Sentences with phrase «prediction model over»

It is one thing to run a weather prediction model over a continent, test its predictability over the next 1 to seven days, do this every day in parallel over 40 years.

Not exact matches

Time for some brutal honesty... this team, as it stands, is in no better position to compete next season than they were 12 months ago, minus the fact that some fans have been easily snowed by the acquisition of Lacazette, the free transfer LB and the release of Sanogo... if you look at the facts carefully you will see a team that still has far more questions than answers... to better show what I mean by this statement I will briefly discuss the current state of affairs on a position - by - position basis... in goal we have 4 potential candidates, but in reality we have only 1 option with any real future and somehow he's the only one we have actively tried to get rid of for years because he and his father were a little too involved on social media and he got caught smoking (funny how people still defend Wiltshire under the same and far worse circumstances)... you would think we would want to keep any goaltender that Juventus had interest in, as they seem to have a pretty good history when it comes to that position... as far as the defenders on our current roster there are only a few individuals whom have the skill and / or youth worthy of our time and / or investment, as such we should get rid of anyone who doesn't meet those simple requirements, which means we should get rid of DeBouchy, Gibbs, Gabriel, Mertz and loan out Chambers to see if last seasons foray with Middlesborough was an anomaly or a prediction of things to come... some fans have lamented wildly about the return of Mertz to the starting lineup due to his FA Cup performance but these sort of pie in the sky meanderings are indicative of what's wrong with this club and it's wishy - washy fan - base... in addition to these moves the club should aggressively pursue the acquisition of dominant and mobile CB to stabilize an all too fragile defensive group that has self - destructed on numerous occasions over the past 5 seasons... moving forward and building on our need to re-establish our once dominant presence throughout the middle of the park we need to target a CDM then do whatever it takes to get that player into the fold without any of the usual nickel and diming we have become famous for (this kind of ruthless haggling has cost us numerous special players and certainly can't help make the player in question feel good about the way their future potential employer feels about them)... in order for us to become dominant again we need to be strong up the middle again from Goalkeeper to CB to DM to ACM to striker, like we did in our most glorious years before and during Wenger's reign... with this in mind, if we want Ozil to be that dominant attacking midfielder we can't keep leaving him exposed to constant ridicule about his lack of defensive prowess and provide him with the proper players in the final third... he was never a good defensive player in Real or with the German National squad and they certainly didn't suffer as a result of his presence on the pitch... as for the rest of the midfield the blame falls squarely in the hands of Wenger and Gazidis, the fact that Ramsey, Ox, Sanchez and even Ozil were allowed to regularly start when none of the aforementioned had more than a year left under contract is criminal for a club of this size and financial might... the fact that we could find money for Walcott and Xhaka, who weren't even guaranteed starters, means that our whole business model needs a complete overhaul... for me it's time to get rid of some serious deadweight, even if it means selling them below what you believe their market value is just to simply right this ship and change the stagnant culture that currently exists... this means saying goodbye to Wiltshire, Elneny, Carzola, Walcott and Ramsey... everyone, minus Elneny, have spent just as much time on the training table as on the field of play, which would be manageable if they weren't so inconsistent from a performance standpoint (excluding Carzola, who is like the recent version of Rosicky — too bad, both will be deeply missed)... in their places we need to bring in some proven performers with no history of injuries... up front, although I do like the possibilities that a player like Lacazette presents, the fact that we had to wait so many years to acquire some true quality at the striker position falls once again squarely at the feet of Wenger... this issue highlights the ultimate scam being perpetrated by this club since the arrival of Kroenke: pretend your a small market club when it comes to making purchases but milk your fans like a big market club when it comes to ticket prices and merchandising... I believe the reason why Wenger hasn't pursued someone of Henry's quality, minus a fairly inexpensive RVP, was that he knew that they would demand players of a similar ilk to be brought on board and that wasn't possible when the business model was that of a «selling» club... does it really make sense that we could only make a cheeky bid for Suarez, or that we couldn't get Higuain over the line when he was being offered up for half the price he eventually went to Juve for, or that we've only paid any interest to strikers who were clearly not going to press their current teams to let them go to Arsenal like Benzema or Cavani... just part of the facade that finally came crashing down when Sanchez finally called their bluff... the fact remains that no one wants to win more than Sanchez, including Wenger, and although I don't agree with everything that he has done off the field, I would much rather have Alexis front and center than a manager who has clearly bought into the Kroenke model in large part due to the fact that his enormous ego suggests that only he could accomplish great things without breaking the bank... unfortunately that isn't possible anymore as the game has changed quite dramatically in the last 15 years, which has left a largely complacent and complicit Wenger on the outside looking in... so don't blame those players who demanded more and were left wanting... don't blame those fans who have tried desperately to raise awareness for several years when cracks began to appear... place the blame at the feet of those who were well aware all along of the potential pitfalls of just such a plan but continued to follow it even when it was no longer a financial necessity, like it ever really was...

The model significantly improved prediction of response to radiation therapy over the use of Gleason score and lymph - node status alone;

Medvigy and Jeong found that prediction modeling for the entire United States indeed improves dramatically when the analyses include data from macro-scale observations, meaning from multiple sites spread over a large area.

By improving the understanding of how much radiation CO2 absorbs, uncertainties in modelling climate change will be reduced and more accurate predictions can be made about how much Earth is likely to warm over the next few decades.

They then used synthetic satellite data, on how the volcano's exterior ground deformed, to inform the model over time and make predictions.

«It's not all sites and all places at all times, but if we have confidence in the climate model predictions, then according to these theories, we would expect the whole process to accelerate over next few decades,» Veblen said.

The new research used the Met Office Hadley Centre's Decadal Prediction System and found that the model was good at predicting summer Sahel rainfall over the forthcoming five years.

In comparing their computational predictions against the actual historical record provided by the Metaphor Map of English, researchers found that their models correctly forecast about 75 percent of recorded metaphorical language mappings over the past millennium.

Modeling is a useful tool for making predictions about how various biological systems will function over time, Wolz said.

Several of these new structures persisted over time, suggesting a long - lasting trace of memory and confirming an important prediction of the current model.

Furthermore, for reasons still unknown, of the 10 or so models used, different ones make accurate predictions at different latitudes; no single model works over all latitudes, and the mean of all of them is closest to observed data.

He begins by highlighting the evidence of North Carolina's salt marshes because they are a storyline from the past — a period that state lawmakers seem to be emphasizing over future predictions developed by computer models.

«The study provides more realistic modeling estimates of how much vegetation change will occur over the 21st century and will allow better predictions of future climate change,» she said.

To the research team's great surprise, the predictions of the model held up, not just for modern humans, but for over 17 ape and hominin species spread out across millions of years of higher primate evolution and diversification.

«You can imagine looping this process over and over,» says Sadilek, potentially allowing the model to make predictions about every user on Twitter.

Model predictions from the North Atlantic have revealed that over 17 % of the seafloor area below 500 m depth will experience pH reductions exceeding 0.2 units by 2100 because of subduction of high - CO2 waters by thermohaline circulation (Gehlen et al., 2014).

For a given tissue, we perform 3 - repeat -5-fold cross validation with the samples corresponding to the individuals of the training block in order to select the best model, and we generate the predictions over the unseen test set using this model.

The model is used to test the prediction of (Dullemond et al. 2003) that disks around UX Orionis stars must have a self - shadowed shape, and that these disks are seen nearly edge - on, looking just over the edge of a puffed - up inner rim, formed roughly at the dust sublimation radius.

The statistics of the weather make short term climate prediction very difficult — particularly for climate models that are not run with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.

The theory suggests that the disruptive models of blended learning will be the agents of change over the long term, but we placed a caveat on this prediction.

The language model in Jelly Bean adapts over time, and the keyboard features bigram prediction and correction.

As soon as prediction models are introduced, the advantage over long - term buy - and - hold drops to 2 % to 3 %.

This chart describes the range of swells directed at Playa Grande over a normal April, based on 2640 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours).

I think ordinary folks easily mush together models with parameters with parameter values or «settings» with exact predictions of runs under specific settings and with general predictions that pertain to runs over a range of settings (which settings, may or may not encompass the universe of plausibility or «reasonability» and can be its own source of controversy), etc..

My beef is not with the models being wrong, that's to be expected the issue is with people trying to gloss over the discrepancy as a minor issue When David Hataway, leading light of solar physic got his prediction spectacularly wrong on Solar cycle 24.

But if the models don't show much change over the last 100 years, surely the predictions for the future indicate that this area will be hit hard?

The researchers compared predictions of 22 widely used climate «models» — elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global weather system will behave — with actual readings gathered by surface stations, weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.

Is cooling over the short term related to ozone depletion a model prediction?

While RealClimate has called into question the soundness of the paper's quite narrow conclusions of discrepancy between model predictions and measurements of the relative rate of warming of different levels of the atmosphere over the tropics, this paper is being touted by the deniers as showing that the models are wrong to predict any warming at all, and that predictions of future warming and climate change can be entirely discounted.

As far back as November 2013, the CPC and the IRI have predicted an elevated chance of El Niño (relative to historical chance or climatology) based on a combination of model predictions and general trends over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

I think the models have strongly conflicting predictions over a greater area than which they somewhat agree.

The constraining of the atmospheric model affect the predictions where there are no observations because most of the weather elements — except for precipitation — do not change abruptly over short distance (mathematically, we say that they are described by «spatially smooth and slowly changing functions»).

The model was calibrated over the period 1900 - 1960, and the predictions provide reasonable similar evolution of the North - Atlantic tropical cyclones outside this period.

C. Mountain glaciers are in retreat all over the world at low elevations, also matching climate model predictions.

In reality, when we compare apples to apples — El Niño years to El Niño years — we've seen more than 0.3 °C global surface warming over the past 18 years, which is in line with climate model predictions.

Adding the actual data over those 10 years to readjust the model led to a new prediction of 1.9 C which again correctly hindcasts to known results.

Huh, dirty pool like the way increasing confidence has been decidedly promoted over, lets say, the increasing divergence between observation and model prediction?

If I'm not mistaken, the model predictions average temperature over land and sea.

Utterly wrong: the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration cowdungare based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods

Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).

In 1990 the IPCC's central business - as - usual prediction for the medium term was equivalent to 0.28 K per decade, so, on any view, Karl's paper is an admission that the models have been exaggerating by well over double.

First, the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.

Their work encompasses a range of problems and time scales: from five - day model predictions of hurricane track and intensity, to understanding the causes of changes in extremes over the past century, to building new climate prediction models for seamless predictions out to the next several years, to earth system model projections of human - caused changes in various extremes (heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, etc.) over the coming century.

For the tropical tropospheric temperature «anthropogenic signature», global climate model predictions since 1979/81 are already ~ 300 % to high over the satellite range.

If you would like your modeling result to be taken seriously as a guide to future planning (I don't mean to presume to know your motives), then keep track of the squared prediction error, the sum of the squared prediction errors (CUSUM), and the square root of the mean prediction error (RMSE) over the next 20 years.

Are all of the alarmist warmistas in a world - at - risk tizzy over projections of catastrophe by computer models, or are they engaged in making predictions of impending doom, based on models and all manner of other misinterpreted evidence and made up nonsense?

Under those observation, the capacity of such models to give usefull T prediction must be considered as extremely poor, almost regardless to the fitting of T we had over 20th century.

The differences are (1) that you can not afford spatio - temporal resolution of weather models to simulate thousand years forward, and (2) in weather model you don't care if your prediction will blow up in 100 years yielding Venus condition or Ice Ball, you just stop the computer after a week of simulated time, and start over.

This skill must be assessed by predicting global, regional and local average climate, and any climate change that was observed over the last several decades (i.e. «hindcast model predictions»).