Losing ice, reducing
the poleward temperature gradient, and warming the entire climate system should contribute to increasing the likelihood of anomalous storms.
What we * do * suggest is that the weakened
poleward temperature gradient owing to the rapidly warming Arctic relative to mid-latitudes (Arctic amplification) should increase the north - south component of the upper - level flow, making highly wavy jet - stream patterns (like the one this winter) more likely.
Not exact matches
Ocean
temperatures between 82 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit seem to be «ideal for the genesis of tropical cyclones,» Emanuel says, «and as that belt migrates
poleward, which surely it must as the whole ocean warms, the tropical cyclone genesis regions might just move with it.
We present a synthesis of decadally resolved proxy
temperature records from
poleward of 60 ° N covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into the Little Ice Age.
The issue is that the APF is heading
poleward, and if global
temperatures continue to rise as expected, the front is likely eventually to move out of the range of many foraging king penguins, the research suggests.
Meanwhile, increasing
temperature and ocean warming may lead to the reduction of diatom production as well as cell size, inducing
poleward shifts in the biogeographic distribution of diatoms.
Despite large year - to - year variability of
temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average
temperature) moving
poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].
Changes here have a long term effect, affecting the strength of the north - ward horizontal flow of the Atlantic's upper warm layer, thereby altering the oceanic
poleward heat transport and the distribution of sea surface
temperature (SST — AMO), the presumed source of the (climate) natural variability.
And no, there is no huge plunge in tropical or global surface air
temperatures when the ocean circulation spins up because there is a near - compensating decrease in
poleward heat transport via the atmospheric circulation.
There tend to be a sharp
temperature drop
poleward of the polar fronts, and it is no coincidence that this is the same regions where the storm tracks lie.
The flow of energy between different circulation patterns is dependent on fram of reference (Eulerian vs transformed Eulerian); The Ferrel Cell is the result of some average upward motion
poleward of some average downward motion with return flows at lower and higher altitudes, superimposed on the average
temperature distribution.
Of course, there are plenty of negative feedbacks as well (the increase in long wave radiation as
temperatures rise or the reduction in atmospheric
poleward heat flux as the equator - to - pole gradient decreases) and these (in the end) are dominant (having kept Earth's climate somewhere between boiling and freezing for about 4.5 billion years and counting).
An important one is additional
poleward energy transport, but contributions from local high - latitude water vapour, cloud and
temperature feedbacks have also been found.
Temperatures there are strongly dependent upon
poleward transport of heat.
Satellite
temperature measurements show similar warming; most glaciers are shrinking; lakes and rivers are freezing later and thawing sooner; oceans are expanding; plant and animal communities are mostly moving
poleward.
The average
temperatures poleward of 60Lats then are still going to be cool and the rest of the world is not going to warm by much.
Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed
poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface
temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.
and the area of the earth
poleward from the 60 latitudes constitutes ~; 13.5 % of the globe, then this area is responsible for 0.135 x 3.0 = 0.4 C degrees contributed to global
temperature anomaly.
The Arctic surface air
temperature is strongly effected by atmospheric forcing and atmospheric energy circulated
poleward which creates the Arctic Winter Warming and Sudden Stratospheric warming events.
The
poleward spread of this and other pathogens is expected to continue as winter
temperatures warm.
Take solar vs. GHGs: 1.5 W / m2 solar change (TOA) over a solar cycle has a large effect in the stratosphere: During a solar cycle, the largest change is in the short waves: 10 % more during high solar activity: that affects ozone building, the
temperature in the stratosphere and increases the
polewards flow in the stratosphere.
Direct effects of increasing
temperature on marine and freshwater ecosystems are already evident, with rapid
poleward shifts in regions, such as the north - east Atlantic, where
temperature change has been rapid (see Chapter 1).
Despite large year - to - year variability of
temperature, decadal averages reveal isotherms (lines of a given average
temperature) moving
poleward at a typical rate of the order of 100 km / decade in the past three decades [101], although the range shifts for specific species follow more complex patterns [102].
An active sun gives more zonal jets and / or more
poleward climate zones with less global cloudiness and more energy into the oceans for gradually strengthening El Ninos as compared to La Ninas and a gradual rise in global tropospheric
temperatures.
Figure 3 compares the GISS analysis of global
temperature change with the case in which the polar regions, specifically regions
poleward of 64 degrees latitude, are excluded from the analysis.
A wide range of other observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and increased ocean heat content) and indications from the natural world (such as
poleward shifts of
temperature - sensitive species of fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide incontrovertible evidence of planetary - scale warming.
If it makes it to the surface, it would amplify the
temperature of the
poleward flowing current from the equator surely?
If surface
temperatures were correlated positively with latitude, and
temperature increased, one would expect a
poleward shift of oceanic biota.
Recent meta - analyses indicate that on average, examined terrestrial species have been moving
poleward about 1.76 km / yr (reported as 17.6 + 2.9 km / decade), apparently keeping pace with regional
temperature change, although species range shifts to higher elevations have on average lagged behind climate (Chen et al., 2011).
This bend in the jet draws warm air
poleward and cool air southward without greatly affecting the global mean
temperature.
The thing is that as regards the sequence of observed events leading to changes in tropospheric
temperature trends and the cyclical
poleward and equatorward shifts in the air circulation systems the NCM is pretty robust.
This trend is shifting climate zones and isotherms (lines of a given average
temperature)
poleward, at a rate of about 50 - 60 kilometers
The air circulation systems in both hemispheres move
poleward and the ITCZ moves further north of the equator as the speed of the hydrological cycle increases due to the cooler stratosphere increasing the
temperature differential between stratosphere and surface.
A robust feature of the response of climate models to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is the
poleward retreat of terrestrial snow and sea ice, and the polar amplification of increases in lower - tropospheric
temperature.
Several mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain this reduced
temperature gradient, including increased
poleward heat transport, decreased ice albedo, and changes in cloud cover (Fedorov et al., 2006).
However, the mechanism of increased
poleward heat transport can not be the only physical mechanism driving the reduced
temperature gradient because it is in fact the surface
temperature gradient that ultimately drives the flux of heat
poleward.
Most of the observed decline in the latitudinal
temperature gradient during the Pliocene can be explained by increased
poleward heat transport.
back to the horizontal gradient, if the upper tropospheric thermal wind shear increase is greater than the decrease of the lower layer, then maybe the overall baroclinic instability would be stronger — but currently the upper level eddy circulations do not transport much heat
poleward, so would the structure of cyclones change so that a deeper layer of air is involved in the thermal advection, compensating for a weaker
temperature gradient?
We find that an increase in
poleward heat transport by the tropical ocean results in a warming of the extra-tropics, relatively little change in the tropical
temperatures, moistening of the subtropical dry zones, and partial but incomplete compensation of the planetary - scale energy transport by the atmosphere.
Additionally, there will also be changes in the
poleward energy transport, which is simulated to increase with rising
temperature [15].
This is one of the simplest models for the pole - to - equator surface
temperature distribution and ice latitude on a spherical planet in the presence of
poleward heat transport.
Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted on March 13, «As the cyclone tracks more
poleward (south), it will encounter increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface
temperatures that will slowly erode it.
We have analyzed the data (and also the dat
poleward of 49N / S with particular interest in the land surface
temperatures through the 1930 - 1970 period.
Through baroclinic instability, the potential energy associated with
temperature gradients is converted into the energy in atmospheric eddies that dominate the heat and angular momentum transport
poleward of the subsiding region of the Hadley cell.