If an adaptive system is getting pushed hard enough, its defense systems can switch from negative to
positive runaway feedback.
Not exact matches
This
positive feedback phenomenon, called the
runaway albedo effect, would eventually lead to a single dominating ice cap, like the one observed on Pluto.
Scientists worry that a
runaway «
positive feedback» loop, in which one event reinforces or strengthens the next, is already taking place, with fewer plants leading to less rain, leading to still fewer plants, and so on.
So, what I would propose, since «
runaway» is a useful term, indicating a
positive feedback scenario more succinctly, is to distinguish between «permanent
runaway» and «temporary or limited
runaway» GW (temporary on the geological time scheme of thousands or millions of years).
The Arrhenius rate laws do not show
runaway positive feedback with increases in temperature.
See here for an overview of
positive feedbacks and how this doesn't imply a
runaway scenario.
There is no science behind the claim of future
runaway warming from
positive water vapor
feedback.
Because if it dose we might be stuck down the rabit whole for good because of
runaway global warming caused by more bushfires and more melting of the permafrost releasing greenhouse gases and establishing a
positive feedback loop.
So, what I would propose, since «
runaway» is a useful term, indicating a
positive feedback scenario more succinctly, is to distinguish between «permanent
runaway» and «temporary or limited
runaway» GW (temporary on the geological time scheme of thousands or millions of years).
When their is enough CO2 to start thawing near the equator, a
runaway positive feedback would tend to ensue, not stopping until the climate is much warmer.
We don't know that anthropogenic global warming will be limited before the system goes into
runaway positive feedback driven by melting methane hydrates we can't control.
The problem in the «slow»
feedback analysis is that it seems a never - ending
runaway: there are
positive feedbacks (ice melting, carbon pump saturation); which imply less albedo, more CO2; which imply new
positive feedbacks (more ice melting, more carbon pump saturation)... and so on.
People often conclude that the existence of
positive feedbacks must imply «
runaway» effects i.e. the system spiralling out of control.
You can think of the Earth's climate (unlike Venus») as having an «r «less than one, i.e. no «
runaway» effects, but plenty of
positive feedbacks.
A «
runaway greenhouse effect» occurs when something warms the planet, triggering
positive feedbacks which warm it further; however, even this does not mean the planet continues warming infinitely, forever.
In fact,
positive feedbacks do not necessarily lead to «
runaway warming».
Positive feedback, on the other hand, requires exquisite tuning to avoid
runaway amplification.
If our climate was dominated by
positive feedbacks, it would have saturated to a
runaway greenhouse state long ago.
So your scientific intuition rebels at the thought of
runaway positive feedback (like that which causes the rapid transition from ice age to interglacial which is so well established), but it doesn't rebel at the thought that somehow, every scientist since 1922 has failed to notice an allegedly major flaw in our understanding of the greenhouse effect?
This is the definition of
feedback where if it was
positive, you'd get
runaway warming.
Positive feedback will always cause some kind of
runaway, and is always stopped by some non-linearity (for instance Stefan Boltzmans law decides that the earth will not melt due to
runaway CO2).
any
positive feedback is enough for a
runaway effect, unless there is negative
feedback elsewhere.
There is a class of
positive feedback that is amplification and not
runaway, which is f between 0 and 1.
However, you have avoided my last comment that without a
positive feedback from water vapour there is no chance of
runaway global warming arising from increasing atmospheric CO2 levels.
This led to a nasty scene, when he said I was unable to see what was obvious, ever - accelerating cooling which would lead to a
runaway «Neptune Effect» because of mechanisms of
positive feedback (his best examples were clouds which collect over the winter solstice — the «in - law» effect — persisting through to mid-February — the «Cupid» effect — and combining forces to wreck the climate for the entire first half of the year.)
Of course Ferdinand is right not to project catastrophism onto anthropogenic CO2 levels for as you likely know there is a inverse logarithmic relationship between changes in temperature and CO2 levels such that without the assumed
positive feedback from water vapour there is no chance of
runaway global warming, tipping points or whatever.
As an engineer, I recognized such
positive feedback as the hallmark of a fundamentally unstable system subject to «
runaway», which is precisely what the likes of James Hansen were postulating.
One that this
positive feedback was predicted to be «
runaway» in your OP.
Your thesis appears to be that a net
positive sea ice
feedback should result in
runaway loss of ice, a fundamental misunderstanding of the use of
feedbacks in climate science.
Since it has been substantially warmer than today many times in the past, without any evidence of
runaway warming, the hypothesis of
runaway warming due to
positive feedbacks began to look distinctly unpromising.
They don't explain at all why the data shows a
feedback effect, or what the mechanism is that stops the
positive feedback from being a
runaway process (a frequent question by skeptics).
I think you have it basically right, but at the beginning of your post you came up with and discarded the reason it is not a
runaway effect: I am assuming of course that
positive feedback is linear Wrong assumption!
The cumulative CO2 growth causes global warming that accelerates (they hypothesize) to a condition of «
runaway» temperature increases via
positive feedbacks, leading to catastrophic «tipping point» climate change.
Per the IPCC's global warming hypothesis, at the very top of the troposphere, above the equator region, is the location (12 km, 200hPa @ 20 ° N - 20 ° S) that triggers a
positive climate
feedback, which produces the mythical
runaway, tipping point of accelerated, dangerous global warming, which of course is unequivocal and irrefutable, except when it isn't.
The problem arises because climate alarmist prefer to assume there are only
positive feedback mechanisms in play with increasing CO2 emissions such that we will have
runaway temperatures and catastrophic climate outcomes.
Some skeptics ask, «If global warming has a
positive feedback effect, then why don't we have
runaway warming?
Positive feedback won't lead to
runaway warming; diminishing returns on
feedback cycles limit the amplification.
Actually I think the claim is that CO2 warming (but mysteriously not «natural» warming) triggers other
positive feedbacks causing a
runaway effect (I won't call it «greenhouse» because that's a misnomer).
Positive feedback means
runaway warming «One of the oft - cited predictions of potential warming is that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from pre-industrial levels — from 280 to 560 parts per million — would alone cause average global temperature to increase by about 1.2 °C.
If the
feedbacks from higher carbon dioxide levels are strongly
positive, then in past geological eras when CO2 levels were much higher than today there should have occurred the «
runaway climate» that James Hansen fantasizes about.
Long - term stable systems do not demonstrate this kind of radically
positive feedback - driven
runaway behavior (much longer post on climate and
positive feedbacks here).
Then even mineral water will cause a
runaway apocalypse through
positive feedback loops.
(a) the environment is a delicately balanced system that can be pushed, by the least little perturbation, into a
runaway positive feedback loop, turning the Earth into another Venus.
The principal basis of climate change alarmism has always been that
positive feedback mechanisms will produce «
runaway climate change».
This
runaway effect that manmade climate change believers talk about comes from the hypothesis that climate change
feedback mechanisms are
positive and the small warming we have experienced will lead to drastic increases in global temperature.
Publications by James E. Hansen pubs.giss.nasa.gov, his latest book is: Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity. Amazon.com
Runaway climate change
Runaway climate change describes a scenario in which the climate system passes a threshold or tipping point, after which internal
positive feedback effects cause the climate to continue changing, even...
point 4: There is not the slightest reason why a moderate
positive feedback (
feedback factor smaller than 1) would lead to instability (a
runaway reaction).
With Hansen talking about «tipping points» in the climatic energy - budget, high priests of AGW raising the specter of «
runaway greenhouse,» and modelers resorting to a fictitious
positive water - vapor
feedback in their calculations, energetics (power fluxes) in the geosystem is not only relevant, but the central issue.
Eventually, we're going to have to do what works scientifically, that keeps methane out of the atmosphere, and takes CO2 back out of it — if it is not already too late to stop
positive feedback generated low level
runaway global heating.
The global warming catastrophe premise requires that trace Co2 gases produce a
positive feedback loop that creates the rapid and
runaway tipping point of accelerating temperature increase.