Where precipitation decreases were projected, the results were more complex due largely to interactions between plant biomass, runoff, and erosion, and either increases or decreases in overall erosion could occur.
The yellow areas in figure 4 indicate those regions where
precipitation decreases by 10 per cent or more, at least 66 per cent of the models agree on the sign of the change and all models project a temperature rise of 6 °C or more.
Based on the PDSI data, very dry areas (defined as land areas with a PDSI of less than — 3.0) have more than doubled in extent since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO -
induced precipitation decrease over land and subsequent increases primarily due to surface warming.
Increases in heavy precipitation have also been documented even when mean
total precipitation decreases (for example, see Northern Japan in Figure 2.35, or Manton et al., 2001).
The long - term mean
annual precipitation decreased from 816 mm year − 1 at the moist to 544 mm year − 1 at the driest site, and the mean annual temperature increased along this gradient from 8.5 to 9.1 °C (Table 1).
Under the high - end models, Northern Africa is projected to experience high (greater than 6 °C) temperature increases and
large precipitation decreases in both DJF and JJA, suggesting that this region is most at risk from high - end climate change.
Precipitation decreases occur greater than 50 % of the time south of the equator in both figures, but decreases in mid-latitudes result primarily from the UV changes (top figure).
Given the patterns of mean total precipitation changes (Section 2.5.2) during the 20th century, it could be anticipated that, in general, for those areas with increased mean total precipitation, the percentage increase in heavy precipitation rates should be significantly larger, and vice versa for
total precipitation decreases.
The total area (land and ocean)
where precipitation decreases is also larger in the high - end models than in the non-high-end models, by 14 per cent in DJF and 7 per cent in JJA.
States that
this precipitation decrease has intensified since 1979 and such intensification could have enhanced spring drought occurrences in the Central U.S., in which conditions quickly evolve from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry
Several studies focused on the Colorado River basin showed that annual runoff reductions in a warmer western U.S. climate occur through a combination of evapotranspiration increases and
precipitation decreases, with the overall reduction in river flow exacerbated by human demands on the water supply.
During JJA, the area of Europe experiencing
a precipitation decrease has extended northwards to cover most of the continent, except Scandinavia.
The patterns in each season are very similar between the high - end and non-high-end models, but
the precipitation decreases are larger in magnitude in some regions in the high - end models than in the non-high-end models.
They found that, in the model simulations, temperatures increased in all regions during the twenty - first century, and
precipitation decreased the most in Central America, southern South America, the Mediterranean and northern Africa, Central Asia, southern Africa and Australia.
Large temperature increases and
precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.