This system involves the sinking of cold saline waters in the subpolar regions of the oceans, an action that helps to drive warmer surface waters
poleward from the subtropics.
Secondly, though the models assume that the concentration of water vapor will increase in the tropical mid-troposphere as the space occupied by the atmosphere warms, advection transports much of the additional water vapor
poleward from the tropics at that altitude.
Waters moving in the western boundary currents adjacent to the major gyres (North and South Pacific and Atlantic basins and the Indian basin) transport large quantities of heat
poleward from the tropics.
and the area of the earth
poleward from the 60 latitudes constitutes ~; 13.5 % of the globe, then this area is responsible for 0.135 x 3.0 = 0.4 C degrees contributed to global temperature anomaly.
So one can rationalize the result that the centers of action for internal variability in the oceans migrate
poleward from the tropics and subtropics to higher latitudes as one moves to lower frequencies.
So pushing rain
polewards from the temperate NH mid-latitudes?
Not exact matches
While there are regional differences in the
poleward movement of cyclones, the fact that every ocean basin other than the northern Indian Ocean has experienced this change leads the researchers to suggest, in the paper, that this «migration away
from the tropics is a global phenomenon.»
Some of the storms that begin in the Gulf of Mexico may move
poleward and eastward right
from their inception.
We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy temperature records
from poleward of 60 ° N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
So there is evidence that the birds can bounce back, and the team's modelling indicates that they will very probably try to adapt to their changing circumstances by colonisation Bouvet Island, and by increasing their numbers on Heard and South Georgia islands, which should benefit
from improved foraging conditions as the APF edges ever
poleward.
Researchers found that due to warming waters, the edge of the sharks» range could shift as much as 40 miles
poleward per decade, pushing the sharks away
from the warming oceans near the equator into different habitats.
For example, they predicted the expansion of the Hadley cells, the
poleward movement of storm tracks, the rising of the tropopause, the rising of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling of the transmission of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse effect that results
from increased water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
Turns out that hurricanes apparently act as a heat pump sending water
from the tropics
poleward, feeding into the process by which we are losing the arctic ice cap.
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes in the THC
poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data
from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the decline in minimum extent and volume of sea - ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.
There are many lines of independent empirical evidence for global warming,
from accelerated ice loss
from the Arctic to Antarctica to the
poleward migration of plant and animal species across the globe.
Indeed that
poleward shift was supposed to be accompanied by a tropospheric hot spot as the enhanced upward energy flux was then constrained by extra GHGs so that the «surplus» energy was retained in the troposphere and thereby denied to the stratosphere which then cooled as per observations and despite the «normal» warming of the stratosphere that would otherwise have been expected
from the highly active sun at the time.
Stronger mid-latitude westerly wind maxima have occurred in both hemispheres in most seasons
from at least 1979 to the late 1990s, and
poleward displacements of corresponding Atlantic and southern polar front jet streams have been documented.
An important one is additional
poleward energy transport, but contributions
from local high - latitude water vapour, cloud and temperature feedbacks have also been found.
The ACC closed the refrigerator door and resisted
poleward heat transport
from the tropics.
However, there is also the expansion of the Hadley Cells where water vapor
from tropical ocean evaporation rises, water in the form of rain falls out as the air cools with increased altitude, then dry air descends at
poleward edge of the cells in the dry subtropics.
«If they move another 2 to 3 degrees
poleward in this century, very dry areas such as the Sahara desert could nudge farther towards the pole, perhaps by a few hundred miles,» said study team member John Wallace
from the University of Washington.
The lime green splotches near the equator in each hemisphere depict the trade winds, and the areas
from about 35 °
poleward show dominant mid-latitudes westerlies.
Landmark studies included Parmesan (1996), finding a latitude shift attributed to climate change in a North American butterfly (Edith's Checkerspot, photo (c) 2004 Jeffrey Pippen, by permission), and Parmesan et al. (1999) with «the first large - scale evidence of
poleward shifts in entire species» ranges»
from Europe.
However periodically due to increased
poleward heat flux the winds slacken around the polar vortex and may even reverse direction and flow instead
from east to west.
Mechanistically, atmospheric heating
from black carbon and tropospheric ozone has occurred at the mid-latitudes, generating a
poleward shift of the tropospheric jet, thereby relocating the main division between tropical and temperate air masses.»
Panel (a) shows CRUTEM3
poleward of 20 ° N
from 1988 — 2010 for the four seasons: winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), and autumn (SON).
The meridional cool phase occurring
from the 1940s to 1970s and 1990s to present consists of equatorward winds over the continents and
poleward winds over the subarctic and sub-antarctic oceans, resulting as Rossby wave formations.
There, planktic δ18O records
from cores MD95 - 2010 and MD99 - 2304 (for core locations see Fig. 7e) document a climatic optimum in the early - middle part of the LIG between about 126 and 116 ka, related to a strong
poleward extension of warm Atlantic Water61, 62, 64.
Warm currents transport heat
from lower latitudes
poleward and tend to occur on the western sides of oceans.
Extratropical cyclones have three stages of expansion: the developing stage, in which an undulating wave develops along the front; the mature stage, in which sinking cold air sweeps equatorward west of the surface low - pressure centre and ascending warm air moves
poleward east of the cyclone; and the occluded stage, in which the warm air is entrained within and moved above the polar air and becomes separated
from the source region of the tropical air.
As I have documented before Parmesan has «inaccurately» blamed CO2 warming for extinctions due to lost habitat
from urban sprawl, hijacked conservation success to argue
poleward movement of butterflies was caused by climate change, and blamed CO2 and extreme weather for a population extinction caused by logging while neighboring natural populations thrived.
Sev Clarke, a prominent inventor of green and climate restoration technologies describes the methane threat this way: «If we don't restore the ice, within 15 years methane and CO2 emissions
from land and sea are likely to become so intense as to interfere substantially with normal cropping, to push land cultivation and population
polewards, and to render much of the tropics unbearably hot during summer.
12: Indigenous Peoples).91, 101 Warming also releases human - caused pollutants, such as
poleward - transported mercury and organic pesticides,
from thawing permafrost and brings new diseases to Arctic plants and animals, including subsistence food species, posing new health challenges, especially to rural communities.165, 166 Positive health effects of warming include a longer growing season for gardening and agriculture.5, 167
There has been a
poleward shift and intensification of the mid-latitude depressions in the North Atlantic
from the 1950s to the early 2000s, which is linked to a
poleward shift in Northern Hemisphere jet streams.
This is associated with a
poleward shift of the westerlies at the surface (see Section 10.3.6) and in the upper troposphere particularly notable in the Southern Hemisphere (SH)(Stone and Fyfe, 2005), and increased relative angular momentum
from stronger westerlies (Räisänen, 2003) and westerly momentum flux in the lower stratosphere particularly in the tropics and southern mid-latitudes (Watanabe et al., 2005).
The primary effect of the two tropical Hadley cells (one for each hemisphere) is for the rising hot air at the equator to suck surface air
from the higher latitudes (north and south) along the surface towards the equator, pump it vertically at the equator, and at a suitable height push it
polewards, one pole per cell, up where the jet planes fly.
At present they are limited to guesses about ENSO but have nothing adequate about any other oceanic cycles and nothing about air circulation shifts apart
from seasonal changes and a simple observation that warming moves them
poleward.
The water vapour released
from the north Atlantic adds greatly to the
poleward deliveries of vapour through the atmosphere, and helps to make the northern shores of the Atlantic snowy.
Figure 3 compares the GISS analysis of global temperature change with the case in which the polar regions, specifically regions
poleward of 64 degrees latitude, are excluded
from the analysis.
A wide range of other observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and increased ocean heat content) and indications
from the natural world (such as
poleward shifts of temperature - sensitive species of fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary - scale warming.
If it makes it to the surface, it would amplify the temperature of the
poleward flowing current
from the equator surely?
The proximal cause of the precipitation deficits was the recurring
poleward deflection of the cool - season storm track by a region of persistently high atmospheric pressure, which steered Pacific storms away
from California over consecutive seasons (8 ⇓ ⇓ — 11).
So you need to look at a wide range of indicators all of which have independent sources of error (for instance, errors in satellites are not likely to be correlated with errors in weather stations or ocean buoys) and see if your understanding matches all of the different aspects that you expect
from the theory (stratospheric cooling, ocean warming, Arctic melt,
poleward and upward expansion of biomes etc...).
In some cases, extensive gene flow or assisted migration
from populations in warmer parts of the range may enhance the genetic potential for rapid evolutionary response of
poleward populations (e.g., Kuparinen et al., 2010).
Any excess at the tropics would get shifted
poleward and increase L relative to DLR away
from the tropics.
When a large surge of polar air moves equatorward it draws a pulse of energy
from the oceans in the lower latitudes and pumps it into the stratosphere where most of that energy is pushed out to space but a portion is not pushed out and descends again thus strengthening the high pressure systems on the
poleward side of the mid latitude jets.
As you may recall I say that the ocean phases also have an effect so if you have a weak ocean phase when there are a lot of sunspots the lack of
poleward pressure
from the weak oceanic influence fails to take full advantage and allows the AO to remain stronger than it otherwise would be on the basis of solar activity levels alone.
The warmth
from the oceans pumps energy upwards but the quiet sun prevents the
poleward movement of the jets.
If a more active sun were to warm the stratosphere I would expect to see a negative AO
from an intensified inversion at the tropopause with more equatorward jets and not a positive AO with more
poleward jets.
Stephen Wilde (15:32:31): i) SSTs don't work globally whatever happens above the southern oceans because
from 1975 to 2000 there were lots of strong El Nino episodes yet the stratosphere cooled and the polar oscillations were very weak (positive) with the jets well
poleward.