Executive Summary The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project was created to make the best
possible estimate of global temperature change using as complete a record of measurements as possible and by applying novel methods for the estimation and elimination of systematic biases.
Not exact matches
The CDR potential and
possible environmental side effects are
estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice ‐ free coastal waters (about 8.6 %
of the
global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function
of grain size, ambient seawater
temperature, and pH. Our results indicate that for a large ‐ enough olivine deployment
of small ‐ enough grain sizes (10 µm), atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100.
Then, it might be
possible to make some meaningful
estimates of long - term
global temperature trends from the weather records.
Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment
of temperature variations and trends from
global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «
Estimating changes in
global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «
Possible artifacts
of data biases in the recent
global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact
of satellite - based observations in sea surface
temperature trends»
But linear regression is known to give the best
possible unbiased
estimate of its parameters for any linear function
of the data — if a regression can not give a reliable enough
estimate of the
global average
temperature, it seems inevitable that the current method must be worse.
What I object to strongly, is people trying to claim that the
estimates make it
possible to claim that adding CO2 to the atmosphere causes
global temperatures to rise with some sort
of probability.
Key vulnerabilities are linked to specific levels
of global mean
temperature increase (above 1990 - 2000 levels; see Box 19.2) using available
estimates from the literature wherever
possible.
Lower case a-h refer to how the literature was addressed in terms
of up / downscaling (a — clearly defined
global impact for a specific ΔT against a specific baseline, upscaling not necessary; b — clearly defined regional impact at a specific regional ΔT where no GCM used; c — clearly defined regional impact as a result
of specific GCM scenarios but study only used the regional ΔT; d — as c but impacts also the result
of regional precipitation changes; e — as b but impacts also the result
of regional precipitation change; f — regional
temperature change is off - scale for upscaling with available GCM patterns to 2100, in which case upscaling is, where
possible, approximated by using Figures 10.5 and 10.8 from Meehl et al., 2007; g — studies which
estimate the range
of possible outcomes in a given location or region considering a multi-model ensemble linked to a
global temperature change.
Magnitudes
of impact can now be
estimated more systematically for a range
of possible increases in
global average
temperature.