December brought us our first FED quarter
point rate hike in God knows how long.
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on March 21 and approved a quarter -
point rate hike.
A quarter -
point rate hike is considered a «virtual lock» at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, according to the latest Fed Fund futures prices.
Going into today's 2:00 pm Fed rate decision, I expected a quarter
point rate hike, as did practically all of Wall Street.
Kristin Forbes, a member of the committee, voted for a 25 basis
point rate hike.
The bank anticipates a 25 basis
point rate hike at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting followed by 100 basis points of rate increases during 2016.
Having just raised interest rates at their last meeting, the Fed has no plans to follow up in May but Fed fund futures show a 93 % chance of a quarter
point rate hike the following month when economic projections are updated and Jerome Powell holds a press conference.
Despite the Fed's 25 basis
point rate hike, intermediate term investment grade bonds (Corporates and Munis) still squeaked out positive returns in Q1.
Prior to the release of the jobs report, the futures market was assigning a 93.5 percent probability to another quarter -
point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at their mid-June meeting.
That said, to my eye, market expectations derived from futures prices — which price in about one 25 basis
point rate hike through the end of 2017 — appear to be too complacent.
The quarter - percentage -
point rate hike means you'll pay an extra $ 2.50 a year for every $ 1,000 of debt, according to NerdWallet.
The quarter -
point rate hike announced by the Fed was expected.
A 25 basis
point rate hike would see the global real GDP level about 0.4 percentage points lower, with US real GDP falling by about 0.5 percentage points.
There are some estimates that the impact of that is the equivalent of 1 percentage
point rate hike, because it is a form of tightening — you're reducing the money supply.
He said the fed funds futures indicated 2.3 quarter -
point rate hikes this year and after the Fed statement, the futures were barely changed.
Just a few weeks after the market finally had come around to the Fed's way of thinking that three quarter -
point rate hikes would be appropriate this year, the day's trading changed sentiment.
Even so, new projections released by the Fed show that officials expect three quarter -
point rate hikes next year, one more than was forecast in the September projections.
But at least for 2018, we see little chance of the Fed increasing rates beyond a quarterly pace of 25 - basis -
point rate hikes.
The Fed has indicated that three more quarter -
point rate hikes are in store for 2018, but some analysts believe there could be more.
Not exact matches
In the past year, the median outlook for the Fed's top
rate in this
hiking cycle has risen by nearly 60 basis
points to 3.24 percent.
If the Bank of Canada
hikes two more times this year, some households could be renewing at a
rate 75 basis
points higher than what they previously paid, according to Rob McLister, CEO of intelliMortgage Inc. in Toronto.
Even before Wednesday's decision, five of the country's largest banks
hiked five - year fixed
rates 15 basis
points to 5.14 per cent last week.
Usually by the time you get to that
point, say, in»06 or» 07, the Fed
hikes rates aggressively, the curve is inverted, there had been excessive lending against inflated real - estate values.
The Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index inched up 0.1 percent last month,
pointing to subdued inflation which could make Federal Reserve policymakers cautious regarding another interest
rate hike in 2017.
Still, the Fed has persevered in
hiking rates gradually, with this week's raise being the third quarter -
point move in 2017.
And in the U.S., Fed chair Janet Yellen
hiked rates by 25
points on Wednesday evening but signaled no pick - up in the pace of normalization of
rates.
«The fact that they stuck with the three
rate -
hike forecast sends a signal that at this
point they're not ready to adopt a potentially more aggressive stance that a number of people have been talking about for next year,» said Craig Bishop, lead strategist for U.S. fixed income at RBC Wealth Management.
And it also means that bond market traders believe we're likely to see at least a quarter
point hike in interest
rates by the middle of next year.
The market still expects the Bank of England to
hike rates even as recent data
pointed weaker, says Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.
Timmer: Yeah, so last August which was a key inflection
point for the market — because at that
point, nobody was expecting tax cuts anymore and the 10 - year Treasury had fallen to 2 %, and the bond market which of course is always pricing in the potential future, was pricing in only one more
rate hike over the subsequent two years.
It would be the first of several key data
points between now and the Fed's December meeting that could offer clues on the timing of the next interest
rate hike.
The committee approved a quarter -
point hike at the meeting, putting the benchmark funds
rate at a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent.
Ahead of the report, futures markets
pointed to the first
rate hike in September of next year; after the data, they indicated traders were betting
rates would rise in July.
Although the 25 basis
point lift was in line with expectations, markets took some time to digest the news that three
rate hikes — not two, as was earlier expected — were likely to happen in 2017.
At this
point, pretty much any economic data report is of interest to U.S. markets, with the Federal Reserve watching closely for evidence of a sustained economic recovery before it finally implements its long - awaited interest
rate hike.
The contract for September, which is a date many on Wall Street think is ripe for a
hike, indicates a
rate of just 0.43 percent, while December
points to a 0.5 percent
rate, a 0.13 percentage
point increase from the current level that the CME tool translates to a 59 percent chance of a
hike.
It
hiked rates again at its meeting on June 16 by 100 basis
points as inflationary pressures persisted.
Futures markets are still
pointing to just two
rate increases next year, with the next
hike not coming until June.
So if we can expect 3 more quarter -
point hikes this year it would seem to make sense to stick to short - term CDs yielding around 2 % now and then look for a longer - term one at around 3.5 % at EOY, especially if one — I am in this camp — thinks that by EOY the odds of recession will have risen enough that further
rate hikes in 2019 will be looking doubtful.
He
points to a stronger dollar, fiscal retrenchment in the European Union, improving equity market confidence, and an exit strategy from the Federal Reserve forecasting a federal funds
rate hike well before late 2014 as significant factors driving gold lower.
«To have the lack of more substantial wage gains at this
point probably helps to alleviate some of the immediacy on the four - interest -
rate -
hikes - in - 2018 question,» said Hamrick, the Bankrate.com analyst.
The report comes as the Federal Reserve is expected to
hike its benchmark
rate another quarter
point in December.
Now as economic indicators like low unemployment and increased consumer spending tick toward the positive, many economists are
pointing to a limited
rate hike as a way to move the economy towards normalcy after the volatility of the past decade.
I don't think a 25 basis
point hike in the funds
rate, if that's what you're contemplating, will make a big difference to the trajectory of any of the variables I've cited above.
While it may not sound like much on paper, the Federal Reserve «s anticipated move Wednesday to
hike its benchmark interest
rate target up a quarter
point will have ramifications.
U.S. Equity Funds enjoyed a record - breaking surge of fresh money during the second week of March, as investors shrugged off an impending U.S.
rate hike and the internal struggles of Trump's administration and chased a rally that saw the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average Index climb more than 400
points in a day.
Looking ahead: The Federal Reserve recently increased the federal funds
rate by a quarter -
point and the U.S. Central Bank is forecasting at least two more
rate hikes this year.
The downside is that the interest
rate on a HELOC is variable and often tracks any movement in the federal funds
rate, which is expected to increase up to three more times after this week's quarter -
point hike.
A lot of the upward momentum was disproportionately on the front end in response to the Bank of Canada's two consecutive interest
rate hikes in the summer, while yields fell from the 20 - year
point onward.
The Fed also
hiked its benchmark
rate by 25 basis
points, as was widely expected, to a target range of 0.5 to 0.75 percent, only its second
rate hike in a decade.