If it does indeed relate to the climate system, it raises the possibility that predictions of
future polar warming are also too low.
The three dozen authors conclude that existing climate models are missing crucial feedbacks that can significantly
amplify polar warming.
It seems to me that much of the so -
called polar warming is because, where the ice has receded, they compare the surface water temperature to the preceding surface ice temperature, which would be invalid, of course.
As can be seen, there has been a cooling trend - granted, a very tiny -0.04 °C / century, but it remains far removed from the IPCC's unicorn science of «amplified» and
dangerous polar warming.
But a new study suggests the Arctic's cap of cold, layered air plays a more important role in
boosting polar warming than does its shrinking ice and snow cover.
And a major focus is evidence that
winter polar warming events are increasingly connected to blizzards and storms in places like Europe and North America.
As this
relative polar warming increased during February, the NASA maps show that colder than normal temperatures expanded over North America through Canada and parts of the Northern U.S. even as a cold spell began to blossom in Europe.
We conclude that the mechanism put forth by previous studies (e.g. Francis and Vavrus [FV12]; Liu et al. [2012]-RRB-, that
amplified polar warming has led to the increased occurrence of slow - moving weather patterns and blocking episodes, is unsupported by the observations....
Nevertheless, the title «Attribution
of polar warming to human influence» [my emphasis] is a bit misleading.
For Hans Ahlmann, a main publicist of non-anthropogenic «
polar warming,» see Sörlin (2011).
And that
this polar warming is increasingly associated with severe weather events in the middle latitudes and especially over the land and North Atlantic mid latitude zones.