Even if we don't see outsized price increases in commodities, from a total return perspective, commodity returns will benefit from a change to
positive roll yields based on the reshaping and structuring of the fundamental market in commodities.
Not exact matches
Going forward,
roll yields will actually result in
positive returns, whereas they've been a drag on returns in recent years.
Sometimes,
roll yield can be
positive.
The Optimum
Yield ™ version of the index attempts to minimize the negative effects of contango and maximize the
positive effects of backwardation by applying flexible
roll rules to pick a new futures contract when a contract expires.
A
positive roll cost indicates cost while a negative
roll cost indicates
yield.
An overweight to commodities in backwardation (or in less - extreme contango) in order to capture a relatively high and attractive
roll yield, and an overweight to commodities with higher recent performance in order to benefit from short - term persistence in commodity price movements (i.e.,
positive momentum), can have meaningfully
positive impacts on portfolio performance.3, 4 We compare the performance of four portfolios — high versus low
roll yield and high versus low momentum — from January 1999 to June 2016.