Two years ago I developed a simple statistical model that tries to
predict the outcome of general elections from local election results.
Not exact matches
Few
predicted the correct
outcome of the 2015
general election but why did the pollsters get it quite so wrong?
With the failure
of traditional forecasting methods to accurately
predict the
outcomes of the UK
General Election of May 2015, can social media based predictions do any better?
French polls accurately
predicted the numbers one through four in the first round
of the Presidential
Elections and Dutch
election polls accurately
predicted the
general election outcomes of March 2017.
Satisfaction with party leaders
of the two main parties would have
predicted the
outcome of the last nine UK
general elections, including the mostrecent.
Psychologists Rob Jenkins and Tony McCarthy from the University
of Glasgow, and Richard Wiseman
of the University
of Hertfordshire, have run a subliminal online experiment with New Scientist to
predict the
outcome of the UK
general election next week.