Sentences with phrase «prediction against data»

I doubt any professional statistician would be much interested in how you've made your proposal, especially as there is no physical basis whatsoever being proposed which could be the basis of a test of prediction against data.

Not exact matches

He said that if he had to rely on the European Space Agency's limited, difficult - to - access data for his work checking climate model predictions against reality, he'd be «more or less blind» — particularly in the vast, uninhabited stretches of the globe like the Pacific, which are vital for understanding the world climate.

Model simulations can always be improved by testing predictions against field data collected from different ecosystems, and Sulman and Phillips are doing just that: investigating how roots influence soil decomposition and protected forms of carbon in forests that vary in the composition of tree and microbial communities.

The strength of this technique is that the model is continuously fine - tuned — it compares its predictions against the real - world data and self - corrects in near - real time.

How do theoretical predictions of individual fiscal behaviors match up against real - world, real - time data?

By verified, I mean that for a 50 year prediction, you move the start and end dates back in time at 10 or 20 year intervals until you run out of good data to compare against.

Success at prediction is enhanced by maximizing the number of different hypotheses (models) you can generate and test against numerical data and other available information.

That is, I think that you want to exempt your model from testing against future data (by declining to call your model values «predictions» etc), while at the same time claiming that the model values for the future are exceedingly important because that's what the future will be like if CO2 increases continue.

There's an interesting post over at your hero's Anthony W.'s site concerning Hansen's 1988 predictions, with an analysis of how well they're stacking up against real world data.

Likewise, shouldn't someone have been in a position to assess the state of climate models and justify if these were ready to be used to make a prediction, rather than simply be tested against past data?

We both agree that this is a prediction that can be tested against data.

Once people see the record of the past as an estimate or more precisely as a PREDICTION of what should have been recorded, then the next step is clear: create your estimates (predictions) with a reduced dataset, and then test your prediction against heldPREDICTION of what should have been recorded, then the next step is clear: create your estimates (predictions) with a reduced dataset, and then test your prediction against heldprediction against held out data.

There are models that give large CO2 effects, models that give moderate CO2 effects, and models that give large CO2 effects as outputs; but there are no models that have made confirmed accurate predictions against out of sample data.

In the case of complicated models of Earth's atmosphere and oceans, it is true that it is not simple to do controlled experiments, so we must substitute model predictions against reality to judge the model (and by «prediction» I mean what happens in the future, not a data - snooped hind - cast).

Climatology is more like astrophysics, where observational data is matched against predictions from theory.

Would you test this prediction against a piece of observational data from 10 - 17 April?

«Policy carrying potential costs in the trillions of dollars ought not to be based on stories and photos confirming faith in models, but rather on precise and replicable testing of the models» predictions against solid observational data.»

We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modelling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration -LRB-[CO2]-RRB-.