Although the current study is limited by the fact that the authors looked only at runoff and held other variables such as land cover constant, the results could be relevant to other regions that are likely to experience
precipitation increases in a warming world.
Not exact matches
Indeed, conventional wisdom held that higher levels of aerosol pollution
in the atmosphere should cool the earth's climate because aerosols can
increase cloudiness; they not only reduce
precipitation, which raises the water content
in clouds, but they also
increase the size of the individual water droplets, which
in turn causes more
warming sunlight to be reflected back into space.
«We expect a widespread
increase in heavy
precipitation due to greenhouse gas
warming leading to a moister atmosphere,» explains climatologist Gabriele Hegerl of the University of Edinburgh
in Scotland.
The drought
in California has been building for more than four years, as winter
precipitation deficits slowed streams to a trickle and sent reservoir levels dipping, while unusually
warm temperatures
increased water demand.
And more water vapor worldwide is related to the atmosphere being
warmer — we have about 7 percent more water vapor
in the atmosphere now than we did
in the 1950s, which is directly linked to the
increase in heavy
precipitation events.
But beyond the
increased amount of
precipitation, Wehner adds, «this study more generally
increases our understanding of how the various processes
in extreme storms can change as the overall climate
warms.»
Studies by Climate Central and other groups have shown an
increase in the odds of some
precipitation events from
warming.
It needs to be clarified here, that it is hypothetically possible to get more snowfall and snowpack
in a globally
warming world (at least for a while), due to
increased precipitation (which is predicted
in a
warming world, esp for the higher latitudes) coming down as snow.
Researchers charge global
warming with projected significant
increases in the frequency of both extreme
precipitation and landfalling atmospheric rivers
Direct effects are impacts to trees that arise directly
in response to changes
in temperature and
precipitation; indirect effects are secondary impacts, such as
increased number of fires associated with
warming temperatures, which then affect trees and forests.
Projected temperature and
precipitation increases may be favorable
in the short term for some Montana crops and forage production, but the effects of
warming will become increasingly disruptive as they accelerate beyond adaptation thresholds.
In locations that are accustomed to getting snow during the winter, the total amount of snow each year is already decreasing as the planet
warms from
increasing greenhouse gases; the percentage of
precipitation falling as snow is on the decline, with more of it falling as rain.
While there has been a 70 percent
increase in heavy
precipitation events
in the region since 1958, most of that has been
in warm weather rainstorms, Ken Kunkel, a researcher at the National Climatic Data Center
in Asheville, N.C., said.
«We show that at the present - day
warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily
precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature
increase since pre-industrial times, which
in turn primarily results from human influence,» the research team said.
The very
increase in absolute humidity that reinforced the
warming trend through infrared absorption might lead to
increased cloudiness (or indeed to
increased precipitation and winter snow cover) and thus, through reflection of insolation, to a considerable buffering of the
warming trend.
doi: 10.1130 / G23261A.1 v. 35 no. 3 p. 215 - 218 Abrupt
increase in seasonal extreme
precipitation at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary B Schmitz, V Pujalte — Geology, 2007 — geology.gsapubs.org A prominent
increase in atmospheric CO2 at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary, ca. 55 Ma, led to the
warmest Earth of the Cenozoic for ∼ 100 ky High - resolution studies of continental flood - plain sediment records across this boundary....
«The major trends over time are a wintertime WVP and LWP
increase south and southwest of Greenland also seen
in precipitation, consistent with modification of continental air flowing out over increasingly
warmer waters.
The report, «Atmospheric
Warming and the Amplification of
Precipitation Extremes,» previewed
in Science Express this Thursday, August 7, and published
in an upcoming issue of Science, found that both observations and models indicated an
increase in heavy rainstorms
in response to a
warmer climate.
In Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific warmer surface waters increased the water in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
In Relationships between Water Vapor Path and
Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific
warmer surface waters
increased the water
in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower
in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor
in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
in the atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day
in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day
in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amount
in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amounts.
Indeed, snowfall is often predicted to
increase in many regions
in response to anthropogenic climate change, since
warmer air, all other things being equal, holds more moisture, and therefore, the potential for greater amounts of
precipitation whatever form that
precipitation takes.
The range
in the CMIP simulations wasn't all that narrow
in any case (2 to 4.1 ºC at equilibrium I think), and yes,
precipitation is more variable (1 to 3 %
increase per degree of
warming).
The result is that there is no difference
in regional cloud cover trends, neither of
precipitation, with
increasing contamination and that the contaminated area has more dimming, but
warmed more than the less contaminated area.
However, it has been known since the earliest general circulation simulations by Manabe that as the Earth
warms in response to
increasing CO2, the
precipitation increases much more slowly than Clausius - Clapeyron would suggest — typically only 2 - 3 % per degree of
warming.
If you were
in a situation where there was initially more
precipitation than radiative cooling could handle, then the atmosphere could just
warm up until the radiative cooling
increased — though then you'd have to worry about how much the
warming affects
precipitation, etc..
I certainly agree that continued
warming will
increase the frequency of a variety of extremes related to heat, sea level,
precipitation, etc. and
in fact, some of that is already happening.
So a local spike
in precipitation releases a lot of heat — but as the heat
increases, this negatively affects the vapor - > water transition (
precipitation, or raindrop formation), since
warm air holds more water then cool air — and so the limit on
precipitation vis - a-vis the radiative balance of the atmosphere appears.
A gentle global
increase in precipitation with
warming can be made up by localized systems becoming more intense while vast other areas get drier and more sluggish.
It is reasonable to assume that the freshwater input will continue to
increase in the future because the earth is
warming, causing
increasing ice melt and
increased precipitation (both over ocean and over land, which yields larger river runoff to the ocean).
Actually global
warming is supposed to
increase precipitation in Antarctica, not decrease it — as raising the temperature puts more moisture
in the air for
precipitation.
Given that atmospheric water - holding capacity is expected to
increase roughly exponentially with temperature — and that atmospheric water content is
increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation (6 — 11)-- it has been suggested that human influenced global
warming may be partly responsible for
increases in heavy
precipitation (3,5,7).
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic influences on large scale
increase in precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread
increase in heavy
precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with
warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from climate variability — the separation will always be statistical
in nature.
However, higher temperatures do cause an
increased chance of heavy
precipitation events, and it is likely that the flooding
in some of this year's U.S. flooding disasters were significantly enhanced by the presence of more water vapor
in the air due to global
warming.
A new study co-authored by Francis Zwiers, the director of UVic's Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, suggests that human - induced global
warming may be responsible for the
increases in heavy
precipitation that have been observed over much of the Northern Hemisphere including North America and Eurasia over the past several decades.
Changes
in extreme
precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes
in extreme
precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed
increase in heavy
precipitation with
warming.
As both evaporation rates and heavy rainfall events
increase in a
warming world, this lends itself to bigger variations
in precipitation.
Warming leads to
increased evaporation and
precipitation, which falls as
increased snow
in winter.
The
warming of approximately 0.1 — 0.2 °C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the
increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy
precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts
in the natural ranges of plants and animals.
First, I thought the prediction was more usually that
precipitation will
increase, and that much of the strongest
warming will be
in the cooler parts of the world.
Impact of Global
Warming Sea level rising Altered
precipitation pattern Change
in soil moisture content
Increase in some extreme weather More flood more.
Impact of Global
Warming Sea level rising Altered
precipitation pattern Change
in soil moisture content
Increase.
Warming temperatures, changes
in precipitation, and more extreme weather are projected to
increase populations of disease - carrying vectors like mosquitoes with West Nile Virus and of the types of bacteria and toxic algae that contaminate shellfish and recreational waters for activities like swimming and boating.
Large - scale flooding can also occur due to extreme
precipitation in the absence of snowmelt (for example, Rush Creek and the Root River, Minnesota,
in August 2007 and multiple rivers
in southern Minnesota
in September 2010).84 These
warm - season events are projected to
increase in magnitude.
For every degree of global
warming, the forest needs a 15 percent
increase in precipitation to compensate for the
increased drying caused by
warming, according to a recent study.
Our
warming world is, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
increasing heat waves and intense
precipitation in some places, and is likely to bring more extreme weather
in the future.
These methods have been significantly improved by fully coupling the hydrologic cycle among land, lake, and atmosphere.94, 95 Without accounting for that cycle of interactions, a study96 concluded that
increases in precipitation would be negated by
increases in winter evaporation from less ice cover and by
increases in summer evaporation and evapotranspiration from
warmer air temperatures, under a scenario of continued
increases in global emissions (SRES A2 scenario).
Water levels are influenced by the amount of evaporation from decreased ice cover and
warmer air temperatures, by evapotranspiration from
warmer air temperatures, and by potential
increases in inflow from more
precipitation.
Although there is as yet no convincing evidence
in the observed record of changes
in tropical cyclone behaviour, a synthesis of the recent model results indicates that, for the future
warmer climate, tropical cyclones will show
increased peak wind speed and
increased mean and peak
precipitation intensities.
This can be affected by
warming temperatures, but also by changes
in snowfall, increases in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in snowfall,
increases in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease
in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover, and
increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline
in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover and
precipitation.18
Apart from driving temperatures up, global
warming is likely to cause bigger, more destructive storms, leading to an overall
increase in precipitation.
Agricultural growing seasons
warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends
in most regions, while
precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate.