The pollsters did not provide cost - of - living data, however, or regional differences reflecting high housing expenses in urban and coastal California — a reason many teachers move to other states or quit the profession.
The parties didn't see it coming, the pollsters didn't see it coming and the pundits didn't see it coming.
He goes on to attribute part of the victory to ignorance and racism that pollsters don't adequately take into account:
Sometimes I load the question the way political
pollsters do: «Daddy has been....
A jump in the computers would be likely, with pollsters perhaps being swayed by the Buckeyes being on a bye (
pollsters do that sometimes).
I could produce other instances, but what I am saying is that
the pollsters do seem to underestimate the conservative vote.
But pollsters don't ask voters if they should be governed by laws emerging from a corrupt process.
None of
the pollsters do.
The other pollsters don't give us much help — Populus also had Labour in steep decline, Ipsos MORI had them recovering.
Somewhere around a fifth of people normally tell pollsters they don't know how they would vote in an election tomorrow.
About half the current regular
pollsters do their research online, about half do it by telephone.
The idea of scoring responses for correctness has been proposed before, but Prelec's «truth serum method» is the first one where
the pollster does not have to know anything about the subject in advance.
He noted that most people and pollsters don't realize that the fall of the dollar precipitated all of this.
Not exact matches
Pollsters typically ask roughly 1,000 people a question like: Whom
do you plan to vote for?
«We saw the numbers but we
did not project it would be that significant a falloff from 2008 and 2012,» Steve Mitchell, a Michigan
pollster who conducted the Fox 2 / Mitchell poll in the state, told Business Insider.
«If this is true, it will be a real challenge for the polling industry to figure out how
do we account for what seems to be an anti-establishment segment of the population who won't talk to
pollsters,» he continued.
Like
pollsters and data scientists have been
doing for decades, we normalize our data against U.S. census data, ensuring that our panel of millions accurately matches the U.S. population to remove any age or gender bias (though urban geographies are slightly over-represented in our panel).
«Healthy» treats: Consumers tell
pollsters they want healthy fast food — then they don't buy it.
«Democrats just tell a
pollster, «No, I don't like it.
When you listen, you'll hear how
pollsters in the most recent presidential election didn't get it wrong.
And this just in: 52 per cent of British Columbians don't vote, but
do answer calls from
pollsters.
Polling
done a year ago by another well - known
pollster, Abacus Data, indicated similarly high levels of support and an identical level of opposition for the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project that currently dominates news coverage in both Alberta and British Columbia.
As for the carbon tax,
pollster Janet Brown
did an extensive poll in Alberta for CBC (there have been many articles on it in the last week on CBC) and one of the interesting findings was that 66 % of Albertan's are still against the carbon tax and want it eliminated.
Protestantism in 1934 included the overwhelming majority of Americans, and today 49 percent of people surveyed tell
pollsters they «prefer» various forms of Protestantism — or 58 percent will
do so if one includes black Protestantism, though we shall see that formally it differs from other Protestant bodies.
I'm saying it doesn't mean what the
pollster and government are presenting it to mean.
Such comments may also antagonize college graduates, who tell
pollsters by overwhelming margins that they don't want to associate with a white nationalist party.
White evangelicals indicated the most frustration toward the press,
pollsters, and the Democratic Party, giving each a lower grade than their fellow Christians or American voters overall
did.
Many people who tell
pollsters that their religion is «None,» he maintains, mean only that they don't belong to a specific church.
Veteran Israeli politicians expect the Obama administration to give Israel an ultimatum later this year to make peace with the Palestinian Authority» that is, with a political entity that is kept alive on the West Bank by an American - trained militia and the Israeli Army, and that is headed by a prime minister, Salam Fayyad, whose party won 2 percent of the vote in the last elections and who faces a constituency two - thirds of which tells
pollsters that it doesn't want any deal with a Jewish state.
The largest discrepancies between the oddsmakers and the
pollsters involved Michigan, Texas and Florida, but that doesn't mean those teams are offering value.
While I am not a
pollster, I'd guess that half of American Spurs fans don't mind Arsenal so much and dislike Chelsea more.
The information is typically protected by data protection rules and is zealously guarded by political parties, who
do not like
pollsters and journalists sniffing around their membership for changes in mood.
«If Hawkins
does that well on Election Day — something third party candidates often don't
do — then it will almost certainly make this year's race closer than four years ago and keep Cuomo well below his total vote from 2010,» said Siena College
pollster Steve Greenberg.
Few predicted the correct outcome of the 2015 general election but why
did the
pollsters get it quite so wrong?
Somehow, I don't think Trump's
pollsters have any more knowledge on how to
do proper polling, so that eliminates incompetence on the news media part and only leaves intentional misleading or willful ignorance as the only other plausible explanations.
If this is the case, then opinion
pollsters still have a lot of work to
do.
Do some people respond to
pollsters with their heart, and then vote with their heads?»
Nagourney
does try to reach an Edwards
pollster who was against the idea of using the haircut video at the YouTube debate, but the guy didn't return his call — and apparently there was no one else in the entire world available to offer some perspective and perhaps a critique of the campaign's strategy.
Such numerical values allow
pollsters to quantify expected voter turnout but they
do not say why respondents are more or less likely to head to the polls.
Set survey questions
do not allow
pollsters to unpack these micro-level personal concerns and experiences in the same way conversations can.
«Voters
do look at gender,» said Celinda Lake, a prominent Democratic
pollster.
Developing from work he
did for the Conservative Party in his Deputy Chairman role, since 2010 [46] Lord Ashcroft has been a major independent public
pollster of British political opinion.
Siena
pollster Don Levy: «When we took a look specifically at three functions of government and asked New Yorkers «Who
do ya think is
doing a better job, local or state,» - there's where the big difference really jumps out.
Siena
pollster Steve Greenberg notes that 71 percent of respondents gave Governor Andrew Cuomo a negative rating for his work to reduce corruption, and that Cuomo and the Legislature «
did little to win over the hearts and minds of New Yorkers» when it comes to ethics reform.
The British history of polling misses
does seem exceptional however when compared to the track record of
pollsters in some other countries.
Women
do tend to prioritise issues such as the NHS, education, and welfare at elections more than men, and data from numerous
pollsters suggests that this election is no exception in this regard.
When asked by
pollsters what they would vote, these voters answered «Don't Know», rather than admit to supporting the Conservative Party.
And it didn't help matters that Bloomberg's 2009 campaign manager Bradley Tusk and
pollster Doug Schoen met with and advised former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr. while he was mulling a never - realized primary challenge to Gillibrand.
In fact, the
pollster who came closest with an eve - of - election poll in 2005 (GfK NOP)
did it with a slightly smaller sample than this.
At least as surprising is Nigel's apparent view that
pollsters are trying to
do anything other than reflect public opinion as accurately as they can.