Rather, favorable trend uniformity speaks only to speculative merit - the likelihood of
positive average market returns driven by falling risk premiums.
Not exact matches
In fact, over the past 35 years, the
market has experienced an
average drop of 14 % from high to low during each calendar year, but still had a
positive annual
return more than 80 % of the time.
A
positive Market Climate says nothing except that the average return to market risk tends to be favorable while that Climate is in e
Market Climate says nothing except that the
average return to
market risk tends to be favorable while that Climate is in e
market risk tends to be favorable while that Climate is in effect.
The point I think that's important is that, approximately, bull
market returns tend to be two - X the
average because the
average is made up of the
positives and the negatives and the bull
market is mostly an extended period of excessive
positives.
Surz maintains that because the stock
market has generated
positive returns about 70 percent of the time historically, simulations of participants» wealth using traditional TDFs» portfolios forecast good
average long - term results.
Basically, a
Market Climate says «when these conditions were historically true, here is the set of returns that the market had - some are positive, some are negative, but look, the average return / risk profile is different in this Climate than in the other ones.&
Market Climate says «when these conditions were historically true, here is the set of
returns that the
market had - some are positive, some are negative, but look, the average return / risk profile is different in this Climate than in the other ones.&
market had - some are
positive, some are negative, but look, the
average return / risk profile is different in this Climate than in the other ones.»
It is possible to have a
positive return,
averaged across the
market, even in a stationary economy.
During years when
market prices fell, price
returns averaged a negative 15 % while dividends still provided a
positive 3 %
return.
Obviously, it wasn't perfect, but if you were a long - term investor, here was a simple strategy that produced
positive average returns that weren't correlated to the stock
market.
Some active strategies that appear significantly better than passive investing have
positive relative
return not through distinctive stock (or other investment vehicle) picking or timing, but since their active investment strategy effectively increases their
market risk exposure (higher
average beta of their holdings, perhaps via a not even deliberate choice of which
market segments they overweight).
From 1951 to 2003, he found that the
positive momentum group gained an
average of 14.73 % annually versus the
market, which
returned 11.71 % per year.
The real - dividend - per - share growth difference was a whopping 9.3 % lower (i.e., 6.3 % under the
positive /
positive scenario and the negative 3.0 % under the
positive / negative scenario) than its
average in the more usual case of both prior
market return and subsequent dividend growth being
positive.
Fama and French observed in their 1992 paper, The Cross-Section of Expected Stock
Returns, that there is «striking evidence» of a «strong
positive relation between
average return and book - to -
market equity» [«BE» is book equity and «ME» is
market equity, so «BE / ME» is just BM, the inverse of P / B]:
Whether the
market return is
positive or negative, there will be individual stocks that do better than the
average return.