«Furthermore, the models predict that
polar temperature trends should greatly exceed the tropical values — and they clearly don't... In fact, the Antarctic has been cooling,» adds Singer.
«Furthermore, the models predict that
polar temperature trends should greatly exceed the tropical values — and they clearly don't... In fact, the Antarctic has been cooling,» adds Singer.
Not exact matches
The
temperature plots show
trends for increasing annual
temperatures in recent decades, especially within the Upper Midwest and Alaska, which are indicative of
polar amplification.
And this one does graph
trend lines for
polar stratospheric
temperature that on average over recent years would correlate to the
trend line for area for PSCs in the article being discussed:
As a final comment on
polar amplification, I don't think you could argue the south pole
temperature trends offer much support for model performance.
it is very likely that the current
trend will continue with
polar temperatures rising much faster than the rest of the world [two and a half times faster at the moment.]
And this one does graph
trend lines for
polar stratospheric
temperature that on average over recent years would correlate to the
trend line for area for PSCs in the article being discussed:
Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea ice is shrinking,
polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and
temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global
temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of
temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
There is no imperfection in this reality, it is happening whether we miscalculate or misestimate, the correct focus would be on the
polar regions which truly reflect world
temperature trends.
I mentioned
polar amplification explaining
temperature warming
trends being greater at higher latitudes.
The remaining
polar stations had similar
trends, but a longer cooler period until around 1990 but don't surpass the 1930 - 1940s in recent
temperatures.
If recent
trends continue, the Arctic will be ice - free on January 30, 2018 at 6:04 AM, with
polar temperatures averaging -31 C. Ocean and Ice Services Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
That is the
temperature trend that is reflected by a fair accounting of UHI and that is not amplified by
polar extrapolations.
One of the authors of the Monaghan et al. group had previously examined
trends in
temperature «inferred from skin
temperatures from Advanced Very Hi - Res» Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments on
polar orbiting satellites» and found «a statistically insignificant cooling
trend over continental Antarctica from 1982 to 1998.»
As a result, only 1 out of 7 Global or Land / Ocean (ie, global less
polar regions)
temperature indices shows a negative
trend over that period (HadCRUT4 -0.002 + / - 0.059 C / decade).
We note, however, that the
polar regions, where recent warming has been greatest, are overrepresented in the 9 % of the Earth's surface for which observed
temperature trends are not available.