Sentences with phrase «post on climate modeling»

For a good take on that, see Gavin's earlier post on climate modeling.

Not exact matches

Mike Haseler (Scottish Sceptic), 2: Read the next post, on the AMOC and the specified CM2.6 coupled climate model, please.

Meanwhile, if you can manage a post on the topic of «structural instabilities» in theoretical models and in the real climate system, that would be very much appreciated.

And of course there's still substantial uncertainty in climate models at the regional scale in war - prone places (again, a prime example is the set of countries along the southern fringe of the Sahara Desert, where models still clash on which areas will grow drier or wetter; see my Somalia posts.)

As noted in that post, RealClimate defines the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation («AMO») as, «A multidecadal (50 - 80 year timescale) pattern of North Atlantic ocean - atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulations.

In 1971, the Washington Post reported that research based on climate modeling developed by NASA scientist James Hansen predicted that glaciers would cover much of the globe within 50 years — by 2021 — because of mankind's fossil - fuel dust blotting out the sun.

Posted in Development and Climate Change, Global Warming, Green House Gas Emissions, Information and Communication, International Agencies, Lessons, News, Publication, Research, Resilience, Vulnerability Comments Off on Warmer Earth Will Be Drier Model Predicts

Posted in Adaptation, Advocacy, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Ecosystem Functions, Environment, Forest, Governance, Information and Communication, International Agencies, Land, Learning, News, Poverty, Resilience, Vulnerability, Water Comments Off on New Business Model Offers Fresh Approach for Valuing Nature

by Judith Curry This post discusses Workshop presentations on the utility of climate models for regional adaptation decisions.

This is what i referred to as «pandemonium» in my earlier post on what we can learn from climate models:

e.g. see Roger Pielke's post: Very Important New Paper «A Comparison Of Local And Aggregated Climate Model Outputs With Observed Data» By Anagnostopoulos Et Al 2010 commenting on:

The climate scientists that worry about these issues don't post here (much - Jeff made a single post) so you aren't really going to see a meaningful discussion on the role of chaos or stochastic processes on climates, how that is handled in model building, and what that means in terms of model verification.

Originally posted on Open Mind: A new paper by Hansen et al., Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous is currently under review...

Instead, we got a post by Tomas, who based on the comments by Jeff and the references in jstults» blog, seems rather ignorant on the research and literature in the field saying that «Hey, climate is chaotic and climate scientists are doing it wrong», and insinuating therefore that all current models aren't useful.

Posted in Research Blogging, tagged canada, climate change, climate models, cmip5, education, emic, global warming, gulf stream, IPCC, meridional overturning circulation, north atlantic, oceanography, programming, science, the day after tomorrow, UVic, younger dryas on October 24, 2012 16 Comments»

Comments On Judy Curry's Post «The Culture Of Building Confidence In Climate Models» [http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2010/10/14/comments-on-judy-currys-post-the-culture-of-building-confidence-in-climate-models/]

Steve Easterbrook has a superb post on what a V&V process might look like for climate models, and includes reference to an excellent paper by Pope and Davies.

JC note: Pursuant to Nic's post on «The IPCC's alteration of Forster & Gregory's model - independent climate sensitivity results,» he has sent a letter to Gabi Hegerl, who was coordinating lead author on chapter 9 of the IPCC AR4.

Posted in Research Blogging, tagged canada, climate change, climate models, emic, GCM, global warming, programming, UVic on May 3, 2012 8 Comments»

Judith, Thanks for the kind words about my post on V&V of climate models.

Posted in Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Environment, Global Warming, Green House Gas Emissions, Information and Communication, International Agencies, Learning, Lessons, News, Research, Technologies, Vulnerability, Weather Comments Off on Climate Model Forecast Is Revised

How exactly are you proving your point when you admit (emphasis mine)... «yes, the temperature moved FIRST» and you make hidden conciliatory statements like... «for the MAJORITY of that time» and then you freely admit... «CO2 did not trigger the warmings» and then you rely on the lamest of hollow arguments... «according to climate THEORY and model EXPERIMENTS» and then you stumble back to close with complete opinion and conjecture... «we may well» and «The likely candidates» Anyone with a brain will read your post and laugh - it's pathetic and you've actually done nothing but strengthen the skeptics argument.

In terms of your request for something substantial, I responded to your original claim that «the theory relies on computer models» with a link to a RealClimate post that shows this claim is not correct — rather than computer models, the foundations of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change are built upon our understanding of how the atmosphere works and how we are changing it by emitting greenhouse gases.

As far as there being a «guarantee», all I can say is that I personally have no idea on how to create a consistent model dominated by internal variability — ie., a model with low climate sensitivity, a trend pattern similar to observations, and a positive heat uptake — as I tried to outline in this post.

The take - home message — that climate models were on the verge of failure (basically the opposite of the Post headline)-- is self - evident in Figure 1, adapted from our presentation.

Additional stuck - on - stupid - journalism and climate - model postings.

Posted in Adaptation, Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Disasters and Climate Change, Ecosystem Functions, Government Policies, Information and Communication, News, Opinion, Research, Vulnerability Comments Off on India Must Develop Own Climate Model: US Expert

Graham Readfearn comments on the piece in an article in The Guardian, noting that Evans's theory had arose from a series of over 11 blog posts he had on his wife's blog (JoNova) where Evans claims to have found fundamental problems with climate models.

Posted in Research Blogging, tagged carbon cycle, climate change, climate models, education, geoengineering, global warming, ocean acidification, programming, science, sea ice on September 16, 2012 14 Comments»

Posted in News and Reports, tagged arctic, climate change, climate models, education, environment, global warming, nsidc, science, sea ice on August 15, 2012 10 Comments»

Originally posted on... and Then There's Physics: Okay, I finally succumbed and actually waded through some of the new paper by Monckton, Soon, Legates & Briggs called Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model.

Posted in Advocacy, Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Energy, Environment, Green House Gas Emissions, Information and Communication, IPCC, Lessons, Opinion, Pollution, Publication, Research Comments Off on IPCC Models Underestimate Role Of CO2 In Warming

Australian climate scientist, and modeller, Dr David Evans publishes the first post of several, on his new paper which falsifies the current model all climate science is based on:

Posted in Advocacy, CLIMATE SCIENCE, Ecosystem Functions, Environment, Government Policies, Research, Technologies Comments Off on Software Model To Assess ClimateCLIMATE SCIENCE, Ecosystem Functions, Environment, Government Policies, Research, Technologies Comments Off on Software Model To Assess ClimateClimate Change

But all of the modelling by Treasury and the Department of Climate Change (now the Department of Environment) was posted on the Authority's website at the time of the release of its report.

NOTE: I found the above Lindzen paper through a link in a current post at WUWT «Diminishing returns on climate models» by Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. [http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/06/diminishing-returns-on-climate-models/]

Michael and Peter may be interested in the following comment on climate models recently posted by the Realclimate people (Modeller vs. modeller, 20 October, 2005):

«Errors in external forcing data (Santer et al's preferred explanation) Internal variability (which has been supported by numerous previous studies, including posts at CE) Values of CO2 climate sensitivity that are too high (interesting new post on this over at ClimateAudit) Missing physical processes in the climate models (e.g. solar indirect effects).»

Gary Strand, a software engineer at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), admitted climate model software «doesn't meet the best standards available» in a comment he posted on the website Climateclimate model software «doesn't meet the best standards available» in a comment he posted on the website ClimateClimate Audit.

While climate contrarians like Richard Lindzen tend to treat the uncertainties associated with clouds and aerosols incorrectly, as we noted in that post, they are correct that these uncertainties preclude a precise estimate of climate sensitivity based solely on recent temperature changes and model simulations of those changes.

«The recent dramatic cooling of the average heat content of the upper oceans, and thus a significant negative radiative imbalance of the climate system for at least a two year period, that was mentioned in the Climate Science weblog posting of July 27, 2006, should be a wake - up call to the climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate climate system for at least a two year period, that was mentioned in the Climate Science weblog posting of July 27, 2006, should be a wake - up call to the climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate Climate Science weblog posting of July 27, 2006, should be a wake - up call to the climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate climate community that the focus on predictive modeling as the framework to communicate to policymakers on climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate climate policy has serious issues as to its ability to accurately predict the behavior of the climate climate system.

Indeed, this dynamics suggests a major multiple harmonic influence component on the climate with a likely astronomical origin (sun + moon + planets) although not yet fully understood in its physical mechanisms, that, as shown in the above figures, can apparently explain also the post 2000 climate quite satisfactorily (even by using my model calibrated from 1850 to 1950, that is more than 50 years before the observed temperature hiatus period since 2000!).

In the most lucid comment ever posted (arguably) on Climate Etc, Steven Mosher concisely dissects the scientific anatomy of climate moClimate Etc, Steven Mosher concisely dissects the scientific anatomy of climate moclimate modeling.

Posted in Advocacy, Carbon, Development and Climate Change, Ecosystem Functions, Government Policies, Information and Communication, International Agencies, IPCC, Research, Resilience Comments Off on Climate Models: Epic Failure or Spot on Consistent with Observed Warming?

As Mike noted, we should stay focused on the suite of (very interesting and) important scientific questions raised by this post — especially those related to the idea of spatial / temporal patterns of climate data in relation to concepts and models of their likely physical causes.

Actually you may notice that in the first introducing post, it is carefully omitted to say that climate scientists think the current variation is highly unusual: the «unusual variation» all relies on models, and extrapolation, not on current measurements.

I posted the comment on your blog because I thought you would be interested in the math of their stochastic model of climate fluctations in Chapter 7 and give an assesment of the their methodolgy.

many thanks for the link to your «old post»... IMHO, it should be on the required reading list for all of us participating in discussions of climate models

RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen methane.A huge increase in the release of methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what point in the rise of co2 concentrations in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of stored fossil fuels which have been stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a huge increase in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the huge, albeit temporary, increase in methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick, huge, changes occured in the Earth's climate in the past.See other relevent posts in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not change slowly, but undergoes huge, quick, changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick change.Why should the danger from huge potential methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?

In a recent op - ed in the Washington Post, James Hansen at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York blamed climate change for excessive drought, based on six decades of measurements, not computer models: «Our analysis shows that it is no longer enough to say that global warming will increase the likelihood of extreme weather and to repeat the caveat that no individual weather event can be directly linked to climate change.