Sentences with phrase «precipitation trends on»

Not exact matches

The flooding continued the heavy precipitation trend of 2010, which was the wettest year on record.

Recent Forest Service studies on high - elevation climate trends in the Pacific Northwest United States show that streamflow declines tie directly to decreases and changes in winter winds that bring precipitation across the region.

While Mora's models, based on yearly average temperatures, don't forecast monthly highs, lows or precipitation changes, they do show warming trends.

At the top the trend in annual measured precipitation between 1951 and 2010 is shown from the last scientific report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

And lastly, although the models get the precipitation trends spot - on, they «significantly underestimate the magnitude of change [in rainfall],» Hegerl admits, explaining that better modeling is near the top of the agenda for the researchers.

«Our study has found evidence to the contrary, suggesting that in fact, the future long - term trend based on paleoclimate reconstructions is likely towards diminishing precipitation, with no relief in the form of increased Mediterranean storms, the primary source of annual precipitation to the region, in the foreseeable future.»

If we can identify what the dominant controls on those thresholds are climatically, we may be able to assess whether trends in temperature are more relevant than those for precipitation.»

Global climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, showing temperature and precipitation trends for two different future scenarios, as described in the Climate chapter of this assessment (IPCC 2014a).

«The rising risk results from decreases in precipitation, based on 16 leading climate models, and increases in water demand, based on current growth trends.

Even the admirable Revkin doesn't get it quite right: On horizontal surfaces, observations and modeling show a role for melting in both the baseline ablation and the sensitivity of ablation to precipitation and temperature; melting is the dominant ablation mechanism on vertical ice cliffs; and though Kaser et al find «no evidence» about rising temperatures, it is only because the in situ studies don't cover a long enough period to detect trendOn horizontal surfaces, observations and modeling show a role for melting in both the baseline ablation and the sensitivity of ablation to precipitation and temperature; melting is the dominant ablation mechanism on vertical ice cliffs; and though Kaser et al find «no evidence» about rising temperatures, it is only because the in situ studies don't cover a long enough period to detect trendon vertical ice cliffs; and though Kaser et al find «no evidence» about rising temperatures, it is only because the in situ studies don't cover a long enough period to detect trends.

For example, nearly all recent model intercomparisons show that AOGCMs poorly reproduce precipitation in 30 ° S - 30 ° N, they still diverge for cloud cover evolution at different levels of the vertical column, and I don't clearly understand for my part how we can speculate on long term trends of tropospheric T without a good understanding of these convection - condensation - precipitation process.

Although there is still some disagreement in the preliminary results (eg the description of polar ice caps), a lot of things appear to be quite robust as the climate models for instance indicate consistent patterns of surface warming and rainfall trends: the models tend to agree on a stronger warming in the Arctic and stronger precipitation changes in the Topics (see crude examples for the SRES A1b scenarios given in Figures 1 & 2; Note, the degrees of freedom varies with latitude, so that the uncertainty of these estimates are greater near the poles).

Further, let's agree that this will on average cause more precipitation due to increased evaporation at these higher temperatures (the best data I have seen say that the precipitation trend over the continental US — where we have the best long term records — is up 5 - 10 % over the last century).

There have also been some reports on trends of more extreme precipitation, although The International Ad Hoc Detection and Attribution Group (IDAG, 2005) did not manage to attribute trends in precipitation to anthropogenic greenhouse gases (G)-- a quote from their review article is: «For diurnal temperature range (DTR) and precipitation, detection is not achieved», here «detection» implying the signal of G.

As you can see, the variability around the trend is largely explained by temperature and precipitation, while there is (near) zero influence on the trend itself...

For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.

Van Haren et al (2012) also nicely illustrate the dependence of regional skill on lateral boundary conditions: simulations of (historic) precipitation trends for Europe failed to match the observed trends when lateral boundary conditions were provided from an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate model simulations, while a much better correspondence with observations was obtained when reanalyses were used as boundary condition.

Zhang, Xuebin et al., «Detection of human influence on twentieth century precipitation trends», Nature 2007

For instance: in support of «temperatures and causality» he cites a paper by Zhang et al on «Detection of human influence on twentieth century precipitation trends».

The NAO's prominent upward trend from the 1950s to the 1990s caused large regional changes in air temperature, precipitation, wind and storminess, with accompanying impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and contributed to the accelerated rise in global mean surface temperature (e.g., Hurrell 1996; Ottersen et al. 2001; Thompson et al. 2000; Visbeck et al. 2003; Stenseth et al. 2003).

a Ensemble - mean of scaled - interannual regressions of winter SLP (contours) and SAT (color shading) anomalies upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP anomalies during 1920 — 2012; b SLP and SAT trend regressions upon the normalized leading PC of winter SLP 30 - year trends based on 2016 — 2045; c as in (a) but for precipitation in place of SAT; d as in (b) but for precipitation in place of SAT.

The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member.

This study has highlighted the role of internal variability of the NAO, the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the Atlantic / European sector, on winter (December - March) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (P) trends over the next 30 years (and the next 50 years: see Supplemental Materials) using a new 40 - member ensemble of climate change simulations with CESM1.

Puma and his coauthor, Benjamin Cook, a climatologist at Goddard and Columbia's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory, are the first to look at the historic effects of mass watering on climate globally by analyzing temperature, precipitation and irrigation trends in a series of model simulations for the last century.

Singh and her Lamont colleagues research climate change impacts on weather patterns by analyzing weather trends in daily temperatures, precipitation, and atmospheric patterns that have occurred during the past 40 years, in the post-satellite era.

Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, F.H. Lambert, N.P Gillett, S. Solomon, P.A. Stott, T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human infuence on twentieth - century precipitation trends.

Overlay all of that on a trend of a changing climate, and the data are pretty clear that in the Sierra Nevada, over time, we're going to see more precipitation fall as rain and less as snow.

On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.

Previous studies on the modification of precipitation trends by quantile mapping have focused on mean quantities, with less attention paid to extremes.

He said severe effects of climate change on water resources could be seen in shape of changes in precipitation, drastic increasing trends in temperature, hazardous alteration in period of winter and summer, harmful rising in the sea level and depletion of groundwater.

Detection of human influence on twentieth - century precipitation trends, Nature, 448, 461 — 465, doi: 10.1038 / nature06025.

While Zhang et al. (2007) concluded globally that they had detected an anthropogenic influence on the overall latitudinal patterns of precipitation trends (that is, the climate model trends were of the same sign as the observed trends), in the latitude band that includes the majority of the United States population a mismatch between model projections and precipitation trends was found (Figure 1).

«The rising risk results from decreases in precipitation, based on 16 leading climate models, and increases in water demand, based on current growth trends.

As for the 2006 study, it goes on to say: «The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased.»

But the trends on Lake Mead something has to change soon in precipitation patterns or water use.

Zhang, X., F.W. Zwiers, G.C. Hegerl, F.H. Lambert, N.P. Gillett, S. Solomon, P. Stott and T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human influence on 20th century precipitation trends.

On the other hand, a declining trend in precipitation has been observed in southern Chile, south - west Argentina, southern Peru and western Central America.