Sentences with phrase «polling than in reality»
Obama is exactly the kind of figure that the Bradley effect says should do better in polling than in reality.
https://politics.stackexchange.com/ Not exact matches
Consequently, the possibility to nowcast a campaign, that is, to track trends in real time and capture (eventual) sudden changes (so called «momentum») in public opinion faster than is possible through traditional polls (for example, the results of a TV debate), becomes a reality.
But hang on: a very similar poll YouGov conducted for PoliticsHome in 2008 showed a 145 seat Conservative majority if voting had taken place randomly at that moment, and an exact repeat in 2009 showed 70, but by 2010 the reality was... less than zero.
Unlike in May 2015 though I've a good idea of what went wrong (the turnout model we used for the poll weighted down people who didn't vote at the last general election, when in reality turnout ended up being higher than the last general election), which is something that can be worked on.
Reality is that nothing will even be looked at until after the 2012 elections — and only then if the Democrats are considerably more successful at the polls than in 2010: which looks likely, given recent Republican insanities: but who knows?
Such reality is further revealed in a survey conducted by LendEDU in November 2017 with approximately around 77 percent of the polled 565 Americans claiming that Bitcoin price will increase higher and faster next year than its seventeen-fold appreciation in 2017.