Warm and saline water transported
poleward cools at the surface when it reaches high latitudes and becomes denser and subsequently sinks into the deep ocean.
The cooler Arctic then promoted formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW in the upper frame of Figure 13) as salty Atlantic waters transported
poleward cooled and brine rejection increased as more Arctic sea ice formed.
Not exact matches
We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records from
poleward of 60 ° N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive
cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
As the air rises and moves
poleward, it dries,
cools, sinks, and returns back to the surface completing this atmospheric cycle both north and south of the equator.
For example, they predicted the expansion of the Hadley cells, the
poleward movement of storm tracks, the rising of the tropopause, the rising of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling of the transmission of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse effect that results from increased water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the
cooling of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
I would suggest these small aerosols have a large effect on the saturated adiabatic
cooling and heating cycles and the transport of water vapor latent heat
poleward.
Indeed that
poleward shift was supposed to be accompanied by a tropospheric hot spot as the enhanced upward energy flux was then constrained by extra GHGs so that the «surplus» energy was retained in the troposphere and thereby denied to the stratosphere which then
cooled as per observations and despite the «normal» warming of the stratosphere that would otherwise have been expected from the highly active sun at the time.
However, there is also the expansion of the Hadley Cells where water vapor from tropical ocean evaporation rises, water in the form of rain falls out as the air
cools with increased altitude, then dry air descends at
poleward edge of the cells in the dry subtropics.
For falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving
poleward during a
cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or
cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.
If you have faith in the climate models and have any knowledge of what they do with reduced
poleward ocean heat transport, then you are expecting
cooling unless the AMOC should speed back up.
Conversely, during low solar activity during the Little Ice Age, transport of warm water was reduced by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop in the sun's output will produce a similar
cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down in the
poleward transport of ocean heat.22 Should we prepare for this possibility?
The meridional
cool phase occurring from the 1940s to 1970s and 1990s to present consists of equatorward winds over the continents and
poleward winds over the subarctic and sub-antarctic oceans, resulting as Rossby wave formations.
The average temperatures
poleward of 60Lats then are still going to be
cool and the rest of the world is not going to warm by much.
Going
poleward it's
cooler.
But in the southern hemisphere, the
poleward contraction of the high clouds is balanced by an expansion of the already extensive low cloud decks, which ends up blocking more sunlight and producing a small surface
cooling.
If the surface pressure distribution begins to shift to a more meridional / equatorward pattern as it did around 2000 then if previously it was in a
poleward / zonal mode it is clear that warming will have ceased and
cooling has begun due to more global cloudiness and less solar energy getting into the oceans.
You wrote, «In addition to moving warm Pacific water
poleward, the removal of the warm Pacific tropical surface waters exposes the atmosphere to huge amounts of
cooler sub-surface Pacific water.
In addition to moving warm Pacific water
poleward, the removal of the warm Pacific tropical surface waters exposes the atmosphere to huge amounts of
cooler sub-surface Pacific water.
After the warm surface waters have been stripped and pumped
poleward by the wind, the subsurface waters are
cooler than before.
Before 2006, our warm salt subduction mechanism does not allow the Atlantic to
cool when its subpolar salinity was increasing, because
poleward transport of warm salty water and increasing subpolar subduction are parts of the same mechanism of enhanced AMOC upper - ocean transport.
So unless the air circulation becomes more zonal /
poleward again we will continue to see more incursions of both polar and equatorial air masses into the mid latitudes (with the greater extremes that implies) but with a generally
cooling trend.
This circulation and its
poleward heat transport must exist to balance the surface energy budget, especially the strong longwave
cooling term (e.g. Warren 1996).
Species that already live on the tops of mountains or in the Polar Regions (such as the polar bear) will be unable to migrate upward or
poleward into
cooler habitats and so risk extinction.
As the air moves
poleward, it
cools, becomes more dense, and descends at about the 30th parallel, creating a high - pressure area.
The proximal cause of the precipitation deficits was the recurring
poleward deflection of the
cool - season storm track by a region of persistently high atmospheric pressure, which steered Pacific storms away from California over consecutive seasons (8 ⇓ ⇓ — 11).
So you need to look at a wide range of indicators all of which have independent sources of error (for instance, errors in satellites are not likely to be correlated with errors in weather stations or ocean buoys) and see if your understanding matches all of the different aspects that you expect from the theory (stratospheric
cooling, ocean warming, Arctic melt,
poleward and upward expansion of biomes etc...).
The air circulation systems move latitudinally
poleward or equatorward depending on whether there is net
cooling or warming of the air at a gradual if variable rate all the time and climate shifts in any given location depend mainly on the changing position of that location in relation to the latitudinal position of the major air circulation systems.
The current
cooling phase has been accompanied by an increase in size of the
poleward high pressure systems and a sinking equatorward of the jet streams in both hemispheres.
This bend in the jet draws warm air
poleward and
cool air southward without greatly affecting the global mean temperature.
That makes sense because a
cooler stratosphere weakens the inversion at the tropopause so as to provide reduced resistance to upward energy transport which would allow the jets to move
poleward.
For true falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving
poleward during a
cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or
cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually powerful Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar turbulence and a warming ocean phase.
The air circulation systems in both hemispheres move
poleward and the ITCZ moves further north of the equator as the speed of the hydrological cycle increases due to the
cooler stratosphere increasing the temperature differential between stratosphere and surface.
The stratosphere
cooled, the polar oscillations weakened (positive) and the jets moved
poleward throughout the active solar spell.
Stephen Wilde (15:32:31): i) SSTs don't work globally whatever happens above the southern oceans because from 1975 to 2000 there were lots of strong El Nino episodes yet the stratosphere
cooled and the polar oscillations were very weak (positive) with the jets well
poleward.
We found that relative to the global - mean trends of the respective layers, both hemispheres have experienced enhanced tropospheric warming and stratospheric
cooling in the 15 to 45 ° latitude belt, which is a pattern indicative of a widening of the tropical circulation and a
poleward shift of the tropospheric jet streams and their associated subtropical dry zones.
It is no surprise therefore that coastal marine species have shown some of the fastest responses to climate change in any system, with species - specific responses to thermal stress causing
poleward shifts in biogeographic distributions towards
cooler environments, as well as changes in phenology and regime shifts.
Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted on March 13, «As the cyclone tracks more
poleward (south), it will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and
cooling sea surface temperatures that will slowly erode it.