We show that variations in valuation levels
predict subsequent returns and that this relationship is robust across geographies, strategies, forecast periods, and our choice of valuation metrics.
In a series of articles we published in 2016,1 we show that relative valuations
predict subsequent returns for both factors and smart beta strategies in exactly the same way price matters in stock selection and asset allocation.
The value factor formed on B / P is likely to load on low profitability / junk companies, whereas the aggregate valuation metric may be better at identifying quality and thus may do a better job of
predicting the subsequent return.
Not exact matches
Higher starting yields
predict higher
subsequent long - term
returns.
Opportunity in Equities To many, the understanding that starting bond yields
predict subsequent bond
returns is intuitive and unsurprising.