CEOs are also expected to provide
precise forecasts of an uncertain future.
The objective of these models would not be to provide
a precise forecast of the future (an impossible task), but rather to capture enough of the behavior of the educational system to make useful qualitative predictions.
In fact, Scott and others say, even wide - ranging analysis would not provide
a precise forecast of how a child will turn out.
Not exact matches
His
precise and timely
forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer
of The Energy Report.
«In producing the
forecast, the Office
of Budget Responsibility (OBR) has not attempted to predict the
precise outcome
of negotiations, nor the breadth and depth
of new relationships that may be negotiated bilaterally with the EU or other trading partners.
One area
of rapid growth — and a good illustration
of the current trends — is the increased focus on developing geographically
precise climate models that can
forecast conditions one to several years out.
More
precise assessment
of the initial conditions preceding extreme weather events is indispensable in making accurate
forecast calculations.
Concerning climate - change
forecasting, we can not expect that increased computer power and improved climate models will in the future «give more
precise probability distributions
of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales».
The graph below (high - resolution copy) shows the range
of the
forecasts for early September, the point when the sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent, compared to recent years and the average over the period
of precise satellite measurement.
It says these scenarios should be seen as «a plausible range
of outcomes» rather than
precise forecasts.
Tracking sea surface temperature over a long period is arguably the most reliable way researchers know
of measuring the
precise rate at which global temperatures are increasing and improves the accuracy
of our climate change models and weather
forecasts.
Currently, ICPAC runs WRF model for medium range weather
forecasts,
PRECIS model for climate chnage and scenario development; and is in the process
of setting up a Regional Spectral Model (RSM) for downscaling seasonal
forecasts.
Similarly to weather
forecasting, efforts can be made to setup a model to match initial conditions at a certain point in time but they are likely to break down pretty quickly because we lack the quantity and quality
of data to be
precise enough in the setup (and possibly because the chosen model does not accurately produce variability similar to that observed on Earth).
The ocean surface varies in reflectivity and height from moment to moment, and
precise calculation
of tide variations and heights on a moment to moment basis etc is impossible, being based on naive persistence
forecasts of past data.
They are nice tools for illustrating the genesis
of Extremistan, but I insist that the «generator»
of reality does not appear to obey them closely enough to make them helpful in
precise forecasting.»
In view
of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness
of weather observations,
precise, very - long - range weather
forecasting would seem to be non-existent.».
As such, the continual monitoring and periodic updating
of assumptions is necessary for your real estate financial model to remain as
precise a
forecasting tool as possible.