The probability that a negative
precipitation anomaly co-occurs with a positive temperature anomaly has increased recently, with warm — dry years occurring more than twice as often in the past two decades (91 %) as in the preceding century (42 %)(Fig. 1B).
In addition, the number of multiyear periods in which a — 0.5 SD
precipitation anomaly co-occurs with a 0.5 SD temperature anomaly more than doubles between the Historical and RCP8.5 experiments (Fig. 4A).
Not exact matches
Rather, the observed doubling of the occurrence of 1 - SD drought years has coincided with a doubling of the frequency with which a negative
precipitation year produces a 1 - SD drought, with 55 % of negative
precipitation years in 1995 — 2014
co-occurring with a — 1.0 SD PMDI
anomaly, compared with 27 % in 1896 — 1994 (Fig. 1 A and B).
The fact that the occurrence of warm and moderately dry years approaches that of moderately dry years in the last decades of the Historical experiment (Fig. 3 B and C) and that 91 % of negative
precipitation years in 1995 — 2014
co-occurred with warm
anomalies (Fig. 1B) suggests possible emergence of a regime in which nearly all dry years
co-occur with warm conditions.
Similarly, negative
precipitation anomalies are much more likely to produce 1 - SD drought if they
co-occur with a positive temperature
anomaly.