Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data for
poleward expansion of the tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
Here we are talking about modification of atmospheric circulation —
poleward expansion of the dry, descending portion of the Hadley Cell circulation by a few degrees, associated shifts in the jet stream.
There is evidence in satellite and radiosonde data and in observational data for
poleward expansion of the tropical circulation by as much as a few degrees of latitude since the 1970s [34]--[35], but natural variability may have contributed to that expansion [36].
Climate models predict expanding Hadley Cells as the climate warms, meaning
a poleward expansion of the subtropical desert zones.
A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increased moisture to other areas.
«We think, but have not yet been able to establish, that this is connected to independently observed
poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation,» Emanuel says, referring to a large - scale pattern of global winds, which in recent years has also moved further poleward.
Not exact matches
While a 2009 estimate calculated that the tropical zone was expanding
poleward at a rate
of 222 to 533 kilometers every 25 years, the new report estimates that the
expansion is occurring more slowly — between 138 and 277 kilometers per 25 years.
For example, they predicted the
expansion of the Hadley cells, the
poleward movement
of storm tracks, the rising
of the tropopause, the rising
of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation
of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling
of the transmission
of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse effect that results from increased water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy
of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling
of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
On global vs. local, how about the global model prediction
of a deepening and widening
of the tropical atmospheric circulation, which leads to the Hadley cell
expansion and the projection
of the dry zones expanding
polewards.
I guess I would feel better about this kind
of juxtaposition if the
expansion of the low - productivity zones described here were primarily
poleward.
On the one hand, models do pretty well at capturing the
poleward expansion in the Southern hemisphere but only if they include the effects
of the Antarctic ozone hole!
I think it would be great if you did focus on the atmospheric
poleward expansion and some
of its implications in another article.
Scientists say the record drought is due in part to the
expansion of the Hadley Cell — the atmospheric regions on both sides
of the equator that circulates warm tropical air
poleward — which is known climate change signal.
However, there is also the
expansion of the Hadley Cells where water vapor from tropical ocean evaporation rises, water in the form
of rain falls out as the air cools with increased altitude, then dry air descends at
poleward edge
of the cells in the dry subtropics.
Numerous recent studies based on both observations and model simulations indicate that reduced Barents - Kara sea ice in late fall favors a strengthened and northwestward
expansion of the Siberian high, increased
poleward heat flux, weakened polar vortex, and ultimately a negative AO.
Extratropical cyclones have three stages
of expansion: the developing stage, in which an undulating wave develops along the front; the mature stage, in which sinking cold air sweeps equatorward west
of the surface low - pressure centre and ascending warm air moves
poleward east
of the cyclone; and the occluded stage, in which the warm air is entrained within and moved above the polar air and becomes separated from the source region
of the tropical air.
But in the southern hemisphere, the
poleward contraction
of the high clouds is balanced by an
expansion of the already extensive low cloud decks, which ends up blocking more sunlight and producing a small surface cooling.
The Hadley cell shows a clear signal
of poleward expansion, while
poleward movement is present but less clear in the jet stream and mid-latitude storm tracks.
What they discovered was that the
poleward shift
of the clouds, which occurs in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, connected more strongly with the
expansion of the tropics, defined by the general circulation Hadley cell, than with the movement
of the jets.
One projected (and possibly already detected) result
of global warming is an extension
of the
poleward arm
of the Hadley cell that will cause an
expansion of the area under the drying influence
of subtropical high pressure (2, 20).
So you need to look at a wide range
of indicators all
of which have independent sources
of error (for instance, errors in satellites are not likely to be correlated with errors in weather stations or ocean buoys) and see if your understanding matches all
of the different aspects that you expect from the theory (stratospheric cooling, ocean warming, Arctic melt,
poleward and upward
expansion of biomes etc...).
The
expansion of the tropical belt that we attribute to black carbon and tropospheric ozone in our work is consistent with the
poleward displacement
of precipitation seen in these models.