Sentences with phrase «precipitation extremes in»

Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F. W., Zhang, X. & Wehner, M. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble.

The recurring theme, though, is difficulties in conducting agriculture: drought in Central America, Pakistan, the western US or Australia, more monsoonal precipitation extremes in India, and strengthening cyclonic storms add up to a projected net global food deficit at 2.5 C.

Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: Intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models.

While researchers have identified teleconnections between El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extended winter precipitation extremes in North America using generalized extreme value (GEV) models, the regional form of the statistical relationship remains an open question.

However, studies that stratify winters into La Niña, neutral, and El Niño phases have found that precipitation extremes in neutral / La Niña winters respond differently than in El Niño winters, whereas studies that stratify ENSO data into cold / warm conditions have not found evidence for a coherent nonlinear response.

Using an ensemble of four high resolution (~ 25 km) regional climate models, this study analyses the future (2021 - 2050) spatial distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Ganges river basin based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario.

This post was originally published on this site Today the journal Nature Climate Change published results of a groundbreaking paper that explores the changing character of precipitation extremes in California.

The paper, in the new issue of Journal of Climate, is «The resolution dependence of contiguous U.S. precipitation extremes in response to CO2 forcing» — by Karin van der Wiel of Princeton and colleagues.

Kharin, V.V., F.W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang, 2005: Intercomparison of near surface temperature and precipitation extremes in AMIP - 2 simulations, reanalyses and observations.

As the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report notes, models predict that increasing temperature ought to cause greater precipitation extremes in both directions — both drought and flooding, though there are likely more areas of heavy precipitation.

In addition to accounting for drought and hurricane winds, the index considers temperature and precipitation extremes in the U.S..

Not exact matches

«We do see signs of precipitation extremes increasing in these regions.»

«We know that in particular that [the regions around] Houston, Louisiana, and Florida are prone to some of the most extreme precipitation events in the United States,» said Sarah Kapnick, a researcher at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

They're intense plumes of water vapor that cause extreme precipitation, plumes so large they resemble rivers in satellite pictures.

Climatic variability like precipitation changes or increase in extreme events such as storms and tropical cyclones is known to significantly modify the Earth's surface.

It also has seen a 71 percent increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events — more than any other region in the United States, according to the paper.

For instance, though about 30 percent of farmers surveyed agreed that extreme weather events will become more frequent in the future, 52 percent agreed that farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from increased precipitation.

«Of course, weather is naturally chaotic, and extremes are a normal part of our highly variable UK climate, but globally there has recently been an increase in the incidence of high temperature and heavy precipitation extremes.

Attributable human - induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during Hurricane Harvey.

These findings from University of Melbourne Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, reported in Nature Climate Change, are the result of research looking at how Australian extremes in heat, drought, precipitation and ocean warming will change in a world 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions.

«If we look at precipitation events over the long term, there is an increase in frequency of extremes.

The scientists were able to look at precipitation observations from 1951 to 2011 and document these changes in extremes in the period from 1981 to 2011.

Extremely heavy precipitation was projected to become even more extreme in a warmer world.

The case illustrates the challenges involved in attributing precipitation extremes and storms, which are caused by multiple factors, Hoerling said.

They were in less agreement about how intense rain or snow will be when it does fall, although there is general consensus among models that the most extreme precipitation will become more frequent.

Our study shows is that increases in the number of extreme heat and extreme precipitation events, particularly during summer months, lead to more asthma hospitalizations in Maryland.»

Still, he says, «One of the clearest signals we see is that an increase in global temperatures leads to an increase in extreme or heavy precipitation events.»

«It is therefore reasonable to expect that precipitation extremes will continue to intensify,» although how much is still a mystery, largely thanks to an unclear understanding of the atmospheric impact of how tiny flecks of pollution in the atmosphere — known as aerosols to scientists and comprising materials ranging from soot to sulfur dioxide.

«Observing rainfall in an El Niño year is especially interesting because the prevailing precipitation patterns change, often in extreme ways.

What goes up, must come down and, more and more, that water vapor is coming down in extreme precipitation events — defined in North America as more than 100 millimeters of rainfall (or the equivalent in snow or freezing rain) falling in 24 hours — according to new research also published February 17 in Nature that examines such events in the Northern Hemisphere.

Although the rising average global surface temperature is an indicator of the degree of disruption that we have imposed on the global climate system, what's actually happening involves changes in circulation patterns, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in extremes.

Climate scientists know that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is on the rise because there's more water vapor in the atmosphere caused by higher global and sea temperatures.

While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.

Expected increases in extreme heat and drought events will bring changes in precipitation, air and water temperatures, air density and humidity, write Matthew Bartos and Mikhail Chester in the current issue of the research journal Nature Climate Change.

«This increase in water vapor has contributed to increasing total precipitation in the fall season, but does not necessarily mean an increase in extreme precipitation events,» she added.

Computer models showed a reduction in what Edwards called «extreme precipitation events» in the fall season in western South Dakota when compared to climate conditions in the 1800s.

Air and water temperatures, precipitation patterns, extreme rainfall events, and seasonal variations are all known to affect disease transmission.59, 199,86 In the United States, children and the elderly are most vulnerable to serious outcomes, and those exposed to inadequately or untreated groundwater will be among those most affected.

Key weather and climate drivers of health impacts include increasingly frequent, intense, and longer - lasting extreme heat, which worsens drought, wildfire, and air pollution risks; increasingly frequent extreme precipitation, intense storms, and changes in precipitation patterns that lead to drought and ecosystem changes (Ch.

But beyond the increased amount of precipitation, Wehner adds, «this study more generally increases our understanding of how the various processes in extreme storms can change as the overall climate warms.»

The same goes for nearly 1 in 5 exceptionally heavy rainfalls and other bouts of extreme precipitation.

Nationally, the components that measure extremes in warm maximum and minimum temperature and one - day precipitation totals were much above average.

The coverage of extreme precipitation totals and warm temperatures contributed to the fourth highest U.S. Climate Extremes Index in the 106 - year record for the CONUS.

Daniel Swain and colleagues model how the frequency of these rapid, year - to - year transitions from extreme dry to wet conditions — which they dub «precipitation whiplash events» — may change in California's future as a consequence of man - made warming.

Researchers charge global warming with projected significant increases in the frequency of both extreme precipitation and landfalling atmospheric rivers

Staying on the Southern Hemisphere, a research team led by Sue Rosier, looked at extreme precipitation over the North Island of New Zealand that led to severe flooding in July 2014.

Another aspect of this phenomenon is that in a warmer, wetter world a larger proportion of the precipitation falls in extreme events.

-- Along with analyzing historical trends in temperature and precipitation, we performed an analysis of changes in extreme climate events since the middle of last century.

Warm oceans produced extensive evaporation and precipitation, which on the cold continents resulted in extreme snowfall rates that built up glaciers.

Climate model projections show a warmer Montana in the future, with mixed changes in precipitation, more extreme events, and mixed certainty on upcoming drought.

This is addressed by evaluating change in global or large - scale patterns in the frequency or intensity of extremes (e.g., observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes attributed to human influence, increase in frequency and intensity of hot extremes) and by event attribution methods.