scale topography)?
When are we going to see «the
physics»
of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica added to the models?
There will be some clear failures where there are reasons to suspect that some
of the (up to now) excluded
physics is dominant (i.e. Heinrich events that rely on
ice sheet dynamics), but pretty much everything else is fair game — as long
of course there is a good hypothesis to test.
• Thorough understanding
of the
physics and dynamics
of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets, with a view to predicting sea level rise within 20 % for a specified change in climate over the
ice sheets....»
Our physical patterns are based on the
physics of glacier /
ice sheet melt (static equioibrium fingerprints), glacial isostatic adjustment models, and an ensemble
of GCMs to inform the ocean dynamic contribution.
Evolving understanding
of Antarctic
Ice -
Sheet physics and ambiguity in probabilistic sea - level projections.
Evolving Understanding
of Antarctic
Ice -
Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea - Level Projections, Earth's Future, 5.
Climate change research topics identified for immediate action • Thorough understanding
of the
physics and dynamics
of the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets, with a view to predicting sea level rise within 20 % for a specified change in climate over the
ice sheets.
So all it takes is some surface reconstructions and some flux data from a crude GCM to provide a test for a continental scale model
of ice sheets that incorporate basic
physics and include the Schoof mechanism.
Narrowing the range
of late - century projections earlier than that will require studies focused on understanding smaller - scale
ice -
sheet physics and tightening the constraints provided by the geological record.
The continental - scale behavior
of the
ice sheets depends upon difficult - to - model
physics taking place at a much smaller scale.
In the paper, which was published in the open access journal Atmospheric Chemistry and
Physics Discussions, Hansen is joined by 16 colleagues, some
of whom are experts in the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets.
It's interesting to note that most
of these elements include
physics that modellers are least confident about — hydrology,
ice sheets and vegetation dynamics.