Not exact matches
Instead, many companies still rely on
spread sheets,
home grown portals or myriad of
point solutions to manage their channel programmes.
With no line movement thus far, more than six out of ten
spread wagers are sticking with Drew Brees and the high - flying Saints to take down their division rivals by at least seven
points at
home.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a big half -
point away from
home dog Indy, three out of four
spread wagers remain confident in the 10 - 4 Texans escaping Lucas Oil Stadium with at least a seven
point win.
Bettors may think that because the average margin of victory exceeds the supposed
point spread value of
home - field advantage, it would be a wise decision to back
home teams.
It's tough to definitively determine the
point spread value of every school's
home - field advantage, but it's clear that it varies greatly.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a big
point away from road dog Arizona, nearly three out of four
spread wagers are going with the 8 - 6 Bengals to secure at least a five
point victory in front of their
home crowd.
The team of analysts at SportsInsights is studying the numbers, especially with regard to the NFL playoffs,
home underdogs,
point spread value, and line movement.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a valuable half -
point away from lowly Seattle, six out of ten
spread bets are confident the «Boys can bounce back at
home to take down the moribund «Hawks by nearly two TDs.
We feel that Little Rock is the second
home of the Pigs and that for several seasons this has been the starting
point for the mania that
spreads like wildfire across the state each fall.
This week they opened as a 4 -
point home underdog and have received just 33 % of
spread bets.
Boston was a two -
point underdog, meaning they covered the
spread as well, but how have
home teams done historically?
When filtering the data down to strictly
home teams receiving less than 20 % of
spread bets, I was wondering what the winning percentage was for
home dogs getting 7 or more
points that are receiving less than 20 % of
spread bets?
Assuming the Eagles play their first playoff game at
home, here are Cooley's projected
point spreads against potential NFC opponents:
In that Thursday night showdown, the Packers closed as 9 -
point home favorites and received 69 % of
spread tickets.
The table below displays the against the
spread (ATS) results of late season NFL games for
home underdogs at two different
point -
spread levels since the start of the 2003 season.
However, with Cam Newton's Panthers taking a step back last week in a 27 -
point loss at
home to the Titans, the betting public is siding with the Lions to bounce back and cover the
spread at
home, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a big half
point away from road dog Carolina.
With the sportsbooks taking a pivotal
point away from the
home dog «Hawks, the betting public is pounding the Ravens, with nearly eight out of ten
spread bets confident Joe Flacco can lead Baltimore to a seven
point win or more in the Pacific Northwest.
Home dogs have produced a win rate of 52.4 % ATS, which is also the break - even
point for
spread bettors (assuming a vig of -110).
However, with the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a pivotal half
point away from road dog Penn State, nearly seven out of ten
spread bets are taking the 6 - 4 Buckeyes to win by at least 7
points in front of their
home crowd and keep the Nittany Lions winless under interim Head Coach Tom Bradley.
Despite the Patriots nearly imploding last week at
home against the winless Colts, nearly nine out of ten
spread bets are sticking with New England to cover in DC, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a pivotal 1.5
points away from the
home dog «Skins.
To perform this analysis, we first researched all
home dogs, then added the
Spread filter to isolate
home underdogs at various
point spreads.
As a result, the betting public is hammering Virginia Tech at
home, with eight out of ten
spread bets confident in an 11 -
point or more Hokie victory at Lane Stadium.
Despite the sportsbooks taking a big
point away from
home dog Tennessee, three out of four
spread bets are going with the 7 - 5 Titans to keep it within a field goal at
home.
Thursday night's game is already attracting a lot of betting activity — and the action is lopsided, with a large
point spread growing because the Public loves the Steelers at
home.
The Titans opened as a 6.5 -
point home favorite and are garnering 72 % of
spread bets, yet the line has dropped to -5, indicating there are big bets backing the Steelers in this week's early action.
With no line movement thus far, the betting public is hammering the Cougars at
home, with nearly nine out of ten
spread bets confident Keenum and Co. can win by at least 20
points at Robertson Stadium.
With no line movement thus far, the betting public remains heavily in favor of Lovie Smith's team at
home, with nearly seven out of ten
spread bets confident the 6 - 3 Bears can take down Phillip Rivers and the jekyll - and - hyde Chargers by at least five
points at Soldier Field.
Despite unranked Mississippi State owning the 17th best scoring defense in the country, nine out of ten
spread bets are confident in # 6 Arkansas winning by at least 14
points in Little Rock in front of their
home crowd, especially after coming off a 49 - 7 blowout of Tennessee last week.
However, the big surprise was how well Christian Ponder played against the vaunted Packers D. With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take away a big
point from the visiting Vikings, six out of 10
spread wagers are banking on Newton to lead Carolina to a four
point or more victory at
home.
With the Rams (+11.5) covering the
spread in their season finale against the 49ers,
home dogs of 8 +
points are now 20 - 8 since 2003.
The Giants were favored by five
points at
home and easily covered that
spread.
Since
home field advantage is typically worth 3 -
points to the
spread, bettors are more likely to take visitors as they are likely to be larger underdogs.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a pivotal
point away from Virginia, three out of four
spread bets are confident that Jacory Harris and the U will continue their dominance and win by at least 14
points in front of their
home crowd.
However, even with the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to give road dog Detroit an additional
point, more than six out of ten
spread wagers are sticking with Drew Brees and the 13 - 3 Saints to win by at least 11 -
points in front of their
home crowd.
Even so, nearly nine out of ten bets are sticking with them to bounce back and cover the
spread against Ohio State, especially after the sportsbooks took a valuable half
point away from the
home dog Buckeyes.
Last week I explained that
home - field advantage has been overvalued by college football bettors, and that visitors have historically provided value on the
point spread.
Any bettor could estimate the Week 17
spread by examining the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for
home field advantage which is typically valued at 2.5 -
points.
-- Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight at 8:10 PM ET and, according to our NBA Betting Trends, the San Antonio Spurs are currently receiving just 44 % of
spread bets as a 5.5 -
point home favorite.
Betting market: New England opened as 13 -
point home favorites and, with the majority of
spread tickets and dollars taking Buffalo, the line has ticked down to -11.5.
With the Patriots streaking and facing a flailing Dolphins team in Week 12, oddsmakers opened the Pats as 17 -
point home favorites, the largest
spread of the season.
With the sportsbooks adjusting their lines to take a half -
point away from Matt Moore and the «Fins,
spread bettors are giving the slight edge to Dallas winning by seven or more and covering at
home.
The last time the Seminoles were
home dogs was last season vs. Clemson and they covered the 4.5 -
point spread in a 37 - 34 loss.
In this contest, Miami received just 43 % of
spread bets as a 3 -
point home favorite but were able to cover the
spread in a 98 - 93 victory.
Over the past decade, there have only been 87 games where a
home underdog of at least 10 -
points has seen at least a 1 -
point reverse line movement while receiving less than 25 % of
spread bets.
The Browns opened as 4 -
point home underdogs at the market - setting Pinnacle sportsbook, and have received just 13 % of
spread tickets and 13 % of
spread dollars.
Prior to news of this injury, the Chiefs were receiving 48 % of
spread bets as a 4 -
point home favorite over the Chargers.
After opening as 12.5 -
point favorites at Bookmaker, public bettors immediately hammered the Warriors, with 61 % of
spread tickets and 85 % of parlay / teaser tickets taking the
home favorite.
As a result, just over eight out of ten
spread bets are sticking with the Saints to cover and win by at least seven
points in front of their
home crowd.
Despite the largest
spread of the week, more than nine out of ten
spread wagers are sticking with the 13 - 0 Packers to cover in a big way, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a pivotal half -
point away from
home dog KC.
However, with the sportsbooks taking a half -
point away from the fast - sinking Bills, nearly six out of ten
spread bets are going with the Jets to cover at
home.