This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on
predicting weather and climate.
The Met Office and the Hadley Centre is an influential contributor to the IPCC, they are at the heart of climate science in the UK and it is the same computer
predicting the weather and climate.
Broader definitions of the the different patterns and greater effort at determining the specific effect would be far more useful in
predicting the weather and the climate.
Of course, there are some differences — the butterfly effect has a basis in physical reality, so as our understanding of physical processes and the ability to mathematically model them improves, so will our ability to bridge the gap between
predicting weather and climate.
Models that
predict weather and climate don't reconstruct the lives of clouds well, especially storm clouds.
We know more about Earth's climate than any other planet, but using this knowledge to
predict weather and climate on other planets is a true test of how well we actually understand the fundamental physics.
The ONLY way to
predict weather and climate changes is to have millions upon millions of data collecting bots in the air, on the surface, in the sea and also in space, that are all networked together and sending petabytes of data to extremely powerful networked servers to crunch through that data in real time to make predictions.
One of the reasons is because you can not
predict the weather and climate in Virginia.
Not exact matches
Three extreme
weather events in the Amazon Basin in the last decade are giving scientists an opportunity to make observations that will allow them to
predict the impacts of
climate change
and deforestation on some of the most important ecological processes
and ecosystem services of the Amazon River wetlands.
When the
weather - based model developed at Rothamsted Research was used to
predict how
climate change may affect the wheat crops, it was
predicted that wheat flowering dates will generally be earlier
and the incidence of the ear blight disease on the wheat crops will substantially increase.
Professor David Schultz, one of the authors of the guest editorial, said: «One of the long - term effects of
climate change is often
predicted to be an increase in the intensity
and frequency of many high - impact
weather events, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen to be the response to the problem.
«This is clearly an important piece of evidence for the puzzle of trying to detect
and predict global
weather and climate patterns like the PDO,» she says.
Chairwoman Mikulski's CJS Subcommittee funds 85 percent of the science used to monitor
and predict changes in our
weather and climate, so researchers can make policy recommendations to help solve our
climate change crisis.
When the Nobel Prize - winning Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change released a report last November
predicting more extreme
weather, the organizers of collegiate
and professional sports were already one step ahead of the news.
Tropical Pacific
climate variations
and their global
weather impacts may be
predicted much further in advance than previously thought, according to research by an international team of
climate scientists from the USA, Australia,
and Japan.
In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr. Hendrik Tennekes, a scientific pioneer in the development of numerical
weather prediction
and former director of research at The Netherlands» Royal National Meteorological Institute, recently compared scientists who promote computer models
predicting future
climate doom to unlicensed «software engineers.»
Thus,
predicting climate - related changes in teleconnections
and the impact of those changes on local
weather and climate are important areas of ongoing research.
Employs the use of
climate models to better understand the dynamics of
climate systems
and weather and to
predict future
climate.
Secondly, we don't have full information about the current conditions,
and so, like for
weather forecasts, if there are aspects of
climate change that are chaotic, we can't
predict those over the long term.
First, the fact that we Earth has previously experienced floods, severe
weather and droughts in the past does not negate the dangers these events pose, nor the increased damages that will result from increasing frequency of these events
predicted by
climate models.
It isn't possible today (12/28/2006) to confidently
predict the date, intensity
and track for the first hurricane of 2007 (
weather), but forecasts can be made for the 2007 hurricane season (
climate).
(1) In this case even if they were correct
and the models failed to
predict or match reality (which, acc to this post has not been adequately established, bec we're still in overlapping data
and model confidence intervals), it could just as well mean that AGW stands
and the modelers have failed to include some less well understood or unquantifiable earth system variable into the models, or there are other unknowns within our
weather /
climate / earth systems, or some noise or choas or catastrophe (whose equation has not been found yet) thing.
BryanS, So what you are saying is that since we can't
predict weather, we can't
predict climate; that because we have influences that oscillate up
and down
and up
and down that they will trump a forcer that increases monotonically; that because we do not understand everything, we do not understand anything?
FWIW, my best guess is that the difference between
weather (which can not be
predicted reliably for more than a few days no matter how much computing power you throw at it,
and due to the data quantity / quality problem, it may well be technically impossible entirely under real - world conditions)
and climate (which can be much better
predicted on a global scale for a longer period of time with a higher degree of accuracy — still, a few years are the technical limit) is a difference of scale.
Predicting weather and predicting climate change are two very different sciences.
richard — I don't know if you've absorbed what Gavin said, but if not, then: please note that
predicting climate and predicting weather are not the same problem (though of course there are elements in common.)
Related The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which runs one of the critical hubs for
climate analysis, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has just published «guidance for the next U.S. presidential administration
and Congress on the importance of better understanding
and predicting weather, water,
climate,
and other aspects of the Earth system.»
In particular, the report authors
predicted that with
climate change there would be an increase in certain types of extreme
weather, including daily high temperatures, heat waves, heavy precipitation
and droughts, in some places.
Extreme
weather events are known to have serious consequences for human health
and are
predicted to increase in frequency as a result of
climate change.
What is normal is that we can not
predict the
weather and by extension, the
climate.
One does not have to be skeptical about the science of global warming to be skeptical of excessively «certain» long term predictions that involve
weather and climate, the ultimate chaotic system that can not be accurately
predicted.
Further information about Arctic
weather patterns
and climate change will help scientists
predict how the Arctic is impacting
climate change globally, as well as how the Arctic contributes to uncertainty within
climate models.
Science Daily: Aside from rising sea levels, many
climate change models
predict that in the future, the planet's temperature
and weather will become increasingly erratic with wild, unpredictable storms
and fluctuating conditions.
«we can not
predict the
weather and by extension, the
climate».
Bring on the cool
weather —
climate change is
predicted to cause extreme
weather, more intense storms, more frequent floods
and droughts, but could it also cause us to be...
Given the importance of
predicting extreme
weather and its impacts on many aspects of our lives, researchers must continue to unravel connections between
climate change
and weather to help us prepare for the likely ongoing tantrums by Mother Nature.
In fact,
climate models can't model
weather fluctuations on any meaningful scale,
and the various scaled - down models that can often
predict directly contradictory results (I'd suggest doing a search for Joshua Trees on this site).
The GCM models referred to as
climate models are actually
weather models only capable of
predicting weather about two weeks into the future
and as we are aware from our
weather forecasts temperature predictions...
Despite 700 years of these natural extreme
weather swings, Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh blames recent swings on global warming stating, «This is exactly what state - of - the - art
climate models
predicted should have happened,
and what those models project to intensify in the future as global warming continues.»
I made (perhaps foolishly) the unequivocal claim that no models were accurate for
predicting future
weather (
and / or
climate).
Predicting weather and predicting climate are different
and pose different challenges.
Citing the work of Dr. John Christy
and Richard McNider at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), which compared
climate model projections with temperatures measured independently by satellites
and weather balloons, he said «the average warming
predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.»
Climate models are like
weather models for the atmosphere
and land, except they have to additionally
predict the ocean currents, sea - ice changes, include seasonal vegetation effects, possibly even
predict vegetation changes, include aerosols
and possibly atmospheric chemistry, so they are not like
weather models after all, except for the atmospheric dynamics, land surface,
and cloud / precipitation component.
«It is unfortunate that these government agencies both claim to be scientific, with one responsible for the U.S. civilian space program (NASA),
and the other claims its mission is «to understand
and predict changes in
climate,
weather, oceans,
and coasts» (NOAA), ignore the finest scientific temperature data available,» the SEPP chief continued.
His research focusses on understanding
and predicting climate variability
and change in the polar regions, including the response of Arctic extreme
weather to
climate change.
Noting that the current atmospheric concentration of CO2 is higher than it's been in the past 650,000 years, the IPCC
predicts that human - induced
climate change could spell extinction for 20 to 30 percent of the world's species by the end of this century, cause increasingly destructive
weather patterns,
and flood coastal cities.
The frigid
weather, freezing families, record budget deficits, soaring unemployment —
and complete failure of global warming computer models to
predict anything other than «a warmer than normal winter» — have caused a meltdown in Europe's longstanding
climate and energy policies.
So what is left here appears to be an assertion that we can not
predict the
weather for more than a couple of weeks at best,
and that in the < 5 year time frame internally generated effects can swamp a longer term
climate signal.
Climate computer models falsely assume that plant - fertilizing carbon dioxide drives climate change... and predict average global temperatures a full 1 degree F higher than have actually been observed by satellites and weather balloons, a gap that is widening ever
Climate computer models falsely assume that plant - fertilizing carbon dioxide drives
climate change... and predict average global temperatures a full 1 degree F higher than have actually been observed by satellites and weather balloons, a gap that is widening ever
climate change...
and predict average global temperatures a full 1 degree F higher than have actually been observed by satellites
and weather balloons, a gap that is widening every year.
Climate computer models falsely assume that plant - fertilizing carbon dioxide drives climate change... and predict average global temperatures a full 1º F higher than have actually been observed by satellites and weather balloons, a gap that is widening ever
Climate computer models falsely assume that plant - fertilizing carbon dioxide drives
climate change... and predict average global temperatures a full 1º F higher than have actually been observed by satellites and weather balloons, a gap that is widening ever
climate change...
and predict average global temperatures a full 1º F higher than have actually been observed by satellites
and weather balloons, a gap that is widening every year.