Large margins of error in
polar bear population estimates means the conservation status threshold of a 30 % decline (real or predicted) used by the US Endangered Species Act and the IUCN Red List is probably not valid for this species.
Have a look at the details below and see if you come to the same decision I have: that it's not possible to compare WHB «core» area
polar bear population estimates over time.
Is there a mutiny in the works between the IUCN Red List and the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG) over
polar bear population estimates or has there simply been a breach of ethics?
Not exact matches
Recent
estimates suggest a 60 % reduction of the
polar bear population by the year 2050.
Tagged breakup dates, Churchill, counting
polar bears, Derocher, early breakup,
estimates, Ontario,
polar bear,
population numbers, Wapusk National Park, western hudson bay
Tagged Amstrup, BBC, Carbon Brief, declining
population, declining sea ice, Derocher, GWPF, IUCN
Polar Bear Specialist Group, Kara Sea, media attention, PBSG,
polar bears,
population estimates, rapid response team, The Times, threatened, vulnerable, Webster
Tagged aerial survey, early breakup, endangered, invalid methods, later - than - average breakup, mark - recapture,
polar bear,
population estimate, Seth Stapleton, Southern Beaufort, Southern Hudson Bay, threatened, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Wapusk National Park, western hudson bay
At present, the global
population of
polar bears is
estimated to be 22,000 to 31,000.
Note that both the IUCN PBSG (2014 update) and Environment Canada (2014 assessment) use a
population estimate of 1030 for Western Hudson Bay
polar bears (even PBSG 2013 assessment was «1000»).
Once you presuppose that climate change is happening, it doesn't take a leap of faith to incorporate the assumption into models to
estimate the health of
polar bear populations, the progress of glaciers, and the vulnerability of Arctic sea ice.
This is the 1st anniversary of Canada providing
population estimates and trends independent of the pessimistic prognostications of the IUCN / SSC
Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG)-- so let's celebrate the recent triumphs and resilience of
polar bears to their ever - changing Arctic environment.
Polar bears are one of the most sensitive Arctic marine mammals to climate warming because they spend most of their lives on sea ice.35 Declining sea ice in northern Alaska is associated with smaller
bears, probably because of less successful hunting of seals, which are themselves ice - dependent and so are projected to decline with diminishing ice and snow cover.36, 37,38,39 Although
bears can give birth to cubs on sea ice, increasing numbers of female
bears now come ashore in Alaska in the summer and fall40 and den on land.41 In Hudson Bay, Canada, the most studied
population in the Arctic, sea ice is now absent for three weeks longer than just a few decades ago, resulting in less body fat, reduced survival of both the youngest and oldest
bears, 42 and a
population now
estimated to be in decline43 and projected to be in jeopardy.44 Similar
polar bear population declines are projected for the Beaufort Sea region.45
This is Fig. 8 from Lunn et al. (2013), the most recent report on the
estimated size of the Western Hudson Bay
polar bear population.
Tagged Amstrup, Derocher,
estimates, global warming,
polar bear,
population decline,
population numbers, predictions
If nothing is done to reverse possible scenarios outlined in the report, scientists warn that the global
polar bear population —
estimated at about 8,500 — could start to see significant trouble.
What «something» other than science might a
polar bear scientist be tempted to use in
estimating the
polar bear population?
Tagged breakup, Churchill, climate change, East Greenland, global warming, grizzly, grizzly
bears, habitat, Henrik Hansen, hybrids, Nunavut,
polar bear,
Polar Bears International, polarbearscience,
population estimate, problem
bears, radio, sea ice, sea ice declines, Wapusk National Park, western hudson bay, WWF