For true falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving
poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually powerful Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar turbulence and a warming ocean phase.
However the jets certainly moved
poleward during the late 20th century warming spell as per this:
For falsification we would need to observe events such as the mid latitude jets moving
poleward during a cooling oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.
Not exact matches
This study found that associated with a
poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin, the number of atmospheric river days increases much more significantly in Alaska
during spring because both increased moisture and increased wind speed gang up to increase the frequency of atmospheric rivers.
So in Greenland it got warmer both because of higher CO2, more sunlight at high latitudes
during summer, AND because of increased
poleward heat flow.
The
poleward shift of the jets
during a period of active sun was always inconsistent with AGW theory.
[2] Thunderstorm activity, or convection, within the band is dependent upon the season, as the more equatorward portion is most active in the Southern Hemisphere summer, and the more
poleward portion is most active
during transition seasons of fall and spring.
Conversely,
during low solar activity
during the Little Ice Age, transport of warm water was reduced by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop in the sun's output will produce a similar cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down in the
poleward transport of ocean heat.22 Should we prepare for this possibility?
Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed
poleward shift of the jet
during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.
Poleward of latitudes 66 ° 30 ′ N and 66 ° 30 ′ S, the tilt of the planet is such that for at least one complete day (at 66 ° 30 ′) and as long as six months (at 90 °), the Sun is above the horizon
during the summer season and below the horizon
during the winter.
Take solar vs. GHGs: 1.5 W / m2 solar change (TOA) over a solar cycle has a large effect in the stratosphere:
During a solar cycle, the largest change is in the short waves: 10 % more during high solar activity: that affects ozone building, the temperature in the stratosphere and increases the polewards flow in the stratos
During a solar cycle, the largest change is in the short waves: 10 % more
during high solar activity: that affects ozone building, the temperature in the stratosphere and increases the polewards flow in the stratos
during high solar activity: that affects ozone building, the temperature in the stratosphere and increases the
polewards flow in the stratosphere.
Sev Clarke, a prominent inventor of green and climate restoration technologies describes the methane threat this way: «If we don't restore the ice, within 15 years methane and CO2 emissions from land and sea are likely to become so intense as to interfere substantially with normal cropping, to push land cultivation and population
polewards, and to render much of the tropics unbearably hot
during summer.
The ITCZ wandere with the seasons, but the
poleward shift amplitude is mainly solar cycle induced: thus
during high solar activity, the ITCZ and the jet stream position is more
polewards, at low activity more equatorward.
Poleward shifting was observed
during the late 20th century warming, and it is well know that the zones shifted equatorward
during the Little Ice Age.
The
poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere middle latitude jetstream in response to increasing carbon dioxide is one of the most robust circulation responses found in climate change experiments, and is predicted to occur
during all seasons (IPCC, 2007c).
NSF - funded scientists believe at least part of the answer lies in the frozen tundras of Siberia, where greater - than - average autumn snowfall causes weather patterns in the Arctic regions to shift southward into the midlatitudes
during the winter, while less - than - average snowfall causes the patterns to retreat
poleward.
Their spatial extent towards the tropics moves with the jet stream, extending farthest towards the tropics (about 35 deg latitude)
during winter and retreating
polewards (
polewards of 50 deg latitude)
during summer.
«You have sort of this tug - of - war between the jet being pulled equatorward
during the summer because of the ozone recovery and the greenhouse gases pulling the jet further
poleward,» Grise said.
During the recnt warming spell the jets moved
poleward.
Most of the observed decline in the latitudinal temperature gradient
during the Pliocene can be explained by increased
poleward heat transport.