Sentences with phrase «precipitation trends for»

Van Haren et al (2012) also nicely illustrate the dependence of regional skill on lateral boundary conditions: simulations of (historic) precipitation trends for Europe failed to match the observed trends when lateral boundary conditions were provided from an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate model simulations, while a much better correspondence with observations was obtained when reanalyses were used as boundary condition.

Global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showing temperature and precipitation trends for two different future scenarios, as described in the Climate chapter of this assessment (IPCC 2014a).

Not exact matches

Extreme rainfall events are trending upward, and nine of the top 10 years for extreme one - day precipitation events have happened since 1990.

And lastly, although the models get the precipitation trends spot - on, they «significantly underestimate the magnitude of change [in rainfall],» Hegerl admits, explaining that better modeling is near the top of the agenda for the researchers.

... A remarkable trend to decrease of precipitation is also observed for the central region of Chile, and the Argentinean Region of Cuyo, Province of Neuquén and the western part of Río Negro and Chubut.

If we can identify what the dominant controls on those thresholds are climatically, we may be able to assess whether trends in temperature are more relevant than those for precipitation.»

Increases have also been reported for rarer precipitation events (1 in 50 year return period), but only a few regions have sufficient data to assess such trends reliably.

Seasonal decreases in land precipitation since the 1950s are the main cause for some of the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying.

Given these trends and projections for temperature and precipitation, for the remainder of this chapter we consider the impacts of continued warming to Montana forests.

Future precipitation trends in both areas aren't as clear, though there are indications that rain will come in more intense, episodic bursts, leaving more time between them for trees to experience drought stress.

Although all downscaled temperature trends project a future warming, scenarios for precipitation are more ambiguous.

Even the admirable Revkin doesn't get it quite right: On horizontal surfaces, observations and modeling show a role for melting in both the baseline ablation and the sensitivity of ablation to precipitation and temperature; melting is the dominant ablation mechanism on vertical ice cliffs; and though Kaser et al find «no evidence» about rising temperatures, it is only because the in situ studies don't cover a long enough period to detect trends.

For example, nearly all recent model intercomparisons show that AOGCMs poorly reproduce precipitation in 30 ° S - 30 ° N, they still diverge for cloud cover evolution at different levels of the vertical column, and I don't clearly understand for my part how we can speculate on long term trends of tropospheric T without a good understanding of these convection - condensation - precipitation proceFor example, nearly all recent model intercomparisons show that AOGCMs poorly reproduce precipitation in 30 ° S - 30 ° N, they still diverge for cloud cover evolution at different levels of the vertical column, and I don't clearly understand for my part how we can speculate on long term trends of tropospheric T without a good understanding of these convection - condensation - precipitation procefor cloud cover evolution at different levels of the vertical column, and I don't clearly understand for my part how we can speculate on long term trends of tropospheric T without a good understanding of these convection - condensation - precipitation procefor my part how we can speculate on long term trends of tropospheric T without a good understanding of these convection - condensation - precipitation process.

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin https://books.google.com/books?isbn=3319160060 The BACC II Author Team averaged frequency of extreme 1 - day precipitation totals above 15 mm and a... 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation 4.6.1 Cloudiness Records of cloudiness and solar... There is a trend of decreasing cloud cover over the Baltic Sea basin......

There have also been some reports on trends of more extreme precipitation, although The International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG, 2005) did not manage to attribute trends in precipitation to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (G)-- a quote from their review article is: «For diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation, detection is not achieved», here «detection» implying the signal of G.

We do know that there are trends in temperature extremes and precipitation extremes (which are backed solidly by physics in a warming climate), but for the other metrics we don't really see trends at all.

For example the increasing trend in the coherent NHSM decadal precipitation shown in the paper (Figure S3B: the spatial pattern and associated principal component time series of the EOF) in fact suggest a weakening over recent decades in much of India and East Asia.

This apparent inconsistency says little about the overall trend in the heaviest precipitation events, but a lot about the weaknesses of single - point measurements for detecting trends in extreme precipitation.

As a consequence, even in regions or states where there is a strong increasing trend in heavy precipitation, the trend at an individual precipitation gauge that represents the official total for a city may be equivocal, flat, or even down.

Increases have also been reported for rarer precipitation events (1 in 50 year return period), but only a few regions have sufficient data to assess such trends reliably (see Figure TS.10).

This criterion may not be satisfied if observations are available only over a short time period (as is the case for the vertical structure of clouds), or if the predictor is defined through low - frequency variability (trends, decadal variability), or if there is a lack of consistency among available datasets (as in the case for global - mean precipitation and surface fluxes).

Precipitation is highly variable spatially and temporally, and robust long - term trends have not been established for other large regions.

For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.

More accurate and reliable precipitation data would be invaluable, not only for the study of climate trends and variability, but also as inputs to hydrological and ecological models and for model validation, characterization of extreme events, and flood and drought forecasting.

An examination of hydro - climatic trends in the Salt - Verde watersheds revealed that temperatures are non-stationary, increasing significantly in recent decades, but the same is not true for winter precipitation or resulting stream flows [55].

For regional climate predictability, the added value of RCMs should come from better resolving the relationship between mean (temperature) trends and key indicators that are supposedly better represented in the high resolution projections utilizing additional local information, such as temperature or precipitation extremes.

These mismatches are responsible for a large part of the misrepresentation of precipitation trends in climate models.

While seemingly incongruous, scientists are predicting both more droughts and flooding for the southeastern United States, noting that the region has already experienced changes in the frequency, distribution, and intensity of precipitation, a trend that is expected to continue.

Seasonal decreases in land precipitation since the 1950s are the main cause for some of the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying.

And current climate change trends could easily increase the chance of bad flooding — there's more water vapor in the atmosphere now (ready to condense into storm clouds and precipitation), for example, than there was 70 years ago.

Hoerling: «We can also say with high confidence that no appreciable trend toward either wetter or drier conditions has been observed for statewide average precipitation since 1895» — «At present, the scientific evidence does not support an argument that the drought there is appreciably linked to human - induced climate change... In short, the drought gripping California has been observed before.

Future 30 - year trends (2016 — 2045) in winter (a, b) SAT (°C per 30 years; color shading) and (c, d) precipitation (mm day − 1 per 30 years; color shading) from simulations 13 and 25 of the CESM1 Large Ensemble, chosen for their contrasting SLP trends (contours; interval = 1 hPa per 30 years with negative values dashed)

Note that the sign of precipitation trends in areas most directly impacted by the NAO such as southern Europe and the west coasts of Norway, the U.K. and Iceland, remains uncertain even for the next 50 years (Fig. 10d) consistent with the results shown in Figs.

For instance: in support of «temperatures and causality» he cites a paper by Zhang et al on «Detection of human influence on twentieth century precipitation trends».

a Ensemble - mean of scaled - interannual regressions of winter SLP (contours) and SAT (color shading) anomalies upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP anomalies during 1920 — 2012; b SLP and SAT trend regressions upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP 30 - year trends based on 2016 — 2045; c as in (a) but for precipitation in place of SAT; d as in (b) but for precipitation in place of SAT.

Note that for precipitation, a small chance of a positive trend (moistening) is equivalent to a high chance of a negative trend (drying).

Some excerpts copied for your info: Because of a dearth (line 42) of quality precipitation data, it is very difficult to assess whether precipitation trends over the past few decades in the Arctic drainage areas also show an increase (ACIA, 2005).

Presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961 — 2010 and 1986 — 2010 intervals

Puma and his coauthor, Benjamin Cook, a climatologist at Goddard and Columbia's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory, are the first to look at the historic effects of mass watering on climate globally by analyzing temperature, precipitation and irrigation trends in a series of model simulations for the last century.

Finally, unlike precipitation, for which long and reliable historical records exist in some parts of the world, records for other aspects of weather are too short to detect trends or contain observational biases that render trends meaningless.

It follows that more global precipitation is a sign of cooling whereas less global precipitation is a sign of warming but for the purposes of this article I am looking for a more consistent weather indicator of global temperature trend.

«Our analysis is the first to bridge these gaps for a large range of impacts, by assessing the role of human - related emissions in each impact individually, including impacts related to trends in precipitation and sea ice.»

However, the researchers could not find the same kind of link for trends in precipitation.

b Trends surface temperature from the GOGA CAM3 simulations (background colorscale; air temperature over sea ice and SST elsewhere) along with the Z850 trend produced by the model simulations (black contours; negative dashed and positive solid; interval of 3 m / decade) and the simulated convective precipitation trends (positive green contours, negative red contours, contoured at − 0.7, − 0.3, − 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, and 0.7 mm / day / decade, shown only for 45 ° S — 45 ° N. (c) As in (b) but for the TOGA CAM3 simulations.

The same should be true for climate change we should evaluate the changes in temperature (not anomalies) over time at the same stations and present the data as a spaghetti graph showing any differing trends and not assume that regional or climates in gridded areas are the same — which they are not as is obvious from the climate zones that exist or microclimates due to changes in precipitation, land use etc..

As for the 2006 study, it goes on to say: «The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased.»

''... report that «most trends exhibited no clear precipitation change,» noting that «global changes in precipitation over the Earth's land mass excluding Antarctica relative to 1961 - 90 were estimated to be: -1.2 ± 1.7, 2.6 ± 2.5 and -5.4 ± 8.1 percent per century for the periods 1850 - 2000, 1900 - 2000 and 1950 - 2000, respectively.»

But given what is known, he said «there is every reason to believe that the trend toward greater variability, larger anomalies, is true for precipitation as well as temperature.»

... A remarkable trend to decrease of precipitation is also observed for the central region of Chile, and the Argentinean Region of Cuyo, Province of Neuquén and the western part of Río Negro and Chubut.