One of the most common questions that arises from analyses of the global surface temperature data sets is why they are almost always
plotted as anomalies and not as absolute temperatures.
Not exact matches
The answer is that in figure 3 we are
plotting the solar induced temperature
anomaly relative to the year 1900, and not an
anomaly relative to the mean 1960 - 1990,
as it is usually done for the temperature
as fig 1 show.
McIntyre has a new post where he tries to rescue the previous «projections» — but he confuses the changes in HadSST (ocean temperatures, which he is
plotting) and the changes in HadCRUT3 (the global surface air temperature
anomaly) which is what his projection was for (
as can be seen in the figures in the main post).
Plotting these temperatures
as anomalies (by removing the mean over a common baseline period)(red lines) reduces the spread, but it is still significant, and much larger than the spread between the observational products (GISTEMP, HadCRUT4 / Cowtan & Way, and Berkeley Earth (blue lines)-RRB-:
The line
plot below shows yearly temperature
anomalies from 1880 to 2014
as recorded by NASA, NOAA, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Met Office Hadley Centre (United Kingdom).
The Dome C temperature
anomaly record with respect to the mean temperature of the last millennium8 (based on original deuterium data interpolated to a 500 - yr resolution),
plotted on the EDC3 timescale13, is given
as a black step curve.
The interesting 2nd
plot of Berkeley TAVG temperature
anomalies over the same time frame, also
plotted as a 21 - year running average, shows anomalous global warming since 1975 appears unrelated to group sunspot activity.
Drought always causes higher temperatures, but curiously they also reported that given the lack of rainfall the high temperatures were not
as high
as expected writing, «The scatter
plot shows that 2012 was the driest summer in the historical record, though the temperature
anomaly of +2 °C was exceeded by two prior summers — 1934 and 1936.
Chart # 1 had 1919 - 1943
anomaly plot adjusted to start at same
anomaly point
as 1991 - 2015 period; chart # 2 linear trends are based off
plots of chart # 1; chart # 3 uses 5 - year averages calculated from each period's
anomaly dataset and then the 1919 - 1943 5 yr average was adjusted (i.e. offset) to start at same
anomaly point
as 1991 - 2015 5 yr average; chart # 4 cumulative differences calculation: the December 31, 1943
anomaly minus the December 31, 1918
anomaly and the December 31, 2015
anomaly minus the December 31, 1990
anomaly (both calculations covering a full 300 months).
Clearly the information refers to Average
Anomaly for each month so it is not a continuous variable and would perhaps be better
plotted as points rather than a continuous curve.
I had often wondered about the band of contra - rotating vortices one sees develop over the equator in the SST
anomaly plots,
as in the animation you link to (particularly well - developed in the 12/29-31 / 2008 frames).
And since 2000, we have a nearly constant global mean temperature
anomaly of 0.4 deg C
as shown in the following
plot.
I can
plot the trend lines for
anomalies and Lag 1 residuals
as I have them in that form already.
Do this for each of GHCN (unadjusted), GHCN (adjusted) and NCAR, and
plot the annual average
anomaly as a function of time.
The usual Sea Ice Extent (JAXA daily data
plotted here
as an
anomaly — usually 2 clicks to «download your attachment») shows the crazy excursions during 2016 (a lot less Sea Ice Extent due to a very early melt season and a very late freeze season but with the height of the melt not
as big
as some expected and leaving a lot of ice in - place at the height of te melt).
So the data he
plots are no longer the well defined
anomalies with respect to the base period and in this sense can no longer be regarded
as RSS or UAH temperature
anomalies.
Twenty - year smoothed
plots of averaged ring - width (dashed) and tree - ring density (thick line), averaged across all sites, and shown
as standardized
anomalies from a common base (1881 — 1940), and compared with equivalent - area averages of mean April — September temperature
anomalies (thin solid line).