In the tropics oceans absorb energy on average before it is transported
poleward by currents and generally given up to the atmosphere.
After the warm surface waters have been stripped and pumped
poleward by the wind, the subsurface waters are cooler than before.
On the surface, it releases more heat than normal, which is carried
poleward by normal atmospheric processes.
They've shifted
poleward by up to 5 degrees so far since 1979:
«We estimate that the jet streams in both hemispheres have shifted
poleward by roughly 1 degree latitude in both summer and winter seasons,» the researchers, led by Qiang Fu of the University of Washington, write in today's Science.
Conversions of that kind must play some role in the 9.4 W / m2 of total energy carried
polewards by the Hadley circulations, though I'm not clear as to what.
Not exact matches
The paper, «The
Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity,» was co-written
by Emanuel, James P. Kossin of the University of Wisconsin, and Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
«If they move another two to three degrees
poleward in this century, very dry areas such as the Sahara Desert could nudge farther toward the pole, perhaps
by a few hundred miles.»
So there is evidence that the birds can bounce back, and the team's modelling indicates that they will very probably try to adapt to their changing circumstances
by colonisation Bouvet Island, and
by increasing their numbers on Heard and South Georgia islands, which should benefit from improved foraging conditions as the APF edges ever
poleward.
Then there is the increased
poleward flow of the ocean currents — partly driven
by Hurricanes, I understand.
Motor - independent targeting of CLASPs to kinetochores
by CENP - E promotes microtubule turnover and
poleward flux.
the additional oxygen decrease beyond that is strongly correlated with decreased subsurface primary production and strengthened
poleward flows
by the California Undercurrent.
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data for
poleward expansion of the tropical circulation
by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
The magnitude and sense of net fresh water flow between the Arctic and Nordic Seas is determined
by the difference between
poleward flowing saline Atlantic waters and southward flowing fresh waters.
Also, the overall number of ozone molecules destroyed in a vertical column of air was pretty much the same as the number of molecules transported into this column
by the average
poleward and downward transport of air in the stratosphere.
Here we are talking about modification of atmospheric circulation —
poleward expansion of the dry, descending portion of the Hadley Cell circulation
by a few degrees, associated shifts in the jet stream.
Turns out that hurricanes apparently act as a heat pump sending water from the tropics
poleward, feeding into the process
by which we are losing the arctic ice cap.
Scientists are still trying to decide how the
poleward heat transport will be affected
by global warming — but the rapid changes at the poles seem to involve a lot of heat transport into that region via both the atmosphere and the oceans.
Is less
poleward transport of heat
by the Gulf Stream as the AMOC weakens a positive feedback for global warming, since that energy will escape more slowly in the humid (higher water vapor GHG effect) tropics than near the poles?
The amplitude of the pattern defined
by the leading empirical orthogonal function of winter monthly mean NH MSLP anomalies
poleward of 20 ° N (Thompson and Wallace, 1998, 2000).
Indeed that
poleward shift was supposed to be accompanied
by a tropospheric hot spot as the enhanced upward energy flux was then constrained
by extra GHGs so that the «surplus» energy was retained in the troposphere and thereby denied to the stratosphere which then cooled as per observations and despite the «normal» warming of the stratosphere that would otherwise have been expected from the highly active sun at the time.
«Changes in the
Poleward Energy Flux
by the Atmosphere and Ocean as a Possible Cause for Ice Ages.»
Most models reasonably represent the
poleward increase of reflected shortwave radiation in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, presumably because part of this is carried
by the influence of specified surface features such as the Saharan desert and Tibetan Plateau.
«If they move another 2 to 3 degrees
poleward in this century, very dry areas such as the Sahara desert could nudge farther towards the pole, perhaps
by a few hundred miles,» said study team member John Wallace from the University of Washington.
As discussed
by Henry Stommel, these flows are balanced in the region of the western boundary, where a thin fast
polewards flow called a western boundary current develops.
Landmark studies included Parmesan (1996), finding a latitude shift attributed to climate change in a North American butterfly (Edith's Checkerspot, photo (c) 2004 Jeffrey Pippen,
by permission), and Parmesan et al. (1999) with «the first large - scale evidence of
poleward shifts in entire species» ranges» from Europe.
But the broad long - term changes in the climate projected
by models are for trade winds to weaken while mid-latitude westerly winds strengthen and move
poleward.
The positive AO phase is characterized
by a low - pressure center anomaly over the entire Arctic basin or polar cap (the region
poleward of 60 ° N) and high - pressure center anomalies in each ocean basin in the mid-latitudes.
Conversely, during low solar activity during the Little Ice Age, transport of warm water was reduced
by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop in the sun's output will produce a similar cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down in the
poleward transport of ocean heat.22 Should we prepare for this possibility?
And despite being Antarctica's most
poleward coastline, there has been a great loss of glacier ice around the Amundsen Sea, illustrated
by redder tones, causing a net loss of ice for the continent.48
The post 1995 AMO and Arctic warming is the natural response to the decline in solar wind pressure since then,
by it increasing negative NAO / AO conditions, and thereby increasing the
poleward heat transports.
So the emphasis shifted to
poleward shift of climate zones with particular emphasis on rain and desert belts moving such that agriculture is disrupted
by great changes in precipitation patterns.
The average temperatures
poleward of 60Lats then are still going to be cool and the rest of the world is not going to warm
by much.
A simple engine model (nothing new here but simplification) with the firebox in, say, 20S to 20N and the exhaust 50 - 60Lat and
poleward effected
by air and water circulation (return circulation of cold for re - heating).
This widening and the concomitant
poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied
by large - scale drying near 30 ° N and 30 ° S.
The Arctic surface air temperature is strongly effected
by atmospheric forcing and atmospheric energy circulated
poleward which creates the Arctic Winter Warming and Sudden Stratospheric warming events.
23) A returning warm pulse will try to expand the tropical air masses as more energy is released and will try to push the air circulation systems
poleward against whatever resistance is being supplied at the time
by the then level of solar surface activity.
As I have documented before Parmesan has «inaccurately» blamed CO2 warming for extinctions due to lost habitat from urban sprawl, hijacked conservation success to argue
poleward movement of butterflies was caused
by climate change, and blamed CO2 and extreme weather for a population extinction caused
by logging while neighboring natural populations thrived.
Challenges also remain for altimeter measurements
poleward of the 66 ° turning latitude of the reference missions and in regions covered
by sea ice.»
But in the southern hemisphere, the
poleward contraction of the high clouds is balanced
by an expansion of the already extensive low cloud decks, which ends up blocking more sunlight and producing a small surface cooling.
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data for
poleward expansion of the tropical circulation
by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
What they discovered was that the
poleward shift of the clouds, which occurs in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, connected more strongly with the expansion of the tropics, defined
by the general circulation Hadley cell, than with the movement of the jets.
This unusual flow pattern allowed cold air to spill southwards and be replaced
by warm air moving
poleward.»
A
poleward shift of the Hadley circulation
by 5 degrees in two decades is not climate change?
All of the warming since the LIA can easily be explained
by increases in
poleward ocean heat transport.
The proximal cause of the precipitation deficits was the recurring
poleward deflection of the cool - season storm track
by a region of persistently high atmospheric pressure, which steered Pacific storms away from California over consecutive seasons (8 ⇓ ⇓ — 11).
In our present simulations, the ocean's depth is reduced to 100 m with five layers so as to achieve a rapid equilibrium response to forcings; this depth limitation reduces
poleward ocean transport
by more than half.
This is obvious
by noting how species distributions have already been shifting
polewards as the world warms.
The current cooling phase has been accompanied
by an increase in size of the
poleward high pressure systems and a sinking equatorward of the jet streams in both hemispheres.
That is occurring despite the recent El Nino which really ought to have pushed the jets more
poleward if one goes
by the precedents set
by the El Ninos between 1975 and 2000.