Extreme
Precipitation Events On The Rise.
Not exact matches
Following three consecutive years of rainy weather during Mass Audubon's annual Bird - a-thon, this year's
event on May 15 - 16 was
precipitation free and generally sunny and pleasant.
According to the Climate Science Special Report released
on Nov. 2, heavy
precipitation events are becoming more frequent and intense in most regions of the world.
The study establishes a method for estimating UHI intensities using PRISM — Parameter - elevation Relationships
on Independent Slopes Model — climate data, an analytical model that creates gridded estimates by incorporating climatic variables (temperature and
precipitation), expert knowledge of climatic
events (rain shadows, temperature inversions and coastal regimes) and digital elevation.
To identify extreme weather
events, the researchers relied
on county and calendar day specific thresholds for
precipitation and maximum temperature (90th and 95th percentile, respectively) that were calculated based
on 30 years of baseline data (1960 - 1989).
«What they've done is identify the chain of
events from seeding to
precipitation on the ground, which has been sorely needed for the last 80 years,» says William Cotton, a former professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins who was not involved with the research.
Based
on over a decade of asthma hospitalization data (115,923 cases from 2000 - 2012), researchers observed higher risk of asthma hospitalization after extreme heat or extreme
precipitation events.
While the majority of climate change scientists focus
on the «direct» threats of changing temperatures and
precipitation after 2031, far fewer researchers are studying how short - term human adaptation responses to seasonal changes and extreme weather
events may threaten the survival of wildlife and ecosystems much sooner.
Extreme weather
events such as excessive
precipitation and heat waves are
on the rise, the report finds.
Climate scientists know that the intensity of extreme
precipitation events is
on the rise because there's more water vapor in the atmosphere caused by higher global and sea temperatures.
An increased risk of intense, short - duration rainfall
events in mid-latitude regions has been predicted consistently for well over a decade as part of the pattern of human influence
on precipitation.
The study concludes that the growth of the Mauna Kea glacier caused by the AMOC current changes was a result of both colder conditions and a huge increase of
precipitation on Mauna Kea — triple that of the present — that scientists believe may have been caused by more frequent cyclonic storm
events hitting the Hawaiian Islands from the north.
Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the future, with mixed changes in
precipitation, more extreme
events, and mixed certainty
on upcoming drought.
The Extremes Grand Challenge is organised around four over arching themes (Document, Understand, Simulate, Attribute) with a main focus
on four core
events (Heavy
Precipitation, Heatwave, Drought, Storm).
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to have an impact
on these types of
events: warm temperature extremes and heavy
precipitation extremes have -LSB-...]
His work mainly focuses
on remote sensing of
precipitation, hydrologic applications, and the analysis of extreme weather and climatic
events using observation and models.
An increase of intense
precipitation events has been found
on much of the world's land area [127]--[129].
Good radio science
on this, from NPR's Richard Harris: http://www.npr.org/2011/02/16/133806402/researchers-link-extreme-rains-to-global-warming goes into various questions, beyond these specific studies; he emphasizes these studies are about
precipitation events.
Here is an interesting report
on the links between tropical temperatures and increased likelihood of extreme
precipitation events:
This influence of climate change
on some extremes, including especially heat waves and heavy
precipitation and some kinds of storm and flood
events must no longer be waved away, swept under the rug, or otherwise ignored.
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences
on large scale increase in
precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy
precipitation could be due to an unusual
event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
3:28 p.m. Updated I contacted Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was just interviewed by Joe Romm
on extreme
precipitation and warming, to see if he thinks it's appropriate to call such storms «global warming type»
events.
«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence
on extreme
precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme
precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence
on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme
precipitation events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean
precipitation..
A La Niña
event, based
on the temperature values
on a graph, appears to be an El Niño of the opposite sign, and for some regional responses in temperature and
precipitation that is true.
the attribution of a specific heavy
precipitation event to human - caused GHG's is not an extra development in science that is needed to add to the burden of proof regarding the human influence
on climate already provided by the current scientific evidence.»
Peer - reviewed literature about the effects of climate change are in broad agreement that air and surface water temperatures are rising and will continue to do so, that ice cover is declining steadily, and that
precipitation and extreme
events are
on the rise.
Evidence that extreme
precipitation is increasing is based primarily
on analysis1, 2,3 of hourly and daily
precipitation observations from the U.S. Cooperative Observer Network, and is supported by observed increases in atmospheric water vapor.4 Recent publications have projected an increase in extreme
precipitation events, 1,5 with some areas getting larger increases6 and some getting decreases.7, 2
The effects of weather extremes
on human health have been well documented, particularly for increased heavy
precipitation, which has contributed to increases in severe flooding
events in certain regions.
«Once - in - five - year» heavy
precipitation events — two - day
precipitation totals that are exceeded,
on average, only once in a 5 - year period — are becoming more common.
Precipitation extremes, many of them associated with one of the strongest La Niña
events of the past 60 years, had major impacts
on the world.
On extreme precipitation events over mid-latitude landmass and wet tropical regions becoming more intense and frequent, the CLAs clarified that the assessment was based on more than the RCPs, and that the conclusion was generally true for all these region
On extreme
precipitation events over mid-latitude landmass and wet tropical regions becoming more intense and frequent, the CLAs clarified that the assessment was based
on more than the RCPs, and that the conclusion was generally true for all these region
on more than the RCPs, and that the conclusion was generally true for all these regions.
«ENSO and greenhouse warming» «The 1990 — 1995 El Niño - Southern Oscillation
event: Longest
on record» «Temperature -
precipitation relationship of the Common Era in northern Europe»
Abstract The Key Role of Heavy
Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual Precipitation Changes in California Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human - induced climate c
Precipitation Events in Climate Model Disagreements of Future Annual
Precipitation Changes in California Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human - induced climate c
Precipitation Changes in California Climate model simulations disagree
on whether future
precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human - induced climate c
precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human - induced climate change........
In the most absurd case of Pielke misdirection, Field accurately reports the SREX findings
on extreme
precipitation events, which Pielke Jr. purports is a misrepresentation because of something that report said about flood losses.
The assistence of higher resolution projections to the vulnerability assessment of Amsterdam may lie in the analysis of consequences of an assumed sea level change
on the probability that a major storm or inland
precipitation event (or a combination of these) lead to water levels that are disruptive for the city.
One measure of heavy
precipitation events is a two - day
precipitation total that is exceeded
on average only once in a 5 - year period, also known as the once - in - five - year
event.
This information in the Tunesian National Communication does not provide any quantitative estimates of climate variability and / or change
on rain - fed agriculture, but the clear qualitative implication is that climate changes — both drought and heavy
precipitation events — will stress agriculture in Tunisia.
As we've documented here at the ENSO Blog, these patterns have their own distinct effects
on temperature and
precipitation patterns, and attributing weather
events to climate patterns is a complicated science.
It is instructive to compare these numbers with those characteristic of a set of the years during 1979 — 2012 with no or only one major regional extreme
event (in terms of land surface temperature and land
precipitation anomalies) in the NH midlatitudes, from late April / early May to late September / early October, as reported yearly since 1993 in the World Meteorological Organization statements
on the status of the global climate (see also ref.
the model does not simulate any dependence of Northern England
precipitation on the state of El Niño, with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.01 and no visual indications that extreme
events behave differently than the mean.
A December 2017 study found that global warming made the
precipitation seen over Houston and the surrounding area
on August 26 — 28 about 15 percent (8 to 19 percent) more intense, or equivalently made such an
event three (1.5 — 5) times more likely.
A December 2017 study found that global warming made the
precipitation seen over Houston and the surrounding area
on August 26 — 28 about 15 % (8 % — 19 %) more intense, or equivalently made such an
event three (1.5 — 5) times more likely.
«The impact of various WRF single - moment microphysics parameterizations
on squall line
precipitation events.»
N (1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations,
precipitation patterns, weather
events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations
on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.
Both also depend
on aging infrastructure that has already been stressed by climate hazards including heat waves, as well as coastal and riverine flooding due to a combination of sea level rise, storm surge, and extreme
precipitation events.
The observed influence of the NAO
on extreme
precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall
event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO.
More extreme
precipitation events (with 3 - hour duration) so intense than in the past they would be exceeded
on average only once every 10 years are projected to occur
on average three times as often in future in Metro Vancouver and about three and a half times as often in future in CRD.
This Section places particular emphasis
on current knowledge of past changes in key climate variables: temperature,
precipitation and atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level, patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, extreme weather and climate
events, and overall features of the climate variability.
An increase of intense
precipitation events has been found
on much of the world's land area [127]--[129].
, as more frequent rain
on snow
events enhance melting and reduce snow storage Streamflow has risen 18 % in Newhalem Creek and 19 % in Thunder Creek despite only a slight decrease, 1 % in winter
precipitation at Diablo Dam, within 5 km of both basins.