In his first hour in office, the.25 percentage
point rate cut on mortgage insurance premiums for loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) was removed, setting the table for what should be an interesting presidential term for real estate policy.
A 25 basis
point rate cut during last week is the turning point in the interest rate cycle.
Think of it this way, US Dollar LIBOR has only incorporated 16 basis points of the 50 basis
point rate cut, measured from the equilibrium level that existed previous to the latest crisis in 2007.
This is one of those times, and I would not be surprised to see a surprise half -
point rate cut on whatever day the market finally opens for trading.
Toronto - Dominion is the latest major bank to declare a recession in Canada, saying the «balance of probabilities» has tipped in favour of another quarter -
point rate cut next week.
Not exact matches
And just in case traders missed the
point, Wheeler said explicitly that the New Zealand dollar should be weaker and that another interest -
rate cut was likely.
As Poloz indicated in Toronto, if something went terribly wrong tomorrow, he could
cut the benchmark interest
rate by a full percentage
point before trying something else, such as creating money to purchase bonds.
The SNB also
cut interest
rates deeper into negative territory, by 50 basis
points to negative 0.75 percent, in an effort to help cushion the blow.
Ikawa
pointed to BOJ member Koji Ishida's proposal to either
cut or eliminate the deposit
rate, first suggested at the December meeting, but notably absent from the January meeting.
Australian shares were down 0.6 % after the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy board decided to
cut its benchmark interest
rate by 25 basis
points to an all - time low of 1.50 %, as expected.
Timmer: Yeah, so last August which was a key inflection
point for the market — because at that
point, nobody was expecting tax
cuts anymore and the 10 - year Treasury had fallen to 2 %, and the bond market which of course is always pricing in the potential future, was pricing in only one more
rate hike over the subsequent two years.
A bigger problem for Trump and the GOP: Whatever reduced
rate ends up in proposed legislation, critics are bound to
point out that there's little evidence to support the idea that corporate tax
cuts create jobs or raises wages.
The RBI is set to announce its monetary policy decision later Tuesday, with the market forecasting a 25 basis
points cut in policy
rates.
Both strategies have their strong
points: Weekly releases increase return
rates at the expense of initial viewership, while all - at - once releases foster binge - watching but
cut into these series» shelf life.
The faster - than - anticipated closing of Canada's output gap in 2017 drove the BoC to raise
rates twice this summer, fully reversing the 50 basis
points of emergency
cuts introduced in 2015.
Earlier this month, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink
pointed out that low to negative interest
rates are
cutting into retirement savings — forcing workers to set aside more each month to hit retirement goals.
In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
cut its key repo
rate by 25 basis
points to 7.75 percent on January 15, more than two weeks before its scheduled meeting, catching markets by surprise.
Even if you believe the federal government will keep its promises and won't further shift costs to states (and they recently
cut our match
rate to its lowest
point in 25 years), even advocates for Obamacare admit the federal subsidies are front - loaded and that expansion will eventually cost the states.
«We've been through a couple of cycles now where it seemed like central banks could not
cut rates enough to generate a turnaround in the economy, because the starting
point was relatively low,» he says.
On the cost side, the same increase in the policy
rate might
cut output by up to 1 per cent and push inflation down by 0.5 percentage
point relative to what it would have been otherwise.
«Each one percentage
point cut to the corporate income tax
rate costs the federal government about $ 2 billion in annual revenues,» wrote the authors, one of whom was CLC chief economist Andrew Jackson...
Ryan Avent
pointed out that even if we enacted Trump's massive tax
cuts and spending increaes, adding $ 34 trillion in new debt over the next two decades, our ratio of debt to GDP two decades from now would still be 30 percentage
points less than Japan's government debt ratio is right now... and the market is still buying their negative interest
rate long term debt...
(Much of this impression comes from his very first interest
rate decision as Governor in March 2008: a surprise
cut of 50 basis
points in the overnight
rate on the basis of the U.S. outlook.)
Quick answer: no, as the European Central Bank, which has an inate fear of inflation, felt compelled on Thursday by the economic crisis in Europe to
cut its benchmark interest
rates by 0.25 percentage
points, bringing the refinancing
rate to a record low of 0.75 % and the overnight deposit
rate to zero.
Historically, the Fed has responded to recession by
cutting rates substantially, with the benchmark funds
rate falling by 400 basis
points or more in the context of downturns over the past two generations.
At this
point, across - the - board
rate cuts will be in effect, as well as a doubled child tax credit and a nearly doubled standard deduction (the latter two provisions offsetting the elimination of personal exemptions from the individual income tax).
NDP commitments include a two
point cut in the small business tax
rate (already implemented by the Conservatives); extension of the accelerated capital cost allowance for two years (already implemented by the Conservatives (but with a different phase in); an innovation tax credit for machinery used in research and development; an additional one cent of gas tax for the provinces for infrastructure; a transit infrastructure fund; increased funding for social housing; a major child care initiative; and, increasing ODA funding to 0.7 per cent of Gross National Income (GNI).
NDP promises include a two
point cut in the small business tax
rate (already implemented in the budget by the Conservatives); extension of the accelerated capital cost allowance for two years (also already implemented by the Conservatives); an innovation tax credit for machinery used in research and development; an additional one cent of gas tax for the provinces for infrastructure; a transit infrastructure fund; increased funding for social housing; a major child care initiative; increasing ODA funding to 0.7 per cent of Gross National Income (GNI); and restoring the 6 % annual escalator to the Canada Health Transfer.
While we were pleased to learn of the government's September 2017 announcement to
cut the small business income tax
rate from 2.5 per cent to 2 per cent, we note it was accompanied by an increase to the general corporate income tax
rate of one percentage
point (to 12 per cent).
Speaking by phone from Montreal on Wednesday, economist Paul - Andre Pinsonnault predicted Governor Stephen Poloz will
cut the policy
rate by a quarter
point to 0.25 percent next month, matching a record low set in 2009 during the global financial crisis.
The completely unexpected decision by the Bank of Canada to
cut the bank
rate by 25 basis
points was a clear indication that the Bank is concerned about Canada's economic prospects.
History suggests that when recession comes it is necessary to
cut rates more than 300 basis
points.
The interesting, counterintuitive part about that, as Dave Parkinson
points out, is that the bigger the rebound the BoC sees for Q2, the lower the bar for an additional
rate cut becomes.
Euro - Zone Producer - Price Inflation Slows Euro - zone producer - price inflation slowed to its weakest
rate in more than two years in May,
pointing to a slowdown in consumer prices that would give the European Central Bank more room to
cut its key interest
rate.
Amongst other emerging market economies, the only significant policy moves were in Brazil, where
rates were
cut by a further 50 basis
points to 16 per cent, and Turkey, which
cut rates by a total of 4 percentage
points, to 22 per cent.
The Bank of Canada has
cut its policy
rate by a cumulative 75 basis
points so far this year (in three moves) to 2 per cent, against a background of weak GDP growth and subdued inflation.
Similarly, the Swedish Riksbank has
cut its policy
rate by a total of 75 basis
points (in two steps) to 2 per cent, in the face of a larger - than - expected fall in inflation.
In order to support domestic demand, the Bank of Korea
cut its policy
rate by a further 25 basis
points in November, to 3.25 per cent.
Cutting the interest
rate by 10 basis
points to 0.05 % and dropping the deposit
rate to minus 0.2 %, in my view, shows the ECB has done everything it can on interest
rates.
Yet April 30th 2008 was no less critical a turning
point in the recession's history than these other dates, for it was then that the FOMC, having
cut the Fed's target interest
rate to 2 percent, resolved to
cut it no further — drawing a line in the sand by which it unwittingly helped seal the fate of the US, and world, economy.
Analysts
pointed out that this was the first M / M rise in intended job
cuts since March, although some quickly noted that the
rate in the first eight months of the year is around 26 % lower when compared to the same period in 2017.
In cases since 1960 where the slope of the yield curve was inverted, 10 - year bond yields actually rose following the Fed's first
rate cut - an average of 43 basis
points over the next 12 months and 15 basis
points over the next 18 months.
On average, the Fed has
cut interest
rates by 500 basis
points during recessions.
Given an absence of inflationary pressures and weak economic conditions, the ECB
cut its key policy
rate by 50 basis
points to 2 per cent in June.
Following last week's emergency.75 percentage -
point interest
rate cut, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee today slashed
rates another.50 percent in a move designed to ease the mortgage crisis and stimulate the economy.
Against this background, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
cut official interest
rates by 25 basis
points in both June and July to 5.0 per cent.
Last week, China
cut interest
rates for the first time in three years, as economic growth in that country has fallen to the
point where talks of a hard landing are gaining momentum.
They
point to two inflation risk factors: years of setting low
rates by the Federal Reserve, and the possibility that recent tax
cuts will cause the economy to overheat.
This was reinforced later in June by economic data which showed that the economy was not deteriorating further and by the Fed's decision to
cut official interest
rates by 25 basis
points rather than the 50 basis
points that had been widely anticipated.
Other central banks to ease included the Bank of Canada which
cut its policy
rate by 25 basis
points in July to 3.0 per cent, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which
cut a further 25 basis
points to 5.00 per cent in July, after similar - sized
cuts in April and June.