Mean modeled winter precipitation from CESM LME ensemble members 2 to 5 show unsystematic differences in Southwest winter
precipitation variability between each other and with our NADA PDSI time series (Table 1, S1 Fig).
Not exact matches
It is important to note that RMSE tends to increase with
variability, as illustrated at some locations closer to the equator that tend to have higher
precipitation magnitudes (and
variability) and therefore larger differences
between RMSE and MAE (Figure 1).
The latter would explain the lack of coherence in terms of
variability between CESM - derived winter
precipitation ensemble members and NADA - derived hydroclimatic conditions across the American Southwest.
increases the
variability in temperature and
precipitation, it's creating the wild contrast we see
between drought and floods, leaving us more at risk than ever before.
Links
between interannual
variability of extreme
precipitation and temperatures offer possible observational constraints, especially since the underlying physical mechanisms are relatively well understood (e.g., O'Gorman and Schneider, 2009).