Subtract 29 basis points for the total return, and add back 12 basis
points for mean reversion, and that would leave us at 4.41 %.
Not exact matches
This
means that materials could be ripe
for mean reversion, representing one of the most attractive entry
points in recent memory.
This recent turn of events favoring international equities over U.S. equities could
point to the early makings of a
mean -
reversion following years of outsized gains
for U.S. equities.
In the case of YouGov, this is actually within the normal range of their recent polling (they had the Tory lead at 7 and 8
points in August too) and the MORI poll is probably at least partially a
reversion to the
mean after an anomalously high 45 % score
for the Tories their previous poll.
Value managers are usually looking
for a
reversion to a
mean; trying to identify assets that they consider undervalued at this
point but that they think are going to come back.
I think your
point about using CAPE across countries as a way of allocating money across global equity markets is a good one but it does draw on the cross sectional version of
mean reversion, not the time version that many in the market are using CAPE
for right now.
Perhaps
mean reversion for these strategies still lies in their future, at which
point the typical negative relationship will become evident.
assume
mean reversion at some
point, and wait
for a better pitch), and then asks, «What if my choice is wrong?»
«
For those reasons, we see a
mean reversion play out over the coming months as players look to cash in and late - coming bulls are flushed, with support in the $ 400s, at which
point a pump and dump cycle may start once again,» he said.