We have 1) ENSO masking (
possibly related to) 2) heat accumulation in intermediate
ocean depths 3) weak solar forcing and 4) volcanoes.
Making the (
possibly unjustified) assumption that heat flow follows water flow, you'd expect to see anomalous global heat input originally from surface water emerging from the
depths most strongly in the Indian
Ocean.
Do we really have the understanding and sensitivity in all of our measuring to capture the energy budget as it changes form, phase, and location, or are there
possibly slow changes in thermocline
depths, hydrologic cycle speeds, atmospheric elevations, large
ocean currents etc, that can receive energy quickly but manifest it as temperature slowly or even imperceptibly in regard to our ability to capture these changes?