Researchers from the University of Chicago, US, and Yahoo's research labs have created a map) that aims to
predict the election results, based on a simulated market trading system.
Still, it is worth reviewing the methods used to
predict election results and to consider additional ways of getting in touch with public opinion.
With no - one able to
predict the election result, the Westminster rumour mill is dominated by discussion of shadow Cabinet appointments.
«Yes, we are unaware of the fact that political developments in America and Europe have proved political bookmakers wrong and beaten them to their games of
predicting election results based on their scientific approaches to those electioneering processes.
Forget opinion polls, mathematical models have a proven track record of
predicting election results — and for 2008 they have a firm favourite
Not exact matches
In the introduction to a series that will look back at the events leading up to the
election, Silver seems on the defensive somewhat, justifying his analysis of the poll
results and pointing out that he
predicted Clinton would be weak with the Electoral College and that Trump might prevail.
If Donald Trump wins the presidential
election on Tuesday, Citigroup
predicts it will negatively affect the stock market because the
result would come as a surprise to the financial industry.
It is far too early to begin
predicting the
results of the next
election, but this is an opportune moment to examine the changing contours of the Israeli political map, and see to what extent the big stories of the last year have changed Israelis» opinions about the leadership they want for their country.
Although it was
predicted that Smer would win the
election, even Fico himself was surprised by the scale of the
result.
The current endeavor by Tory backbenchers to repeal the Act is based on a simple calculation — most forecasts
predict that the 2015 general
elections will
result in another hung Parliament, in which the joint seat share of the two dominant parties, Labour and the Conservatives, will be eroded even further.
The graphs of the
predicted vote share illustrate the
predicted results of the model and the actual
results of the subsequent national
election and show the predictive power or the model is fairly accurate.
The
result will boost the confidence of observers who
predict Ukip will fail to come first in the European
elections later this year.
Despite opinion polls leading up to the general
election predicting a tight
result, Labour decisively lost the 7 May general
election to the Conservatives.
According to a Telegraph / ICM poll published on 19 April, the upcoming European Parliament
elections lead to a dismal
result for the Conservative party, which is
predicted to finish third, after Labour and UKIP.
Two years ago I developed a simple statistical model that tries to
predict the outcome of general
elections from local
election results.
Despite the close polls and the surge of the Scottish National Party, the UK
election result of a single party majority government is one almost no one
predicted.
The MPLA, which has ruled since Angola's independence from Portugal in 1975, had
predicted it would easily win, but the
result showed a fall in support from the last
election in 2012.
«UKIP makes county council
elections hard to
predict Main Council byelection
results from Thursday»
Did this polling company
predict the correct General
Election result — and then decide not to publish it?
Nick Timothy mocked the Australian
election guru for
predicting on the eve of the
election that the Tories would get a good
result.
It wasn't just Labour and Liberal Democrat activists in despair the morning after the general
election — the polling industry woke up to find itself in crisis after an abject failure to
predict the right
result.
Transport software and services provider Yotta
predicted that the
election result will have some knock on effect to the infrastructure industry.
Ben Ephson, a pollster,
predicted the 2008
election results and previous
elections.
1.22 pm: Anthony Wells at UK Polling Report says that YouGov
predicted the
results of the European
elections more accurately than any of the other pollsters.
The document Smith linked said that Siena had «conveyed blatant misinformation that came nowhere near
predicting actual
Election Night
results.
Polls and commentators had
predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would
result in a second hung parliament similar to the 2010
election.
@democraticaudit
predicts the Euro
elections results for every region in the UK and what seats are too close to call http://t.co/SLzkvnxo2E
Even though some believe that the polls, having got the 2015
election and 2016 Brexit
results wrong, are overstating Labour's figure by
predicting a hung parliament, those polls still point to the Conservatives having the most seats.
RT @MissMillicent: Euro
elections — @democraticaudit
predict the
results for every region in the UK http://t.co/PS98aGXHxC < interesting pr...
Euro
elections — We
predict the European Parliament
election results for every region in the UK http://t.co/SKpbpj6a0e
Euro
elections — We
predict the European Parliament
election results for every region in the UK http://t.co/riv5LX37JE
WHAT IT FOUND: Jeremy Corbyn would be Prime Minister if an
election was held tomorrow, according to the pollster which most accurately
predicted Thursday's
election result.
General
election results 2017 live: Updates and analysis as exit poll
predicts Conservatives will be largest party - but no majority
The reputation of
election polling took a battering after failing to predict the 2015 General Election
election polling took a battering after failing to
predict the 2015 General
ElectionElection result.
Surprises: few but the most avid watcher of local
election results or the most optimistic Liberal Democrat would have
predicted Conservative banker Solihull falling to the Lib Dems in 2005.
Based on the
results, the gap in
predicted national vote share between the Conservatives and Labour has closed since the council
elections last year.
With a month to go until the most unpredictable
election in a generation, all the polls are
predicting a close
result and a probable hung parliament.
Labour is
predicting a close
result next Tuesday when MPs will vote on whether to introduce constituency boundary changes before the general
election, a vote that could prove vital to the outcome.
Despite pollsters» failure to
predict the UK's 2015 general
election result, what you are told people think about Brexit will influence whether you vote — and how
The Republican Party is widely
predicted to win control of the Senate as a
result of today's midterm
elections.
Just like statistician Nate Silver, who famously
predicted the last US
election result, robot journalists are all about data.
London dealer Stephen Friedman will wait to «to observe how the fair unfolds in light of the recent
election result» but remains «positive and buoyant going into the fair, as it is difficult to
predict buying patterns in our industry.
I can't
predict results of the November presidential
election, but I can tell you that women are going to rule the 2016 - 17 art season, with enough having solo museum shows to form an entire White House cabinet, and then some.
Though the back - to - back
elections failed to materialize the
predicted result, voter fatigue is setting in and institutions are growing wary of operating in a stop - and - go climate.
Taleb had received immense accolade for
predicting the black swan events, 2008 crisis, Brexit vote outcome and 2016 US presidential
election results previously.