Large differences in regional
precipitation change between a first and second 2K of global warming.
The differences in
precipitation changes between the high - end and non-high-end models in DJF and JJA were also investigated (data not shown).
Not exact matches
Although the study does not directly identify a link
between this type of variation and current climate
change vulnerability, these
precipitation - linked variables could be a source of vulnerability in the future, Bay and her colleagues noted.
The results show that the correlation
between climate
change — i.e. the variation in temperature and
precipitation between glacials and interglacials — and the loss of megafauna is weak, and can only be seen in one sub-region, namely Eurasia (Europe and Asia).
At the top the trend in annual measured
precipitation between 1951 and 2010 is shown from the last scientific report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).
The team of researchers analyzed deposits of wind - blown dust called red clay that accumulated
between six million and two and a half million years ago in north central China, adjacent to the Tibetan plateau, and used them to reconstruct
changing monsoon
precipitation and temperature.
Evidence from glacial advance / retreat (e.g. the evidence from tropical Andean glaciers you cite above) is often difficult to interpret, because glacial mass balance represents in general a subtle competition
between the influences of ablation (determined by
changes in temperature thresholds reached) and accumulation (determined by
changes in humidity and
precipitation).
Discussion of the Results: The results show that there is good connection
between ENSO events and the
changes in the background temperature and the
precipitation in Nigeria.
Despite no historical
changes in average annual
precipitation between 1950 and 2015, there have been
changes in average seasonal
precipitation over the same period.
A model by the Purdue Climate
Change Research Center in West Lafayette forecasts, by 2050, the full growing seasons will expand by one month; there will be 33 to 45 more days with temperatures above 90 degrees; an increase in
precipitation between 14 percent and 22 percent; and 24 days to 36 days less snow cover.
Changes in aridity — the ratio
between evaporation and
precipitation — are expected in many regions as a result of climate
change.
Recognizing that the impacts of
changes in the frequency and intensity of these storms can easily exceed the impacts of
changes in average temperature or
precipitation, climate scientists are actively researching the connections
between climate
change and severe storms.
This can be affected by warming temperatures, but also by
changes in snowfall, increases in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat
between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and
precipitation.18
c, Measurements of July to September air temperature and annual
precipitation changes at each site
between 2003 and 2002.
Rather, winter
precipitation has fluctuated
between droughts and pluvials in these watersheds in the last century with no evidence of directional
change, a pattern that has reoccurred in the southwestern United States for the last 1000 years [50].
The relationship
between SSTs and spatial gradients in
changes in (extreme)
precipitation is an important finding for analysing necessary measures to anticipate future
changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the country.
Oerlemans and Fortuin (1992) derived an empirical relationship
between the mass balance sensitivity of a glacier to temperature
change and the local average
precipitation, which is the principal factor determining its mass turnover rate.
Given the conservative nature of the shape parameter, it is possible to illustrate the relationships
between changes in the mean total
precipitation, the probability of
precipitation (which is proportional to the number of days with
precipitation), and
changes in heavy
precipitation (Figure 2.34).
For a example, phase
change which in the atmosphere mainly concerns evaporation of water at the surface (or boundary
between surface and the fluid atmosphere) and condensation in the various layers of the atmosphere leading to cloud formation and
precipitation.
Levels in some lakes represent a
changing balance
between inputs and outputs and, under one transient scenario, levels in Lake Victoria would initially fall as increases in evaporation offset
changes in
precipitation, but subsequently rise as the effects of increased
precipitation overtake the effects of higher evaporation (Tate et al., 2004).
Between 1958 and 2007, New England saw a 67 percent increase in heavy
precipitation events and the Midwest experienced a 31 percent increase, according to the 2009 federal report «Global Climate
Change Impacts in the United States.»
A sentence in Chapter 13 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability states: «Up to 40 percent of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in
precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation.»
The multiple physical connections
between lightning, convection,
precipitation, and rapid storm intensity
changes make lightning a rich source of information on how these storms evolve.
It is important to recognize that ΔMLT is a proxy for
changing magnitudes of temperature,
precipitation, humidity, and CO2, and that both climate and ecosystem inertia also play roles in the relationships
between climate forcing and vegetation responses.
The team used
changes in dust levels and stable water isotopes in the annual ice layers of the two - mile - long Greenland ice core, which was hauled from the massive ice sheet
between 1998 to 2004, to chart past temperature and
precipitation swings.
That is particularly the case in California, where decadal
precipitation variance is typically equivalent to 20 — 50 % of mean annual averages, mostly because of
changes in
precipitation received
between November and March [16 — 17].
Climate
change by 2060 was computed as the difference (air temperature) or ratio (
precipitation and solar radiation) of monthly mean climate
between the GCM (unforced) control and 2xCO2 simulations at GCM grid boxes coinciding with the crop modelling sites (Figure 13.1 b).
The basin could experience more
precipitation with climate
change, or bigger swings
between wet and dry years or possibly even longer, more severe «megadroughts.»
«Climate
change could influence monsoon dynamics and cause lower summer
precipitation, a delay to the start of the monsoon season and longer breaks
between the rainy periods.»
But the point is that, such a cascade doesn't want us to understand simply the relationship
between increased
precipitation and mosquitoes, but
between climate
change and death.
Modest and slowly evolving
changes in the width of the Hadley Cell could force rapid
changes in
precipitation in transition regions that lie
between the subtropical deserts and tropical rainforests (e.g., the Sahel).
Process - based studies have focused on understanding the role of the land surface on climate, with research looking into the regional impact of historical or hypothetical (future scenario) land - use
change on climate, as well as understanding diurnal - scale relationships
between surface fluxes of heat and moisture and subsequent atmospheric processes such as convection and the generation of
precipitation.
This will provide an additional boost to temperature rises (and SLR and
changes in
precipitation patters) the next time the stars are lined up as they were in the period
between 1976 and 1998.
Perry, C.A., 1992, A Correlation
between precipitation in the Western United States and solar - irradiance variations, in Proceedings of the American Water Resources Association Conference Managing Water Resources During Climate
Change, Reno, Nevada, November 1 - 6, p. 721 - 729.
They confirm that the incidence of illnesses is strongly associated with sharp
changes in temperature and
precipitation between seasons.
Spaceindustrynews: Mid-elevation forests — those
between approximately 6,500 to 8,000 feet (1,981 to 2,438 meters) in elevation — are the most sensitive to rising temperatures and
changes in
precipitation and snowmelt associated with climate
change, finds a new University of Colorado Boulder - led study co-funded by NASA.
This isn't just an educated guess — past societies have collapsed because of
changes in temperature and
precipitation... Brian Fagan documents the demise of the Pueblo Indian civilization at Chaco Canyon (in what's now New Mexico) during the Medieval Warm Period (roughly
between 800 and 1300 A.D.).
By scaling the
precipitation changes, the maps shown in figure 3 will illustrate any differences
between the
precipitation responses of the high - end and non-high-end models.
For example, analyses of glacier mass balances, volume
changes and length variations along with temperature records in the western European Alps (Vincent et al., 2005) indicate that
between 1760 and 1830, glacier advance was driven by
precipitation that was 25 % above the 20th century average, while there was little difference in average temperatures.
Outside these areas, the sign and magnitude of projected
changes varies
between models, leading to substantial uncertainty in
precipitation projections.
It seems clear to me that the sentence is about responses to a shift from one climate regime, the recent past and present day, to another, with less
precipitation, in the future (it is the IPCC climate
change impacts report after all, and they do say `... not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation»).
«Up to 40 % of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in
precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation (Rowell and Moore, 2000).»
The contested IPCC statement reads: «Up to 40 % of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in
precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could
change very rapidly to another steady state, not necessarily producing gradual
changes between the current and the future situation (Rowell and Moore, 2000).»
There are a couple of lines in IPCC Working Group I («New coupled climate - carbon models (Betts et al., 2004; Huntingford et al., 2004) demonstrate the possibility of large feedbacks
between future climate
change and vegetation
change, discussed further in Section 7.3.5 (i.e., a die back of Amazon vegetation and reductions in Amazon
precipitation).»).
PRUDENCE RCM outputs showed non-linear relationships
between mean maximum temperature and indices of drought and heatwave (Good et al., 2006), while
changes in maximum 1 - day and 5 - day
precipitation amounts were systematically enhanced relative to
changes in seasonal mean
precipitation across many regions of Europe (Beniston et al., 2007).
10 - 14 June 2013: CFMIP / EUCLIPSE Meeting on Cloud Processes and Climate Feedback, Hamburg, GERMANY Focus: Clouds and
precipitation in a
changing climate; Coupling
between cloud processes and the atmospheric circulation; Ability of models to simulate cloud processes, and the impact of errors on model predictive capabilities