aud usd and nzd usd fundamental daily forecast monetary
policy divergence likely to keep pressure on aussie kiwi
Not exact matches
The
divergence in
policy between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada is happening: the Fed
likely will raise interest rates at least a few times in 2017, while the Canadian central bank
likely will do nothing at all.
We expect interest rates to rise, as U.S. and eurozone monetary
policies gradually normalize, though structural factors and further central bank
divergence are
likely to keep a lid on rates.
However, the era of ever - widening
policy divergence through interest rates is
likely behind us.
Additionally, based on the theme of monetary
policy divergence on a global basis, we would anticipate that, all things equal, the US dollar will
likely strengthen versus other developed markets» currencies, particularly over the longer term.
However, further regional
policy divergence, slow emerging markets growth and global liquidity risks are
likely to keep market volatility higher, meaning effectively navigating a low - return world will remain a challenge.
This profile is broadly in line with that presented in the February Statement on Monetary
Policy, though recent movements in world oil prices are
likely to introduce a
divergence between headline and underlying measures of inflation in the short term.
Against this background, we think that the
divergences in the monetary
policies of the major economies are
likely to become more apparent, which could increase pressure on some central banks and magnify market volatility.
This
policy divergence will
likely have ramifications for assets prices in Europe and for bonds in particular.