A beautiful app built with the idea of giving you the rain probability at a glance, Raincast makes it quick and easy to stay up to date on the latest
precipitation forecast for your current location.
NOAA's
precipitation forecast for the next five days puts over five inches of rain on a very large stretch of real estate from the Mid-Atlantic up to northern Maine:
The verification of seasonal
precipitation forecasts for early warning in Zambia and Malawi.
Not exact matches
As you can see from this helpful AccuWeather radar
forecast for the greater Chicago area, a fair bit of
precipitation is currently heading toward Wrigley Field.
Weather
forecast models,
for example, include dozens of parameters from temperature and
precipitation to wind speed and lightning.
The
forecast will include details like temperature,
precipitation, humidity and wind speed
for the place from where the search has been initiated or
for a different location if the relevant name or zip code is included in the search.
And while that might make sense
for the current situation, it is much harder to understand
for forecasts one week out (where the chance of
precipitation might change from 80 % to 40 % to 20 % to 60 % in a one - hour span
for a period six days in the future).
The models are gauged against the following observation - based datasets: Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of
Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997) for precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005) for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999) for surface temperature (1961 &
Precipitation (CMAP; Xie and Arkin, 1997)
for precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005) for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999) for surface temperature (1961 &
precipitation (1980 — 1999), European Centre
for Medium Range Weather
Forecasts 40 - year reanalysis (ERA40; Uppala et al., 2005)
for sea level pressure (1980 — 1999) and Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Jones et al., 1999)
for surface temperature (1961 — 1990).
To solve this problem I looked at three patterns of the 6558 day period, overlaid them at the daily weather data level, and plotted the resultant combined signal
for Precipitation, and temperature patterns
for the USA, extended that cyclic interpenetration
for a six year period, and plotted out maps to show the repeating reoccurring patterns in the global circulation, as a (6 year long stretch, we are now ~ 40 months into the posted 6 years long)
forecast for part of the current repeat of the 6558 day long cycle.
They struggle to capture regional detail and
precipitation; none can successfully
forecast the eminently predictable daily rainfall in the Amazon,
for instance.
eCast's web - based interface allows easy access to meaningful
forecast ranges, timescales and visualizations
for maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the probability of
precipitation, over the next 10 - days.
There are no mean rate
precipitation fields - the
precipitation fields are accumulated from the beginning of the
forecast for + step hours.
More accurate and reliable
precipitation data would be invaluable, not only
for the study of climate trends and variability, but also as inputs to hydrological and ecological models and
for model validation, characterization of extreme events, and flood and drought
forecasting.
This justifies,
for example, the so - called ensemble
forecasting in
precipitation and flood prediction.
forecast lead - time at which the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS)
for ENS probabilistic
forecasts of 24 - hour total
precipitation reaches 10 %
for the extra-tropics (northern and southern hemispheres); verification against station observations
The weather service's long - term
forecast calls
for normal temperatures and
precipitation through the rest of the winter — except, possibly, in western Alaska.
CAS = Commission
for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on
Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble
Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative
precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction
Here's an example showing how more torrential
precipitation events are in the
forecast for southeastern states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama.
The latest dynamical model
forecasts are calling
for well above average
precipitation throughout California during the January - March period, and the recent
forecasts from the CFS model have shifted towards a wet December as well.
Here are some examples: # 1) «A Parallel Nonnegative Tensor Factorization Algorithm
for Mining Global Climate Data» http://www.springerlink.com/content/u4x12132j06r40h3/ (from LNCS - Lecture Notes in Computer Science) # 2) «Dowinscaling of
precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach» http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/18799/ (Journal Of Hydrology) # 3) «Semi-supervised learning with data calibration
for long - term time series
forecasting» http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=1401911 (Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining Journal) There are tons that I can quoted, but the 3 references that I have linked to above clarifies my point.
Well, speaking only of Queensland, Chapter 11 of AR4 WG1, Regional Climate Projections, was very careful to make no specific projections
for Australia and Queensland until 2080 - 2099 -LRB-(fig. 11.17), by when only those under 30 now are likely to be alive to verify whether its actual prediction of NO FLOODS in the Western Pacific proved correct: ALL 21 of the models deployed to make that prediction actually
forecast precipitation at LESS than the average in 1980 - 1999.
For precipitation, using
forecast SSTs leads to an attribution statement of the same order of magnitude but quantitatively on the more conservative side.
Worse yet, the snow on the ground — by lowering air temperatures several degrees — increases the likelihood that
precipitation from forthcoming storms, like the one
forecast for Friday, will tend toward the frozen variety.
Model
precipitation «
forecasts» over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations
for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the
precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days.
Using simulation models that account
for the impact of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on temperature and
precipitation in the region, scientists at the Hadley Center
for Climate Prediction and Research in the UK have
forecast significant «die - back» of the Amazon rain forest by mid-century and a virtual collapse of the ecosystem by 2100.
The physical link between SST and
precipitation for any individual hurricane is not controversial, it is routinely exploited in the hurricane
forecast models used by the national hurricane center.
The NOAA
precipitation forecast (scheduled weather) map below is
for the same window of time as the NOAA map above.
These are just a few of the problems illustrated by the attempt to
forecast precipitation for Africa.