Besides the ones mentioned by pjm in comment 41, one needs to look at
the possible effects of clouds.
Not exact matches
Possible reasons include increased oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction
of heat into the ocean, higher than normal levels
of stratospheric aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled
cloud feedback
effects.
You also state: «It is
possible that GCRs do have an
effect on climate through the modulation
of clouds, but I don't think it is very strong.»
It's
possible that CO2 contributes about a.6 C increase in temperature and that the
effects of clouds acts as a negative feedback to moderate further increases.
# 27 CCPO It's
possible that CO2 contributes about a.6 C increase in temperature and that the
effects of clouds acts as a negative feedback to moderate further increases.
So, we have a solid understanding
of the
effect of the GH gases, and
clouds need to be doing some surprising flip - flops to be the only
possible alternative explanation.
Instead, the aim
of our Science paper was to illustrate as clearly and as simply as
possible the basic operating principles
of the terrestrial greenhouse
effect in terms
of the sustaining radiative forcing that is provided by the non-condensing greenhouse gases, which is further augmented by the feedback response
of water vapor and
clouds.
Because the earth has
clouds with behaviors, and atmos moisture is not uniform or constant, and surface albedo changes constantly, it is
possible to have either or amplification or damping
of the theoretical CO2
effect (or both via different processes).
A few years ago, Pierce and Adams modeled the potential
cloud forming
effect of cosmic rays and found it wanting by more than an order
of magnitude, even when the most favourable assumptions
possible were made.
Increasing the brightness
of marine stratocumulus
clouds, as proposed by John Latham, would affect about 17 %
of the earth's surface, and the Lenton - Vaughan analysis suggests that the whitening
effect would have to be considerably more marked than previous work has assumed; but if that brightening could be achieved then a negative forcing that averages more than 3W / m ² should be
possible.
This suggests that the aerosol indirect
effect and in particular the increase
of cloud cover can serve as a
possible explanation to the observed changes in surface illumination.
With that as the median
of a reasonable prior, the empirical evidence comes down on the side
of a value less than 2; this is especially true if the prior includes negative values for ECS, which is
possible on some
of the much debated
effects of clouds.
If the
effects of CO2 on water vapor and
clouds, or the influence
of the sun, have been mis - estimated, then reversal
of heating is
possible.
We hear about «run - away» greenhouse
effect on Venus, without any explanation
of how this is
possible with 100 %
cloud cover if albedo and aerosols works as we think they do.
Several
possible anthropogenic mechanisms are discussed; we speculate that aerosol -
cloud interactions are the most likely cause
of this weekend
effect, but we do not rule out others.
The suite
of possible impacts
of aerosols through the modification
of cloud properties is called «indirect
effects».
A few groups pursued the study
of possible mechanisms, for example elaborating theories
of how changes in the atmosphere's electric circuit, which varies with the flux
of cosmic rays, affected precipitation in the Arctic, Ram et al. (2009), or devising experiments that they hoped would show a direct and strong
effect of cosmic rays on
clouds, e.g., Svensmark et al. (2007)(which brought a strong press reaction but proved little).
Although the most advanced theoretical climate models still leave uncertainty, particularly about the sign and magnitudes
of the
effects, on GHG feedbacks,
of some low - and high -
clouds, a consensus began to develop that threats
of resulting increases in global temperature — and the very large risks associated with their
possible consequences — deserved substantial increase in attention.