(ppm) Year of Peak Emissions Percent Change in global emissions Global average temperature increase above
pre-industrial at equilibrium, using «best estimate» climate sensitivity CO 2 concentration at stabilization (2010 = 388 ppm) CO 2 - eq.
Not exact matches
Mark — What are your thoughts about the analysis by Ramanathan and Feng (PNAS, Sept 17,2008: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0803838105), in which they calculate the committed warming of cumulative emissions since the
pre-industrial era as in the region of 2.4 °C (with a confidence interval of 1.4 °C to 4.3 °C), based on calculating the
equilibrium temperature if GHG concentrations are held
at 2005 levels into the future.
ECS is the increase in the global annual mean surface temperature caused by an instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 relative to the
pre-industrial level after the model relaxes to radiative
equilibrium, while the TCR is the temperature increase averaged over 20 years centered on the time of doubling
at a 1 % per year compounded increase.
Taken together, the average of the warmest times during the middle Pliocene presents a view of the
equilibrium state of a globally warmer world, in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations (estimated to be between 360 to 400 ppm) were likely higher than
pre-industrial values (Raymo and Rau, 1992; Raymo et al., 1996), and in which geologic evidence and isotopes agree that sea level was
at least 15 to 25 m above modern levels (Dowsett and Cronin, 1990; Shackleton et al., 1995), with correspondingly reduced ice sheets and lower continental aridity (Guo et al., 2004).
... The
equilibrium global average warming expected if carbon dioxide concentrations were to be sustained
at 550 ppm is likely to be in the range 2 - 4.5 °C above
pre-industrial values, with a best estimate of about 3 °C.»
Which implies that the CO2 cycle was a simple dynamic
equilibrium process in
pre-industrial times... No problem
at all for science.