After speaking with oddsmakers from three different sportsbooks (Bookmaker, CG Technology, and William Hill), I was able to compile the following list of NBA
point spread values.
Though the sum of James, Irving, and Love's individual
point spread values was only 8 - 9 points, the line moved from Cleveland -7.5 to Memphis -7... a lot more than 8 - 9 points.
Clearly oddsmakers believe that these performances were not aberrations, as
their point spread values are on par with established veterans like Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan.
After speaking with representatives from three different sportsbooks (Bookmaker, The Greek, and William Hill), I was able to compile a consensus list of NFL
point spread values.
Players can obviously improve
their point spread value slightly by exceeding pre-season expectations, but the list below provides some insight into the most valuable players in the league.
Bettors may think that because the average margin of victory exceeds the supposed
point spread value of home - field advantage, it would be a wise decision to back home teams.
It's tough to definitively determine
the point spread value of every school's home - field advantage, but it's clear that it varies greatly.
The team of analysts at SportsInsights is studying the numbers, especially with regard to the NFL playoffs, home underdogs,
point spread value, and line movement.
Obviously marquee quarterbacks are treasured commodities, but what is
the point spread value of the league's top field generals?
Not exact matches
If annual
point - to -
point with a
spread is used, the interest credited can be reduced to zero even if the percentage of change in index
value is positive.
The best -
value bets can often be found by going against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives a larger
point spread than is warranted.
Others look for
value as the
point spreads fluctuate in the sports marketplace.
While this might be true in some cases, a large
point spread move often means that
value is disappearing.
According to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for the market - setting Bookmaker.eu, «Romo's
value to a
spread [was] 5 - 6
points.»
Based on this information, we placed Brady's
value to the
spread at 6 -
points and re-assessed the early lines from CG Technology to determine how Brady's suspension will likely impact the Patriots» lines for the first four weeks of the season.
Westgate had this game at Raiders -6.5 prior to Eli's benching, and moved it to -7 following the announcement, meaning, yes, Eli's
value to the
spread right now is a mere half -
point.
Palmer took a huge drop in our
point -
spread tiers from 2016 to 2017, resulting in a
value of approximately 2 - 3
points to the
spread.
While the game itself should make for entertaining television, it's difficult to find
value in such an evenly bet game as the host Giants are currently receiving 56 % of
spread bets as a 4 -
point favorite.
This means his
value to the
spread is around 6 to 6.5
points considering the drop - off to Savage.
This is right in line with Antetokounmpo's «Tier 1»
value of five
points to the
spread.
This reverse line movement is an indicator that sharp bettors have essentially «sold on good news» by allowing the sports media to pump up the perception of Wichita State among fans and recreational bettors, then buying back the inflated
point -
spread value with Dayton.
Last week I explained that home - field advantage has been overvalued by college football bettors, and that visitors have historically provided
value on the
point spread.
Any bettor could estimate the Week 17
spread by examining the previous game between the two teams and adjusting for home field advantage which is typically
valued at 2.5 -
points.
The star center is
valued as roughly 2 -
points to the
spread, so they opened 1 -
point off their Game 1 closing
spread.
A year after its original publication, SportsInsights» book, «Sports Investing: Profiting from
Point Spreads — Finding
Value in the Sports Marketplace» remains a bestseller in its category.
A couple of months ago, we looked at what Elliott's
value to the
spread would be and learned that in most cases, it was just a half
point.
«Romo's
value to a
spread is 5 - 6
points,» reiterated Cooley.
When I reached out to Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu to ask him what Beckham's
value to the
spread would be, he said, «In the end, we may adjust a half
point, but maybe nothing at all because we know the bettors will overreact and supply the adjustment for us.»
That said, there are still several factors
pointing towards
value on both the
spread and the total.
Not only does this prove our original hypothesis, but it also indicates that small underdogs (6.5
points or less) receiving less than 20 % of
spread bets have been a terrible
value for bettors.
Considering home court advantage is worth about 2.5 - 3
points, accounting for Cousins
value to the
spread, the Pelicans should be around a 5 - 6
point dog on Thursday.
Although some bettors may
point to the five
point swing from -13.5 to -8.5, that's not the most accurate way to evaluate Curry's
value to the
spread.
«Always depends on the opponent when assessing
value to a player, but Elliott is generally worth a half
point to a
spread,» said Cooley.
That figure falls in line with earlier analysis, which concluded that Tannehill is a Tier 4 quarterback
valued at 2 - 4
points on the
spread.
Following Derek Carr's injury in Week 16, multiple oddsmakers informed me that Carr is
valued at between 3 - 5
points to the
spread depending on the situation.
With a potential suspension looming, we reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for Bookmaker.eu, to assess Elliot's
value to the
point spread and what kind of adjustment they'd make in response.
Interestingly, we ran a poll asking our Twitter followers their opinions regarding Zeke's
value to the
point spread.
It's also worth noting that last season LeBron James was the only player worth at least 5 -
points to the
spread, but Durant's departure caused Russell Westbrook's
spread value to increase by more than a full
point.
By using the indicators that show the most correlation with game results, we believe that the power rankings can help you to obtain
value versus the
point spread during the NFL Playoffs.
«Romo's
value to a
spread is 5 - 6
points,» stated Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for the market - setting Bookmaker.eu.
Great
value here with the public evenly split in
spread bets, even with the favored Beavers giving up another 1.5
points to the visiting Bruins.
While the majority of the sports world is focused on filling out brackets this week, bettors are less worried about straight up (SU) wins and are instead analyzing
point spreads in order to find
value...
We're still seeing about 70 % of tickets on BC, but at this
point the
value on the
spread is all but gone on the Eagles.
Not surprisingly, quarterbacks were far and away the most valuable position with elite signal callers
valued at 6 - 7
points to the
spread.
By using the indicators that show the most correlation with game results, we believe that the power rankings can help obtain
value versus the
point spread during the NFL Playoffs.
«We've reached a
point where the brand, a brand that can produce these — and when I say franchises, I don't just mean movie franchises, I mean global entertainment franchises whose
value spreads across a transnational media and entertainment empire like Disney or Warner Bros.,» he says.
Recent studies have
pointed to «the
value of strong social networks among teachers for the
spread of reform implementation and innovative climate... and their capacity to change» (Moolenaar & Sleegers, 2010).
Earl: Yeah, a 1 -
point spread on either conversions is a 2 % decrease in
value.
The chart at left shows the
value of the TED
Spread in basis
points, calculated as the 3 Month LIBOR rate minus the 3 Month T Bill rate.
Backing away Balance of payments Balance of trade Balance sheet BAN Bankers» acceptances Basis Basis book Basis
points Bearer Bear market Bear
Spreads Best - efforts underwriting Beta Bid price Blanket fidelity bond Block trade Blue Chip Stocks Blue List Blue List Total Blue Skying Blue Sky Laws Board Broker Bond Bond Anticipation Note Bond Buyer Bond Index Bond Swap Book entry Book
value BP option Branch office Breadth of the Market Breakeven
Point Breakpoint Breakpoint sale Broker Broker / Dealer Broker's broker Bull market Bull
spread Bunching Business cycle Buyer's option Buying power Buy stop