Interestingly, East Africa is one region where IPCC models predict
precipitation increases for the coming century.
Not exact matches
For instance, though about 30 percent of farmers surveyed agreed that extreme weather events will become more frequent in the future, 52 percent agreed that farmers should take additional steps to protect their land from
increased precipitation.
In addition, strong biosphere - radiation feedbacks are often present in several moderately wet regions,
for instance in the Eastern U.S. and in the Mediterranean, where
precipitation and radiation
increase vegetation growth.
Acknowledging the effects of decreasing
precipitation requires changes in how resource specialists approach climate change adaptation
for water resources and forest management compared to preparing
for increased temperature alone,» he said.
«Plants, animals, and people all depend on forests and may all face additional challenges as temperatures
increase and
precipitation patterns shift,» said John Shuey, a co-author of the study and Director of Conservation Science
for the Indiana Chapter of The Nature Conservancy.
«The overall predictions
for the future of the area is of a more maritime climate, particularly warmer temperatures and
increased precipitation during winter,» Høye says.
The drought in California has been building
for more than four years, as winter
precipitation deficits slowed streams to a trickle and sent reservoir levels dipping, while unusually warm temperatures
increased water demand.
An
increased risk of intense, short - duration rainfall events in mid-latitude regions has been predicted consistently
for well over a decade as part of the pattern of human influence on
precipitation.
It needs to be clarified here, that it is hypothetically possible to get more snowfall and snowpack in a globally warming world (at least
for a while), due to
increased precipitation (which is predicted in a warming world, esp
for the higher latitudes) coming down as snow.
Increases have also been reported
for rarer
precipitation events (1 in 50 year return period), but only a few regions have sufficient data to assess such trends reliably.
A significant
increase in spring
precipitation (1.3 - 2.0 inches [3.3 - 5.1 cm]-RRB- has also occurred during this period
for the eastern portion of the state.
As noted in the Key Climate Projections
for Montana section (above),
precipitation is projected to
increase in some regions, and in some seasons, but not in others.
For the hydrological modelling of the Thames river catchment done at CEH we showed that the changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation caused higher peak 30 - day river flow, while flood risk mapping revealed a small increase in flood risk for properties in the Thames catchme
For the hydrological modelling of the Thames river catchment done at CEH we showed that the changes in atmospheric circulation and
precipitation caused higher peak 30 - day river flow, while flood risk mapping revealed a small
increase in flood risk
for properties in the Thames catchme
for properties in the Thames catchment.
Projected temperature and
precipitation increases may be favorable in the short term
for some Montana crops and forage production, but the effects of warming will become increasingly disruptive as they accelerate beyond adaptation thresholds.
ACPI assumes a 1 percent annual
increase in the rate of greenhouse gas concentrations through the year 2100,
for little change in
precipitation and an average temperature
increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees centigrade at least through the middle of 21st century.
While the individual weather pattern may allow
for heavy rain, the heaviest of this
precipitation is
increasing as the world warms from climate change.
However,
increased variability in
precipitation suggests potential
for more severe droughts, particularly in connection with climate oscillations.
Global models
for the 21st century find an
increased variability of
precipitation minus evaporation [P - E] in most of the world, especially near the equator and at high latitudes [125].
Here's the problem forests and forest managers face under climate change:
Increasing global mean temperatures, changes in
precipitation, and the hydrologic cycle are expected to lead to temperature and drought stress
for many tree species.
Climate change will also
increase precipitation and raise water temperatures, which could eliminate suitable spawning habitat
for salmon and wash away their eggs and fry from spawning streams, killing the young.
Meehl's study suggests that the planet will continue to see
increased precipitation for several more decades, regardless of any changes humans make now.
Risk factors
for exposure include areas with high ambient temperatures,
increased precipitation, outdoor water source exposure, and the presence of wildlife such as rats, raccoons, and opossums.
Please note clinics are weather permitting may be canceled
for high temperatures, low temperatures,
precipitation, air quality or any other factors that may
increase risks to citizens or animals at the outdoor clinic.
The abstract of the Ainsworth et al seems to provide some support
for both TC and BPL: «Rising atmospheric [CO2] is altering global temperature and
precipitation patterns, which challenges agricultural productivity,» yet «rising [CO2] provides a unique opportunity to
increase the productivity of C3 crops...»
doi: 10.1130 / G23261A.1 v. 35 no. 3 p. 215 - 218 Abrupt
increase in seasonal extreme
precipitation at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary B Schmitz, V Pujalte — Geology, 2007 — geology.gsapubs.org A prominent
increase in atmospheric CO2 at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary, ca. 55 Ma, led to the warmest Earth of the Cenozoic
for ∼ 100 ky High - resolution studies of continental flood - plain sediment records across this boundary....
As
for precipitation, [Moelg and Hardy, 2004] tentatively conclude that the glacier might be in positive mass balance if snowfall were
increased to its 1880 maximum rate, even if temperature is held fixed at its present value.
Could,
for example, their share of global
precipitation be
increasing relative to the area in the broad temperate / tropic belt?
If tropical glaciers continue to retreat despite an
increase in
precipitation, that will constitute a powerful case
for the role of air temperature.
In Relationships between Water Vapor Path and
Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific warmer surface waters
increased the water in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific
for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amounts.
Indeed, snowfall is often predicted to
increase in many regions in response to anthropogenic climate change, since warmer air, all other things being equal, holds more moisture, and therefore, the potential
for greater amounts of
precipitation whatever form that
precipitation takes.
Global models that combine
precipitation, temperature, and CO2 effects
for the A2 scenario generally show reduced yields in the tropics and
increased yields in temperate zones (26).
I would also cite Zwally et al (2005)
for evidence from the Greenland Ice Sheet and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balances that are consistent with
increasing winter
precipitation and warmer temperatures.
Nevertheless, the IPCC AR5 presents an outlook of
increasing extreme
precipitation in tropical cyclones making landfall (p. 106, Table TS.2), which is relevant
for the flooding connected to Harvey.
Actually global warming is supposed to
increase precipitation in Antarctica, not decrease it — as raising the temperature puts more moisture in the air
for precipitation.
Only a few years before they thought that the mass balance of Antarctica would
increase for a while due to
increased precipitation in the interior.
Given that atmospheric water - holding capacity is expected to
increase roughly exponentially with temperature — and that atmospheric water content is
increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation (6 — 11)-- it has been suggested that human influenced global warming may be partly responsible
for increases in heavy
precipitation (3,5,7).
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale
increase in
precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread
increase in heavy
precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism
for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent
increases in the intensity of heavy
precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area (3 — 5), is critical
for reliable projections of future changes.
The way I think about is that
for precipitation there is a shift in distribution caused by
increased water vapor.
So while the monsoon winds might weaken the
precipitation nonetheless
increases (more bang
for the buck) as a weaker circulation carries more water vapor (and latent energy).
A new study co-authored by Francis Zwiers, the director of UVic's Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, suggests that human - induced global warming may be responsible
for the
increases in heavy
precipitation that have been observed over much of the Northern Hemisphere including North America and Eurasia over the past several decades.
For example the
increasing trend in the coherent NHSM decadal
precipitation shown in the paper (Figure S3B: the spatial pattern and associated principal component time series of the EOF) in fact suggest a weakening over recent decades in much of India and East Asia.
«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence
for an anthropogenic influence on extreme
precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme
precipitation would be expected to have
increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme
precipitation events will
increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean
precipitation..
In the Northeast, «Communities are affected by heat waves, more extreme
precipitation events, and coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge,»
for example, while in the Southeast and Caribbean, «Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land - use change, causes
increased competition
for water.
The net change over land accounts
for 24 % of the global mean
increase in
precipitation, a little less than the areal proportion of land (29 %).
Tropical land - surface
precipitation measurements indicate that
precipitation likely has
increased by about 0.2 to 0.3 % / decade over the 20th century, but
increases are not evident over the past few decades and the amount of tropical land (versus ocean) area
for the latitudes 10 ° N to 10 ° S is relatively small.
As a consequence, even in regions or states where there is a strong
increasing trend in heavy
precipitation, the trend at an individual
precipitation gauge that represents the official total
for a city may be equivocal, flat, or even down.
As the number of days with extreme
precipitation increases, the risk
for intense and damaging floods is also expected to
increase throughout much of the country.
Climate scientists have already shown that
increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as a consequence of human activity are partially responsible
for the average global
increase in heavy
precipitation.
The
increased temperatures and
precipitation brought about by climate change have made it possible
for beech trees to thrive in the northeastern U.S. and Southern Canada, and researchers say this is not a good thing.