The general sentiment in the posts so far seems to be that cap and dividend is not something our market would easily or naturally adapt to — and yet everyone seems to think it would be a great idea if one thing or another were different (
the predicted price of oil, the proposed method for delivery of the dividends, the market itself).
In 2008, Jeff Rubin, then an economist with CIBC,
predicted the price of oil would hit $ 225 a barrel in four years.
Unfortunately,
predicting the price of oil is a difficult task indeed.
Not exact matches
Andurand, who runs
oil hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP, wrote in a string
of tweets on Sunday that companies may be less willing to risk investment in long term
oil projects because
of low crude barrel
prices and a
predicted peak in electric vehicle demand.
As crude
prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts
predicted a repeat
of 1986 when U.S.
oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust.
A report from CIBC World Markets recently
predicted the stock market might fall 10 % — 15 % this summer due to a confluence
of factors, including a weak U.S. housing market, increasing fiscal strain, expensive
oil prices, sluggish corporate earnings growth and disruptions in global supply chains stemming from the Japanese crisis.
A number
of analysts have
predicted that the
price of oil could decline to $ 20 in which case the pain is likely to get worse in the short - term here.
Although U.S. crude
oil inventories are at «historically high levels» for this time
of year, according to the Energy Information Adminstration's Weekly Petroleum Status report, Molchanov
predicts inventories will trend lower by the middle
of the year as
prices recover.
Oil prices have been unusually volatile over the last week, so predicting third quarter economic growth is a bit of a fool's errand when we don't have a good feel on what the rest of the third quarter will bring for oil prices (and what we do know is not goo
Oil prices have been unusually volatile over the last week, so
predicting third quarter economic growth is a bit
of a fool's errand when we don't have a good feel on what the rest
of the third quarter will bring for
oil prices (and what we do know is not goo
oil prices (and what we do know is not good).
Jason Kirby at Maclean's wrote about a fellow who foresaw the collapse
of oil prices and now
predicts future assessments
of current data will show the U.S. was in a recession at the start
of 2016.
Battered by the plunging
price of crude, the market is now bracing for what experts
predict will be a flood
of Iranian
oil after the United States and the European Union lifted economic sanctions against Iran.
Among other things, my track record on
predicting rising
oil prices demonstrated that the traditional laws
of supply and demand were no longer working for one
of the economy's most basic and essential commodities.
Miswin Mahesh,
oil analyst at Barclays, agreed that a gradual recovery for
oil markets was «still in place as non-OPEC supply reduces» and
predicted that
prices would not fall below $ 30 a barrel due to the lack
of a deal.
Weakness in the
price of oil hurt the stock's
price in 2015, but Forbes has
predicted a bright future for the company.
You made a lot
of money in your CIBC days
predicting where the
price of oil was going, and you would heap praise on the industry.
He was one
of the first economists to accurately
predict soaring
oil prices back in 2000 and is now one
of the world's most sought - after energy experts.
This is the same Mr. Rubin who
predicted $ 200
oil back in 2006 right before
oil plunged from $ 147 to $ 40 a barrel and subsequently
predicted the demise
of the industry right before the last run - up in
prices.
At this year's Asia - Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore last week, the mood was the most bullish since the 2015 APPEC annual gathering, with most executives polled by Bloomberg
predicting oil prices at $ 50 - $ 60 next year, compared to last - year predictions that we'd be at the low end
of the $ 40 - $ 60 band.
(That's not to say,
of course, that there was ever a good time to invade Ukraine, or that Putin could have
predicted the dramatic decline in Brent
oil prices.)
«Experts» who claim to be able to
predict the future
of stock
prices,
oil prices or company performance are all guessing at best.
The EIA in February reported that Canada pumped an average
of 4.5 million barrels a day in 2015, and
predicted this would rise to 4.8 million in 2017 as
oil sands projects under construction when
oil prices began to fall in 2014 come on line.
Currently sitting at around $ 30 - 35 a barrel, the Canadian Chamber
of Commerce's Crystal Ball Report
predicts that, with supply set to exceed demand, the
price of oil will likely average around $ 35 per barrel throughout 2016, before rising back to around $ 55 throughout 2017.
Jeff, this post is quite a departure from what you
predicted 4 years ago about how demand would outstrip supply and put the
price of oil up.
With the government removing fuel subsidies and
oil marketers refusing to sell diesel at pump
prices, the cost
of doing business in Nigeria is expected to double over the next three months especially as
oil hits a benchmark
price of $ 38 per barrel with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
predicting a further drop to $ 20 per barrel by mid-year.
The commissioner noted that the unpredictable nature
of the
price of crude
oil international
oil market makes it difficult to
predict monthly receipts from the Federation Account for effective planning.
Citigroup energy analyst Tim Evans, who has been tracking
oil and gas markets since the mid 1990s, says some economists erroneously
predicted that most OPEC members would cheat on their commitments and pump above their quotas after
oil prices plummeted from a record $ 147 a barrel last July to the mid - $ 30 range by the end
of 2008.
Two years ago the U.S. Department
of Energy
predicted a resurgence
of coal - fired power plants because
of the rising
price of oil and natural gas.
Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier at the University
of California, Davis, used the share
prices of publicly traded
oil and renewable - energy companies to
predict when the new technologies are likely to be adopted.
That's especially true if the technique involves
predicting the future, or trying to speculate on the
price movements
of volatile commodities like
oil.
The Resource sector, which includes
oil, is one
of the most volatile, and no one can accurately
predict future
oil prices.
In 2014, Madani and Capital Markets Ltd. accurately
predicted the slowing
of the Canadian housing market due to a slump in
oil prices.
As many
of my long time readers know, I've been very successful in
predicting home heating
oil prices over the last 6 or 7 years and readers keep coming back each fall to get my recommendations for the upcoming winter heating season.
Higher gas
prices keep people on the job The
oil and gas industry is big business in the U.S.; the American Petroleum Institute
predicts that the number
of jobs in the sector will increase by 1.3 million through 2030.
The average
price of unleaded is up 3p / litre in the last month alone, and the RAC
predicts that because
oil prices worldwide are rising, it could hit 126.5 p / litre next week - the highest average
price since Oct 2014.
Then, the weeks that followed brought the deep, unexpected plunge in world
oil prices, a crash Ottawa has
predicted will indirectly chew billions
of dollars from its bottom line.
While no one can
predict the future
of oil prices with certainty, there are explanations for the recent
price decline consistent with an ongoing bull market.
But the
price of oil never rose as was
predicted, so the solar plant never became competitive with fossil fuel - based energy production (Carrizo sold its electricity to the local utility for between three and four cents a kilowatt - hour, while a minimum
price of eight to ten cents a kilowatt - hour would be necessary in order for Carrizo to make a profit).»
The predictable (and
predicted) result was that both vehicle CO2 pollution and vehicle
oil use grew dramatically until skyrocketing
oil prices of 2008 shocked American drivers into a revolt, unfortunately nearly killing the US auto industry.
They also
predict, «In 2030, the average real
price of crude
oil is $ 130 per barrel in 2007 dollars.»
That share is likely to fall as
oil prices drop, analysts Energy Intelligence
predict, particularly as biofuels rely on government support, which is waning in some parts
of the world.
The IEA
predicted in its draft report, due to be published next month, that demand would be damped, «reflecting the impact
of much higher
oil prices and slightly slower economic growth».
While doubters were ringing their hands,
predicting doom and catastrophe, and advocating abandonment
of using fossil fuels in favor
of «renewable» sources, market
prices for
oil and gas increased several fold.
In the absence
of a clear and coherent government policy for incorporating plug - ins (and biofuel) into America's transportation system, there could be more frequent
oil price gyrations as traders face the new uncertainty
of trying to
predict how much gasoline Americans are going to consume in their cars and trucks versus how much electricity and how much cellulose and grains.
Oil Production Forecast Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) has released a report predicting that the province will go from 1.32 million barrels of raw bitumen per day in 2007 to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2017 (and who knows, if oil prices stay high, they could ramp it up even more quickl
Oil Production Forecast Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board (ERCB) has released a report
predicting that the province will go from 1.32 million barrels
of raw bitumen per day in 2007 to 3.2 million barrels per day in 2017 (and who knows, if
oil prices stay high, they could ramp it up even more quickl
oil prices stay high, they could ramp it up even more quickly).
The OECD
predicts 2020
oil prices of % 150 to $ 270 / barrel (in 2013 $).
Overall, the
price per barrel
of oil is strong at $ 105 and with current global political instability, particularly in Iraq, Ukraine and Russia, many analysts
predict it will rise to over $ 110 per barrel in Q3.