A
"polynomial fit" refers to the process of finding a mathematical equation (a polynomial) that accurately represents a set of data points. It involves creating a curve or line that passes through the given points as closely as possible. This helps in understanding trends, making predictions, or analyzing patterns in the data.
Full definition
The dark black, grey and bright red curves are second
order polynomial fitted trends produced by Excel - they are not predictions, but they do indicate the current direction the trends are taking.
He further undermined his credibility through such stunts as higher - order
polynomial fitting on the UAH temperature series.
But one thing we should not do is restrict consideration to the quadratic term of a
quadratic polynomial fit from 1930 onward.
Instead I'm just going to use the
crude polynomial fit I've been using in the charts, which nevertheless manages to capture both the data and the mechanistic projections (IPCC «middle estimates») pretty well.
Is there a reason why a linear trend is shown for the NH sea ice extent, where a second
order polynomial fit trend is shown on the Arctic Sea Ice Escalator graphic?
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order
polynomial fits.
The 3rd order
polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Knowing the underlying physics is necessary for determining the appropriate model to use — Gaussian statistics, Fourier transform, linear or
polynomial fits, and so on.
Click on the image for the super-sized version: The 4th order
polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes...
Figure 1: Average July through September Arctic sea ice extent 1870 - 2008 from the University of Illinois (Walsh & Chapman 2001 updated to 2008) and observational data from NSIDC for 2009 - 2011 (blue), with a fourth order
polynomial fit (black soiid line).
The 3rd order
polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Dissolved GHG flux (Fd) was calculated as: where Csur is the gas concentration in surface water, Ceq is the gas concentration when in equilibrium with the atmosphere at ambient temperature (global atmospheric concentrations were used), and k is the gas exchange velocity calculated as: where Sc is the Schmidt number calculated from empirical third - order
polynomial fit to water temperature and corrected at 20 °C.
It looks to be
a polynomial fit, and least a cubic and possibly a higher order.
Annual average GCR counts per minute (blue - note that numbers decrease going up the left vertical axis, because lower GCRs should mean higher temperatures) from the Neutron Monitor Database vs. annual average global surface temperature (red, right vertical axis) from NOAA NCDC, both with second order
polynomial fits.